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@TexasDemography

Demographic Characteristics and Trends in Texas and North Texas. Members’ CPE Day, Fort Worth Chapter – TSCPA. Fort Worth, Texas. June 20, 2017. @TexasDemography. Growing States, 2000-2016. Numeric Change 2010-2016 (millions). 2000. 2010. 2016. Percent Change 2010-2016.

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@TexasDemography

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  1. Demographic Characteristics and Trends in Texas and North Texas Members’ CPE Day, Fort Worth Chapter – TSCPA Fort Worth, Texas June 20, 2017 @TexasDemography

  2. Growing States, 2000-2016 Numeric Change 2010-2016 (millions) 2000 2010 2016 Percent Change 2010-2016 Population (millions) Population (millions) Population (millions) United States 281.4 20.8 308.7 25.1 323.1 27.8 14.3 2.7 4.7% 10.8% Texas California 33.8 37.2 39.2 1.9 5.4% Florida 15.9 18.8 20.6 1.8 9.6% Georgia 8.2 8.0 5.8 5.1 9.7 9.5 6.7 6.4 10.3 10.1 7.3 6.9 .6 .6 .6 .5 6.4% 6.4% 8.4% 8.4% North Carolina Washington Arizona Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2016 Population Estimates.

  3. Total Population in Texas, 1950 Total Population in Texas, 1950- -2016 (millions) 2016 (millions) 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 4.3 5.0 3.9 3.0 2.8 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 All values for the decennial dates are for April 1stof the indicated census year. Values for 2012-2016 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates

  4. Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010 Migration Natural Increase 10.5% 10.5% 13.3% 13.3% 34.1% 34.1% 46.3% 46.3% 50.3% 50.3% 58.5% 58.5% 89.5% 89.5% 86.7% 86.7% 65.9% 65.9% 53.7% 53.7% 49.7% 49.7% 41.5% 41.5% 1950s 1950s 1960s 1960s 1970s 1970s 1980s 1980s 1990s 1990s 2000s 2000s Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

  5. Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2016 tl_2010_48_county10 POPESTIMATE2016 Sherman Ochiltree Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Moore Hartley 113 - 10,000 Roberts Hutchinson Potter Hemphill Oldham Carson Wheeler Gray 10,001 - 50,000 Collingsworth Donley Randall Armstrong Deaf Smith 50,001 - 100,000 Swisher Hall Parmer Childress Castro Briscoe Hardeman Lamb Wilbarger 100,001 - 500,000 Motley Cottle Floyd Hale Bailey Wichita Foard Montague Grayson Lubbock Dickens Cochran Red River Lamar Clay King Cooke Knox Baylor Archer Hockley Crosby Fannin 500,001 - 4,589,928 Bowie Throckmorton Haskell Franklin Delta Kent Collin Yoakum Jack Denton Wise Titus Hopkins Garza Terry Lynn Young Hunt Stonewall Cass Morris Rains Camp Upshur Borden Rockwall Stephens Palo Pinto Parker Marion Harrison Gregg Jones Wood Tarrant Scurry Fisher Gaines Dawson Dallas Van Zandt Shackelford Kaufman Hood Johnson Smith Martin Mitchell Taylor Nolan Ellis Eastland Andrews Erath Henderson Somervell Rusk Callahan Howard Panola Navarro Cherokee Ector Hill Midland Coke Comanche Runnels Sterling Bosque Loving El Paso Shelby Anderson Winkler Ward Glasscock Brown Hamilton Mills Coleman Concho ? Freestone McLennan Nacogdoches San Augustine Houston Angelina Upton 86% Hudspeth Crane Tom Green Culberson Coryell Leon Irion Falls Robertson McCulloch Reeves San Saba Lampasas Sabine Reagan Trinity Bell Jasper Burnet Schleicher Madison Menard Mason Milam Polk Tyler Pecos Crockett Jeff Davis Llano Walker Brazos Newton Williamson Grimes San Jacinto Sutton Kimble Burleson Washington Blanco Lee Gillespie Hardin Travis Montgomery Orange Terrell Edwards Bastrop Caldwell Hays Kerr Presidio Liberty Kendall Waller Austin Val Verde Fayette Real Harris Comal Brewster Bandera Jefferson Chambers Guadalupe Colorado Lavaca Fort Bend Bexar Galveston Gonzales Medina Uvalde Kinney Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Zavala Jackson Victoria Maverick Karnes Atascosa Frio Matagorda Goliad La Salle Live Oak Calhoun Dimmit Bee Refugio San Patricio McMullen Aransas Jim Wells Nueces Webb Duval Kleberg Brooks Jim Hogg Zapata Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  6. Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2016 Dallam Sherman Ochiltree Lipscomb 96 counties lost population over the 6 year period. Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore Roberts Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler Deaf Smith Randall Donley Collingsworth Armstrong Parmer Castro Briscoe Hall Childress Swisher Hardeman Wilbarger Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Wichita Foard Clay Lamar Red River Cooke Grayson Fannin Montague Cochran Hockley Crosby Dickens Baylor Archer King Knox Bowie Lubbock Delta Titus Jack Wise Denton Collin Hopkins Yoakum Cass Terry Lynn Garza Kent Young Hunt Haskell Morris Franklin Stonewall Throckmorton Rockwall Rains Marion Wood Upshur Dallas Tarrant Parker Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher StephensPalo Pinto Shackelford Jones Kaufman Harrison Van Zandt Gregg Smith Hood Somervell Johnson Eastland Ellis Andrews Martin Mitchell Nolan Taylor Panola Henderson Erath Callahan Rusk Howard Glasscock Navarro El Paso Hill Comanche Loving Shelby Cherokee Nacogdoches San Augustine Bosque Ector Coke Winkler Midland Anderson Sterling Brown Coleman Freestone Runnels Hamilton Limestone McLennan Hudspeth Ward Culberson Mills Sabine Crane Coryell Tom Green Houston Upton Reagan Angelina Leon Reeves Irion Falls Concho McCulloch Lampasas Trinity San Saba Robertson Bell Madison Burnet Newton Tyler Schleicher Polk Jasper Menard Milam Walker Pecos Jeff Davis Brazos Crockett Mason Llano Williamson San Jacinto Grimes Burleson Kimble Sutton Hardin Montgomery Travis Lee Gillespie Blanco Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Waller Liberty Presidio Hays Kerr Jefferson Edwards Kendall Austin Harris Fayette Val Verde Caldwell Real Comal Guadalupe Chambers Brewster Bandera Colorado Fort Bend Galveston Gonzales Bexar Lavaca Uvalde Medina Kinney Wharton Brazoria -2,010 - 0 Wilson DeWitt Jackson Karnes Atascosa Frio Zavala Matagorda Victoria Maverick Goliad 1 - 1,000 McMullen Calhoun Bee Dimmit Live Oak Refugio La Salle Aransas San Patricio 1,001 - 20,000 Jim Wells Webb Nueces Duval Kleberg 20,001 - 100,000 Brooks Zapata Jim Hogg Kenedy 100,001 - 497,469 Starr Willacy Hidalgo 6 Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  7. Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2016 Dallam Sherman Ochiltree Lipscomb Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore Roberts Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler Deaf Smith Randall Donley Collingsworth Armstrong Parmer Castro Briscoe Hall Childress Swisher Hardeman Wilbarger Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Wichita Foard Clay Lamar Red River Cooke Grayson Fannin Montague Cochran Hockley Crosby Dickens Baylor Archer King Knox Bowie Lubbock Delta Titus Jack Wise Denton Collin Hopkins Yoakum Cass Terry Lynn Garza Kent Young Hunt Haskell Morris Franklin Stonewall Throckmorton Rockwall Rains Marion Wood Upshur Dallas Tarrant Parker Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher StephensPalo Pinto Shackelford Jones Kaufman Harrison Van Zandt Gregg Smith Hood Somervell Johnson Eastland Ellis Andrews Martin Mitchell Nolan Taylor Panola Henderson Erath Callahan Rusk Howard Glasscock Navarro El Paso Hill Comanche Loving Shelby Cherokee Nacogdoches San Augustine Bosque Ector Coke Winkler Midland Anderson Sterling Brown Coleman Freestone Runnels Hamilton Limestone McLennan Hudspeth Ward Culberson Mills Sabine Crane Coryell Tom Green Houston Upton Reagan Angelina Leon Reeves Irion Falls Concho McCulloch Lampasas Trinity San Saba Robertson Bell Madison Burnet Newton Tyler Schleicher Polk Jasper Menard Milam Walker Pecos Jeff Davis Brazos Crockett Mason Llano Williamson San Jacinto Grimes Burleson Kimble Sutton Hardin Montgomery Travis Lee Gillespie Blanco Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Waller Liberty Presidio Hays Kerr Jefferson Edwards Kendall Austin Harris Fayette Val Verde Caldwell Real Comal Guadalupe Chambers Brewster Bandera Colorado Fort Bend Galveston Gonzales Bexar Lavaca Uvalde Medina Kinney Wharton -4.8% - 0% Brazoria Wilson DeWitt Jackson Karnes Atascosa Frio Zavala Matagorda Victoria Maverick Goliad 0.1% - 2.5% McMullen Calhoun Bee Dimmit Live Oak Refugio La Salle Aransas San Patricio 2.6% - 5% Jim Wells Webb Nueces Duval Kleberg 5.1% - 10% Brooks Zapata Jim Hogg Kenedy 10.1% - 18.1% Starr Willacy Hidalgo 7 Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  8. Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2015-2016 Percent of Change from Natural Increase 79.9% 44.4% 44.6% 79.9% 23.9% 24.8% 25.8% 44.2% 20.3% 18.5% 113.5% Percent Change from International Migration 48.1% 17.9% 16.1% 41.0% 9.0% 15.8% 15.5% 22.5% 5.6% 8.0% 19.9% U.S. Rank Population Change Population Change Percent Change from Domestic Migration -27.9% 37.7% 39.3% -20.9% 67.1% 59.4% 58.7% 33.3% 74.1% 73.5% -33.4% County Harris Tarrant Bexar Dallas Denton Fort Bend Collin Travis Williamson Montgomery Hidalgo* Hidalgo County had negative net migration (-13.5% of total population growth). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates 2 5 7 9 56,587 35,462 33,198 29,209 27,689 27,388 26,506 24,505 20,659 19,769 10,529 11 13 14 17 22 24 54

  9. Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2015-2016 2015-2016 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Domestic Migration Percent Change from International Migration County U.S. Rank 2 3 6 14 18 24 25 28 36 42 50 Kendall Hays Comal Williamson Fort Bend Montgomery Rockwall Denton Kaufman Bastrop Ellis 5.2% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.4% 3.1% 3.1% 95.9% 82.2% 88.5% 74.1% 59.4% 73.5% 82.2% 67.1% 81.3% 83.5% 78.1% 4.0% 1.8% 2.0% 5.6% 15.8% 8.0% 2.5% 9.0% 2.2% 0.7% 2.6% *Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  10. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2015 2000 and 2015 2015 2000 Hispanic, 32% Hispanic, 39% NH White, 43% NH White, 53% NH Black, 11% NH Other, 1% NH Black, 12% NH Other, 2% NH Asian, 3% NH Asian, 5% 11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2015 Population Estimates

  11. Frisco City Ethnicity Frisco.com White 75% Hispanic or Latino 12.1% Mexican 8.4% White Alone, Not Hispanic 67.2% Black/African American 8.1% Asian 10% 2 or More Races 3.1% Total Minority Population 34.9% 11

  12. Frisco & Little Elm ISD’s Ethnicity ISD Web Sites Frisco ISD 47.70% Little Elm 37.49% White Asian 23.84% 2.89% Hispanic 13.65% 39.9% African American 10.52% 15.5% 2 or more races 3.65% 3.4% American Indian/Alaskan 0.56% .3% Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 0.08% .3% 12

  13. Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2014 250,000 White (non-Hispanic) 200,000 Hispanic 150,000 Population 100,000 50,000 0 Age 13 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

  14. Domestic and International Net Migration for the Top Five Growth States, 2013-14 Georgia 22,106 24,818 Arizona 41,975 14,234 California -32,090 161,318 Texas 154,467 84,637 Florida 138,546 112,306 Domestic Migration International Migration Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2015 14

  15. Top 10 Gross Migration States for Domestic Migration to Texas, 2013 14,715 Georgia 18,924 14,803 New York 21,129 15,504 New Mexico 22,049 18,428 Arizona 19,451 23,141 Colorado 19,139 12,719 Illinois 30,672 22,259 Louisiana 28,457 19,988 Florida 33,321 29,051 Oklahoma 28,906 31,499 California 62,386 Out-Migrants From Texas In-Migrants to Texas 15 U.S. Census Bureau ACS 1-Year PUMS,2013

  16. Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2013

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  21. Percent of Population Below Poverty Threshold, Texas, 2010-2015 Percent below poverty level 2015 Difference 2010 AGE Under 18 years -2.7% 25.7% 23.0% 18 to 64 years -1.8% 15.6% 13.8% 65 years and over -0.4% 10.7% 10.3% 21 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010 and 2015 1 Year Samples

  22. Percent of Population Below Poverty Threshold, Texas, 2010-2015 Percent below poverty level 2015 Difference 2010 Race Alone Race Alone Black or African American Black or African American 24.8% 24.8% 21.4% 21.4% -3.4% Asian Asian 12.6% 12.6% 10.6% 10.6% -2.0% Hispanic or Latino origin (of Hispanic or Latino origin (of any race) any race) White alone, not Hispanic or White alone, not Hispanic or Latino Latino 26.8% 26.8% 22.8% 22.8% -4.0% 9.3% 9.3% 8.6% 8.6% -0.7% 22 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010 and 2015 1 Year Samples

  23. Percent of Population Below Poverty Threshold, Texas, 2010-2015 Percent below poverty level 2015 Difference 2010 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Population 25 years and over Population 25 years and over 13.1% 13.1% 12.0% 12.0% -1.1% Less than high school graduate Less than high school graduate 29.1% 29.1% 26.2% 26.2% -2.9% High school graduate (includes High school graduate (includes equivalency) equivalency) 14.7% 14.7% 14.2% 14.2% -0.5% Some college, associate's Some college, associate's degree degree Bachelor's degree or higher Bachelor's degree or higher 9.5% 9.5% 9.4% 9.4% -0.1% 3.9% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 0.2% 23 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010 and 2015 1 Year Samples

  24. Projected Population Growth in Texas, Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010 2010- -2050 2050 55 Zero Migration 50 0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration 45 2000-2010 Migration 40 Millions 35 30 25 20 24 Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

  25. Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2015 28 Zero Migration 28 0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration 2000-2010 Migration 27 Estimates 27 26 Millions 26 25 25 24 25 Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

  26. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2024 2040 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 No Migration 1/2 2000-2010 2000-2010 26

  27. Population Estimates and Projections, Metroplex Counties, 2010-2015 4000000 3500000 Collin .5 Denton .5 Collin Denton Collin Est. Denton Est. 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 27

  28. Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 NH-White 20,000,000 NH-Black 15,000,000 Hispanic NH-Other 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 28 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

  29. Percent of Civilian Labor Force by Occupation, Texas, 2008, 2014 and 2014-2008 Difference 14.0% 12.3% 12.0% 12.0% 9.9% 10.0% 9.3% 7.7% 8.0% 6.8% 6.0% 5.3% 4.7% 4.4% 4.4% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 2.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% -0.3% -0.4% -0.9% -2.0% 2008 2014 Difference 2014-2008 29 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2008, 2010, 2014

  30. Percent Distribution of Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2008, 2011, and 2015 100% Graduate or Professional Degree 8.3% 8.7% 9.7% 90% Bachelor Degree 17.1% 17.7% 18.7% 80% 54.2% 70% 57.1% Some College or Associate Degree 28.8% 60% 29.1% 28.7% Percent High School or Equivelent 50% 40% Less than High School 25.4% 25.5% 25.3% 30% 45.8% 42.9% 20% 20.4% 10% 18.9% 17.6% 0% 2008 2011 Year 2015 30 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples, 2008-2015

  31. Educational Attainment of Persons Age 25 Years and Older by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2015 Bachelor, Graduate, Professional Degree 100% 13.2% 15.0% 90% 22.4% Some College or Associate Degree 37.2% 80% 22.7% 24.0% 57.7% 70% 60% 36.3% High School or Equivelant 27.6% 50% 27.5% 32.2% 40% 15.9% 30% 29.6% Less than High School 20% 14.2% 23.9% 36.5% 33.6% 10% 12.2% 11.8% 6.7% 0% Black Asian Non-Hispanic White Hispanic All Other 31 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2015

  32. Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above 100% 95% 90% 85% White 80% Black 75% Hispanic 70% Other 65% 60% 55% 50% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

  33. Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas 35.0% 2011 ACS 31.3% 29.9% 30.0% 2030 Constant 2011 % Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 24.0% 23.8% 25.0% 20.1% 20.0% 18.7% 18.1% 15.0% 15.0% 9.8% 9.3% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario 33

  34. Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 40.0% 2011 ACS 34.3% 35.0% 31.3% 2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend) 30.0% Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 23.8% 25.0% 22.1% 20.4% 20.1% 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% 11.8% 11.4% 9.8% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Degree These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Educational Attainment Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario 34

  35. Teen (ages 15-19 years) birth rates, the U.S. and select states, 2014 Area Rank Birth Rate Per 1,000 Women UnitedStates Arkansas Oklahoma Mississippi New Mexico Texas West Virginia Louisiana Kentucky Tennessee Alabama Wyoming Arizona South Carolina Nevada District of Columbia 24.2 39.5 38.5 38.0 37.8 37.8 36.6 35.8 35.3 33.0 32.0 30.1 29.9 28.5 28.5 28.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 35

  36. Summary of Trends • Continuation of Major population growth & urbanization • Minority Majority will increase • Outsourcing, automation, migration & immigration will supply skilled labor shortage 1. future jobs require higher technical, thinking, & analytical skills • Service sector will continue to grow and blue collar jobs will decrease. • Implications: need for physical & human infrastructure investment 36

  37. Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Office: (210) 458-6530 Email: Lloyd.Potter@utsa.edu Internet: demographics.texas.gov @TexasDemography 37

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