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Making Sense of the 2012 Transportation Tax Referendum

Making Sense of the 2012 Transportation Tax Referendum. Presented by Beth S. Schapiro, PhD beth@schapirogroup.com GAMPO December 6, 2011. Evaluating Polling Data. Source of the Poll. Who conducted the survey? Who commissioned it?. Methodology. Telephone

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Making Sense of the 2012 Transportation Tax Referendum

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  1. Making Sense of the 2012 Transportation Tax Referendum • Presented by • Beth S. Schapiro, PhD • beth@schapirogroup.com • GAMPO • December 6, 2011

  2. Evaluating Polling Data

  3. Source of the Poll • Who conducted the survey? • Who commissioned it?

  4. Methodology • Telephone • Live callers or Interactive Voice Response (IVR) • Online

  5. Voter Sample • Who was polled? • Likely voters, registered voters, or all adults? • Demographics: geography, political party identification • How many were polled? • Margin of sampling error

  6. Poll Content • What questions were asked? • How were they worded?

  7. Comparison to Other Survey Findings • Trends • Are these findings consistent with other recent polls?

  8. 2012 Situation Analysis

  9. Voters • Low turnout expected • No major statewide campaigns • Will vary by region • Contested Congressional primaries • Metro Atlanta multi-million dollar campaign • Primary voters are generally the base voters of each party • Voters not in a very good mood

  10. Political Dynamics • Unique referendum • Asking voters to vote for both personal interest and regional good • First time project selection process • Lots of moving parts and political interests to be served

  11. What It Will Take to Win

  12. Components of Successful Campaign • Broad coalition of supporters • Well-organized with strong leadership, effective message, and solid campaign plan • Identify and communicate with targeted voters

  13. Components of Successful Campaign • Comprehensive program for communicating with voters • “Earned” media, paid advertising, social media, direct mail • Must have transparency and complete and accurate information about projects

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