Agenda

1. Workforce Opportunities in Wyoming: Developing a Data-driven Approach to Public Sector Investment and EvaluationPresented to The Wyoming Workforce Development CouncilSeptember 11, 2014by Tom Gallagher and Michele HolmesResearch & PlanningWyoming Department of Workforce Serviceshttp://wyomingLMI.gov

2. Agenda • List of High Demand Occupations • National and Regional Demand – Scope of the Market • Local Demand • Directing Training Dollars to Optimize Investment

3. High Demand Occupations

4. Mission: Compile a List of High-Demand, High-Growth Occupations for WWDC

5. Tools to Identify High-Demand, High-GrowthOccupations New Hires Survey • Number of New Hires by Occupation • Wages & Employment / OES Basis • Percentage of Nonresident Workers

6. National Demand

7. High Demand: Enough Supply? • Labor Shortage* -Distinct from high-demand - In absolute terms, too few people to fill employment needs at the prevailing wage - Indicated by a significant rise in real wages across all sectors and occupations *Excerpt from working paper “Occupational Shortages in the Construction Industry” forthcoming by KatelyndFaler, 2014, DWD, R&P

8. High Demand: Enough Supply? • Skills Shortage* • Economic Definition • Too few workers with appropriate skills to fill positions at the prevailing wage • Employer/Social Definition • Too few workers with appropriate skills to fill positions at the wages employers want to pay *Excerpt from working paper“Occupational Shortages in the Construction Industry” forthcoming by KatelyndFaler, 2014, DWD, R&P

9. National and Regional Skills Shortages of Critical Construction Occupations* Receiving Media Attention for Shortage Facing National Skills Shortage, OES-based (Number of States with Real Median Hourly Wage Increases) OES-based *Excerpt from working paper: Occupational Shortages in the Construction Industry forthcoming by KatelyndFaler, 2014, DWS, R&P.

10. Regional Demand

11. Regional Demand in Selected States from 2012 to 2022: If We Train Them, Will They Come?

12. Local Demand

13. Training for What?Nonresidents in Wyoming’s Labor Market Nonresidents: “Individuals without a Wyoming‐issued driver's license or at least four quarters of work history in Wyoming.” -Jones, 2002; http://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/1102/a2.htm New Hire: “Someone who, during a particular quarter, started working for an employer he or she had not worked for since at least 1992, the first year for which R&P has wage records.” - Knapp, 2011; http://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/0211/a2.htm

14. Training for What?Nonresidents in Wyoming’s Labor Market 2011Q4-2013Q3: 218,308 New Hires in Wyoming 32,843 (15.0%) Were Nonresidents Often hired to fill low-skill, low-wage jobs Nonresident New Hires, 2011Q4-2013Q3: • Combined Food Prep. & Serving Workers, Including Fast Food ($8.00) • Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners ($8.50) • Construction Laborers ($13.00) • Waiters & Waitresses ($3.50) • Cashiers ($8.50) • Restaurant Cooks ($10.00) Prepared by M Moore, Research & Planning, WY DWS

15. Training for What?Training Opportunities in Wyoming Occupations Meeting Three Selected R&P Criteria: • Occupations requiring more than a high school diploma • Relatively high paying jobs ($15/hour or more) • Employers relying on nonresident workers (at least 20% of all new hires) Prepared by M Moore, Research & Planning, WY DWS

16. Training for What?Nonresidents in Wyoming’s Labor Market Examples of Occupations Meeting these Three Criteria Operating Engineers & Other Construction Equipment Specialists (SOC 47-2073) Total new hires: 3,316 Nonresident new hires: 646 (20.0% of total) Education: Postsecondary Certificate Average Hourly Wage: $19.81 Construction Managers (SOC 11-9021) Total new hires: 346 Nonresident new hires: 147 (42.4% of total) Education: Bachelor’s Degree Average Hourly Wage: $43.26 Prepared by M Moore, Research & Planning, WY DWS

17. Training for What? 42.4% of all new hires were nonresidents Average hourly wage: $43.26 100.0% of employers were satisfied with new hires’ skills Retention Rate: 88.5% of these new hires were still working for that employer one quarter later Prepared by M Moore, Research & Planning, WY DWS

18. Training for What?Nonresidents in Wyoming’s Labor Market Example of an Occupation NOT Meeting These Three Criteria Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing (SOC 41-4012) Total new hires: 1,066 Nonresident new hires: 71 (6.7% of total) Education: Postsecondary Certificate Average Hourly Wage: $19.23 Prepared by M Moore, Research & Planning, WY DWS

19. Training for What? 6.7% of all new hires were nonresidents Average hourly wage: $19.23 76.1% of employers were satisfied with new hires’ skills 92.7% of these new hires were still working for that employer one quarter later Prepared by M Moore, Research & Planning, WY DWS

20. New Hires Survey: Employer Practicehttp://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/newhires.htm Allows us to examine: • Entry level wages • Hours Worked • Job skills • Benefits • Educational and licensing requirements • Turnover and retention • Demographics Prepared by M Moore, Research & Planning, WY DWS

21. Demographics and Retirement Trends / Replacement Need

22. Demographics and Retirement Trends / Replacement Need

23. Wyoming at Work

24. Training Dollars & Evaluating Investment

25. Program Evaluation • Hathaway Scholarship Program • Workforce Development Training Fund • WyIN (Wyoming Investment in Nursing)

26. Monitoring the Investment • Workforce opportunities list endorsed September 2014 • First trainees enter program 4th Quarter 2014 • 4th Quarter 2015: did trainee get job? • 1st Quarter 2016: where are they employed? • Evaluation needs to be built in up front, otherwise necessary data are missing & program evaluation is costly

27. Research & Planning Wyoming Department of Workforce ServicesP.O. Box 2760246 S. Center St. Casper, WY 82601(307) 473-3807 DWS-RESEARCHPLANNING@wyo.gov http://wyomingLMI.org Tom Gallagher Manager tom.gallagher@wyo.gov