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Rick Miner, Ph.D.

Rick Miner, Ph.D. Two Mega Trends: Aging population resulting in lower labour force participation rates Knowledge economy requiring a more educated work force. Source: Russell Barnett, Bank of Canada Review, Summer 2007. Source: Statistics Canada, 2010.

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Rick Miner, Ph.D.

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  1. Rick Miner, Ph.D.

  2. Two Mega Trends: • Aging population resulting in lower labour force participation rates • Knowledge economy requiring a more educated work force

  3. Source: Russell Barnett, Bank of Canada Review, Summer 2007

  4. Source: Statistics Canada, 2010

  5. Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance, 2010

  6. Source: Statistics Canada, 2012

  7. Source: Statistics Canada, 2013 Comparative Canadian Participation Rates 2012 vs. 2007

  8. Source: Created using Statistics Canada data

  9. Source: Statistics Canada, 11-010-XIB using population scenario 3 (medium growth)

  10. Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance, 2005 and 2008

  11. Labour Force Deficit (thousands)

  12. What kind of new jobs/workforce does Ontario need?

  13. In 2003, a quarter of the jobs listed in the U.S. Occupational codes did not exist in 1967. “Old” jobs become new jobs every 15 years. Knowledge economies require knowledge workers.

  14. Estimates of Current & Future “New Job” Requirements: • 65% (HRSDC, 2007): 75% (HRSDC, 2011) • 67% (Canadian Council on Learning, 2009) • 75/76% (B.C. Ministry of Advanced Education & Labour Market Development, 1997 and 2009) • 78% (U.S. Skills2Compete, 2007) • Ontario targets 70% attainment level (Speech from the Throne, 2010) • BC targeting an 80% attainment rate for 2030 and a 90% transition rate by 2020 (Skills for Growth, 2010)

  15. Table 1. Labour Force Skill Assumptions

  16. 2031: 77% Source: Statistics Canada using 2006 Census data

  17. Labour force by skilled and unskilled labour (in thousands) Figure 10. Ontario Labour Force Balance: Medium Population Growth

  18. Labour force by skilled and unskilled labour (in thousands)

  19. To Avoid This Crisis We Need: A better trained/educated workforce More workers and higher labour force participation rates

  20. The labour force objective requires increased involvement of: Immigrants Aboriginal individuals Persons with Disabilities Women Younger workers Older workers

  21. Table 2. Immigrant vs. Ontario Labour Force Participation Rates: 25 - 54 Years of Age 1 Born in Canada 2 Very Recent = 5 years or less Recent = 5 to 10 years Established = 10 years or more Source: Statistics Canada, 2008

  22. Table 3. Ontario Aboriginal Labour Force Participation Rates1 1Taken from 2006 Census data, Statistics Canada, No. 97-559-XCB2006008 2 Includes the Aboriginal population which makes the difference less

  23. Table 4. Persons with Disabilities: Labour Force Participation Source: Statistics Canada, 2006

  24. Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey for June 2011

  25. Labour Force • Youth (15 to 24 years) • accelerated degree completion (summers) • more university-college joint programs: less time • reinstatement of “old” 3-year B.A. Degree • improve high school – university/college coordination & cooperation • attitudinal changes (83 % high school graduation rate –5 yrs: Mid 70s in four years)

  26. Labour Force • Older (55 years and older) • more work-retirement transition opportunities • different retirement and tax provisions • more work-life balance opportunities • creation of a new entrepreneurial class • mentoring programs & options (knowledge transfer & increased workforce)

  27. 1Dependency ratio is the percentage of population in the younger and older age groups. Source: Statistics Canada, 2010, catalogue no. 91-520-X using scenario M1 population projection (medium growth)

  28. Jobs of the Future

  29. Job Predictions: Approaches • Existing Jobs • Evolving Jobs • New Jobs There will still be “old” jobs. 30

  30. Existing HRSDC: Working in Canada (www.workingincanada.gc.ca) Projections by National Occupational Classification Codes (NOC): 2011-2020 -- 140 NOCs Projections based on: • expansion demand, • retirements, • other replacements, • emigration, • projected job openings vs. job seekers

  31. Table 5. COPS Employment Projections (2011-2020)

  32. Existing • HRSDC Good Job Prospects: 45 of 140 NOCs • 21 Health-related • 11 Business/Finance/Administrative/Managerial • 4 Social/Legal/Counselling • 7 Technological/Engineering/IT • 2 Other 33

  33. Skill/training levels requirements (Canadian Government Projections 2010-2020) Education Type% Management 10.8% College/Trades 34.3% University 21.3% High School 24.9%

  34. Existing US Bureau of Labour Statistics Projections: 2010-11 Edition(www.bls.gov)  Fastest Growing Occupations (Top 10) - Biomedical Engineers - Network Systems and Data Communications Specialists - Home Health Aides - Personal and Home Care Aides - Financial Examiners - Medical Scientists - Physician Assistants - Skin Care Specialists - Biochemists & Biophysicists - Athletic Trainers • Largest Numerical Growth: Top 10 • - Registered Nurses • - Home Health Aides • - Customer Service Representatives • Food Preparation • - Personal and Home Care Aides • - Retail Sales Persons • - Office Clerks • - Accountants and Auditors • - Nurses Aides And Orderlies • - Post-secondary Teachers

  35. Existing/Evolving Ontario’s New Occupations and Industries (www.tcu.gov.on.ca) Aerospace Biotechnology (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Pharmaceuticals) Distance Learning Environment Green Energy Technologies Health Informatics Multimedia, particularly for mobile communications What other jurisdictions have listed the same?

  36. Evolving University of Calgary Career Counseling(www.ucalgary.ca/counselling) Trends & Jobs High Technology and Material Creation (selected from 13) Software Developers Computer Animators Electrical Trades Technical Writers Natural Systems Awareness (selected from 20) Natural Healing Practitioner Fitness Consultant Environmental Engineers Genetic Researcher Water Quality Technician Information Revolution (selected from 16) Information System Librarian Specialist Researcher Manager of Communications Financial Advisor Demographics (selected from 34) Any elder health field Travel Consultant Estate Lawyer Funeral Director Human Resource Personnel Officer Global Village (selected from 7) Internet Specialists Protocol Officers Translators International Lawyers

  37. New • Body Part Maker • Nano-Medic • Memory Augmentation Surgeon • Organ Agent • Old Age Wellness Manager • End-of-life Planner • Climate Change Reversal Specialist • ‘New Science’ Ethicist • Time Broker • Weather Modification Police • Quarantine Enforcer • Automated Systems Monitor • Vertical Farmer • ‘Pharmer’ – Genetically Engineered Crops & Livestock • Narrowcasters • Social “Networking” Worker • Personal Branders • Virtual Clutter Organizer • Waste Data Handler • Virtual Lawyer • Avatar Manager • Space Pilot • Alternative Vehicle Developers Futurist Adam Gordon (2020-2030 Jobs):

  38. New • U of Calgary: Sharon Crozier (selected from 24) • (www.ucalgary.ca) • Robot Technician • Euthanasia Ethics Advisor • Gene Replacement Specialist • Online Astrologer • Virtual Vacation Broker • Cloning Expert • Multi-Generational Relationship Counsellor • Fusion Engineer • Cultural Projection Advisor

  39. Futurist Thomas Frey (http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2011/11/55-jobs-of-the-future)

  40. Jobs Of The Future: A Reality Check Poor predictive validity --not much beyond 3 years (typically less) Better at predicting “old jobs” than “new jobs” Job locations are increasingly less predictable Organizational and political competition creates complexity Knowledge workers are more mobile

  41. What Have We Learned? • Projections Differ • Location Matters • More Education Will be Required Is There Another Approach? 42

  42. Figure 15: Planning for the Jobs of the Future Trends Actions Actions Communities Educational Institutions Trends Trends Businesses & Entrepreneurs Governments Actions Actions Trends

  43. Mega Trends/Paradigm Shifts • Demographic changes (aging population) • Increased oil prices • Health paradigm shift • Global warming/climate change/ environmental industries • Advancements in information, communication & social • networking technologies and usages • Water usage, management & sale • Security enhancement • Globalization & multiculturalism 44

  44. Overlapping Trends Health Aging Oil Environment 45

  45. Education Actions • Educational institutions need to: • Provide basic and specific employability and literacy skills • Shorten and accelerate program durations • Delay specialization decisions • Increase program relevancy • Increase affordability • Increase flexibility • Work together (colleges, universities, high schools) 46

  46. Basic Employability and Literacy Skills - reading - writing - speaking - numeracy - document usage - thinking - group work - continuous learning - computer usage Plus - entrepreneurship - multiculturalism 47

  47. Shorten timelines 48

  48. Times Too Long & Too Costly • Degree Completion • (http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/2003/section3/tables/t21_1.asp) Institutions Norm (in months) Actual (in months) One 44 55.4 Two 44 58.9 Three or more 44 66.7 • Cost: Undergraduate student debt (2009) • (Canadian University Survey Consortium, Graduating Student Survey 2009) • Percentage with Debt: 58% • Average Debt: $26,680 49

  49. Relevancy • good applied content and continuous curriculum updates • advanced and relevant technologies • both technical knowledge and essential employment skills • good economic development, workforce training and PSE partnerships • literacy support 50

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