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The Value of Measurements and Where they Apply

The Value of Measurements and Where they Apply . Data Requirements for Evaluation of Population Policy Liezl Coetzee Southern Hemisphere Consultants liezl@southernhemisphere.co.za. Context. South African Population Policy Adopted by Parliament in April 1998

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The Value of Measurements and Where they Apply

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  1. The Value of Measurements and Where they Apply Data Requirements for Evaluation of Population Policy Liezl Coetzee Southern Hemisphere Consultants liezl@southernhemisphere.co.za

  2. Context • South African Population Policy • Adopted by Parliament in April 1998 • Follows on International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) - Cairo 1994 • Shift to Developmental Focus • Coincides with new political dispensation • Evaluating policy impact • Data Requirements & Challenges

  3. Overview • Population Policy and Development • Goal & Objectives • Implementation – multi stakeholder process • Shift in emphasis: Demographics to Development • Population & Development – impacts, linkages & strategies • Data requirements • Link demographic & development variables • Review of assessments • Challenges to measuring ‘Impact’

  4. Policy goal & Objectives • Objectives: • Ensure systematic integration of population factors into all policies, plans, programs and strategies aimed at enhancing quality of life at all levels and in all sectors; • Ensure a coordinated, multi-sectoral, interdisciplinary & integrated approach in design and implementation of programs & interventions that impact on major national population concerns. • Ensure availability of reliable, up-to-date information on population and human development situation to inform policy making & program design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation at all levels and in all sectors; • Goal: “Bring about changes in the determinants of the country’s population trends, so that these trends are consistent with the achievement of sustainable human development.”

  5. Population Policy Implementation • Implemented by National & Provincial Population Units (Dept. Social Development) • Multi-sectoral & multi disciplinary • Collaboration of all departments + civil society partners • Integrate population issues in policies, programmes & projects • Address population concerns in sustainable development context • Challenges to co-ordinating implementing partners.

  6. Shift in emphasis • Former focus • fertility, mortality, family planning – quantitative demographic targets to measure success • New focus • impacts of demographics on development – qualitative indicators to measure living standards • Implications for monitoring & evaluating impact… • How to measure “development”?

  7. Population Policy Strategies • Population and human development: • poverty reduction • environmental sustainability • health, mortality and fertility • gender, women, youth and children • education • employment • migration and urbanization. • Policy implementation capacity: • co-ordination and capacity building for integrating population and development planning • advocacy and population information, education and communication (IEC) • data collection and research.

  8. Population Policy & Data • Capacity for implementation weak i.t.o. • Availability of data & information • Institutional & technical capacity. • To build capacity, the policy set an objective • To “Ensure availability of reliable, up-to-date information on the population and human development situation to inform policy making & program design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation at all levels and in all sectors.” • Emphasis on availability of information to inform policy making.

  9. Population Policy Impact Assessment • M&E Requirements • Investigation of the mutual impact of development variables on population variables, and vice versa • Monitoring and evaluation of dynamics between variables • Interventions to influence these interrelationships • Policy Impact assessments to date • 2000, 2004 - Key findings related to data • 2008 • Key findings related to implementation & data • Impacts over 10 years?

  10. 2000 – Evaluation of Policy Strategies • Co-ordination and capacity building for integrating population and development planning • Advocacy And Population Information, Education And Communication • Poverty Reduction • Environmental Sustainability • Health, Mortality And Fertility • Gender, Women, Youth And Children • Education • Employment • Migration And Urbanization • Data Collection And Research

  11. 2000 – Key Findings:Data Collection And Research • Programs do not support the essence of the population policy strategy on data collection and research: • Lack of commitment, technical capacity and mechanisms to promote an integrated approach for data and information management • Little if any sharing and mutual utilization of data and information. Systems developed in different departments inaccessible for other users outside the department. • Little evidence of ways to ensure that primary data and information are further analyzed and interpreted for use by secondary users • “Silo planning” • Need analyzed and interpreted population information in user-friendly and accessible formats.

  12. 2004 Evaluation • Population size, structure and distribution • Fertility rates and trends • Morbidity and mortality trends • Migration & Urbanization Trends • Achievements and challenges • Gender, Women, Children and Youth; Health; Employment; Poverty; Education; Environmental sustainability and natural resources • Coordination & Capacity building • Data collection and research • Population and development information • Population and development research, trends analysis, monitoring and evaluation • Population units • Advocacy and Information, Education And Communication

  13. 2004 – Key Findings: Data • Data gathering • Population and Development Information Service (Dept Social Development, 1999) • National Statistics System • Information Sharing • Southern Africa Research on Poverty Network (SARPN) • Housing and Urbanisation Information System (HUIS) • Municipal Demarcation Board databases • Education Management Information System, National Centre for Curriculum Research and Development • Research initiatives around population and development issues: • Government Departments • Academic institutions • “Progress has been made with the implementation of the policy, in all sectors.”

  14. 2008 Assessment • Examine extent to which “population & development situation” changed since early 1990s, in context of new political dispensation. • Themes: • Introduction: Overview of population trends and dynamics in the country • HIV/Aids • Sexual and reproductive health and rights • Youth • Children and families • Migration and urbanization • Gender equality, equity & empowerment of women • Population, environment and development • Poverty & inequality, • Population & development research, technical capacity development and institutional arrangements for policy implementation

  15. Key findings – Implementation • Indicators : • Output performance indicators & targets for implementation, not suitable for measuring ‘impact’ • Institutional system • Numerous initiatives : Research, Advocacy, Capacity Building • Significant activity & output, relevant projects • Appropriate synergies • Points to effective institutional system for policy implementation. • But doesn’t measure… Impact…

  16. 2008 – Key Findings – Data • Data quality & collection procedures serious problems • Questionable validity • Comparability of datasets difficult • No numerical targets in 1998 Population Policy, • difficult to evaluate progress made in implementation; problem of attribution. • What do we know and what don’t we? • What we know… • Proportions • And what we don’t… • Actual numbers • E.g’s: Population size, growth estimates, migration

  17. 2008 – Key Findings – Impact • Human Development Index (HDI) • Lifespan, Education, Income • SA’s performance: • Up 1975 – 1995 • Down 1995 – 2005 (policy period…) • HDI unpacked • Life expectancy down (HIV…) • Education up (and then?) • Income up (but is it sustainable?)

  18. Life expectancy • Overall decrease in life expectancy: 1997: 54.7 – 2007: 50 • Lack of consensus about Life Expectancy calculation– limitations of data reliability before 2000 • Since 2000 – “increasing mortality, especially of the young” • Impact of HIV/AIDS • Stabilising but at high levels of infection • Don’t know actual # HIV+ people • Women worst affected • ANC prevalence up (but why?)

  19. Education • Overall increase in Adult Literacy (1995: 69.6% - 2006: 74.4%) • Different datasets and criteria for ‘Adult literacy’ complicate assessment – South African (>20years) and ‘HDI’ (>15 years) figures differ • Gross enrolment rate (GER) (# learners per education level/ # persons corresponding to official age for level.) • Primary • Boys and girls higher than expected (GER>100); Girls > boys • Secondary • Boys and girls lower than expected (GER<100); Girls < boys • Tertiary • Overall upward trend: 2000: 1.3% - 2006: 1.6% • ~3.6%pa growth (population growth 1.2%) • Better education, but youth dying young because of HIV/ emigrating, so what is real impact?

  20. Income • Equality? Productivity? • (In)equality: • Mean: 1995: R1 101.48 – 2005: R 1514.81. = 37% • Median: 1995: R428.74 – 2005: R483.87. = 12.9% • Mean consistently higher, and increased more than median from 1995-2000 - distribution skewed to right: Few (and fewer) rich and more poor. • Income up, but is productivity? • Social grants recipients up: 1996/7: 2.4m – 2007/8: 12.3m =~25.5% of total population • Employment growth: 2001: 24.9%– 2007: 27.4% (=2.4%pa) (Unemployment down: ‘Official: 29.4% - 23%; ‘Unofficial’: 40% - 34.3%) • Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP): Temporary job opportunities up: 2004/5: 174 854 – 2007/8: 291 953 (~1mil in total) • Implications for sustainability?

  21. Challenges to measuring Policy Impact’ • Heavy reliance on existing information, not always in compatible formats • Monitoring change - Accurate & consistent data collection & analysis NB • Attributing change to policy • Defining ‘success’ – what if…? • Policy Evaluations • Output/ Performance indicators can be used to evaluate implementation • But ‘Impact’… ???

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