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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 12 March 2012. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 12 March 2012 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days, above-average rainfall was observed over the western Amazon basin, most of Peru and portions of central Argentina. Below-average rainfall was observed over the southern half of Brazil, Paraguay and northeastern Argentina. • For Days 1-7 (12-18 March 2012), above-average rainfall is predicted over portions of Southeast Brazil, the western Amazon basin, Ecuador and most of Peru. Below-average rainfall is predicted over the central Amazon basin and southern Brazil. • For Days 8-14 (19-25 March 2012), above-average rainfall is predicted over Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, the western Amazon basin, and most of Peru. Below-average rainfall is predicted over the eastern Amazon basin.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, above-average rainfall was observed over the western Amazon basin, most of Peru and portions of central Argentina. Below-average rainfall was observed over the southern half of Brazil, Paraguay and northeastern Argentina.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, above-average rainfall was observed over the northern and northwestern Amazon basin, most of Peru, Bolivia, northern Paraguay, and most of Argentina, except for the extreme northern sections. Below-average rainfall was seen over most of southeastern and southern Brazil, and extreme northern Argentina.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall totals are below average over the southern Amazon basin. They are also below average over the Brazilian Plateau, the core monsoon region. • 90-day totals are significantly below average in southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies Below-average SSTs are present in much of the tropical central Pacific Ocean, with positive SST anomalies to the east and the west. (For more details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 4-10 March 2012, anomalous cyclonic circulation (C) was observed over western Brazil. Anomalous anticyclonic circulation (A) was observed over eastern Argentina • Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was seen over the western Amazon basin, and anomalous sinking motion was observed over eastern and southern Brazil. C A Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period of 4-10 March 2012, temperatures were much-above average in southern Brazil, Paraguay and northeastern Argentina. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 12 March 2012 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 12 March 2012 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (12-18 March 2012), above-average rainfall is predicted over portions of Southeast Brazil, the western Amazon basin, Ecuador and most of Peru. Below-average rainfall is predicted over the central Amazon basin and southern Brazil. • For Days 8-14 (19-25 March 2012), above-average rainfall is predicted over Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, the western Amazon basin, and most of Peru. Below-average rainfall is predicted over the eastern Amazon basin.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 27 February 2012 Valid 4-10 Mar 2012 Forecast from 4 Mar 2012 Valid 4-10 Mar 2012 Observed 4-10 Mar 2012 Unavailable Unavailable

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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