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IMPACT : A Network of Models

IMPACT : A Network of Models. Daniel Mason- D’Croz Shahnila Islam. What is IMPACT ?. A modeling-data platform built on modularity and interoperability Harmonized Data Data driven model specification More flexible to meet user needs. Why Data Harmonization?.

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IMPACT : A Network of Models

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  1. IMPACT : A Network of Models Daniel Mason-D’Croz Shahnila Islam

  2. What is IMPACT ? • A modeling-data platform built on modularity and interoperability • Harmonized Data • Data drivenmodel specification • More flexible tomeet user needs

  3. Why Data Harmonization? • IMPACT integrates various models, which often use similar input data • Better data sharing, common definitions, and clear responsibility of data processing removes redundancy and improves quality control

  4. Why Data Harmonization? • IMPACT integrates various models, which often use similar input data • Better data sharing, common definitions, and clear responsibility of data processing removes redundancy and improves quality control SPAM

  5. Why Data Harmonization? • IMPACT integrates various models, which often use similar input data • Better data sharing, common definitions, and clear responsibility of data processing removes redundancy and improves quality control SPAM IMPACT

  6. IMPACT Data-Model Environment • FAO • Climate Data • SPAM • IMPACT Models • Geospatial and Subnational Data • Exogenous IMPACT Parameters Land-Use Model • Crop Models • Hydrology

  7. Share Data • FAO • Crop Production • Livestock Production • Supply-Utilization • Food Balance Sheets • Water Stress • Climate Data • GCMS • Generated Weather • Geospatial and Subnational Data • Irrigation • Subnational Statistics • Crop suitability maps • Population Density • Exogenous IMPACT Parameters • Yield, Area Growth • Elasticities • Prices (AMAD) • Population • GDP

  8. Models • SPAM - Spatial Production Allocation Model • Land-Use Model • DSSAT Crop Models • Biofuel Model • Hydrology Model • Water Basin Management Model • Water Stress Model • Food Model • Crops • Livestock • Sugar • Oilseeds

  9. FAO Data

  10. Processing FAO Data • FAO Bulk Download for 3-year average around 2005 (04-06) • Harmonized SPAM/IMPACT commodity, and geographic definitions • Bayesian Work Plan • Iterate with new information

  11. Data Harmonization and Quality • Too many cooks • Climate change is modeled in Water and Crop models for IMPACT • Need to use same initial and processed climate data • Ensure crop shocks and water shocks are compatible

  12. Climate Change Consistency

  13. Data Harmonization and Quality • Building common geographical definitions • Standardize mapping of data • Share data (initial and processed)

  14. Geospatial Data Users

  15. Data Independence • Cleaner Model Code • Facilitate model transfer and training • Data Processing and Model design are independent tasks • Model can run different data sources and aggregations without modification

  16. IMPACT – A Suite of Models • Current Models • Food Model • Crop Production Model • Livestock Production Model • Processed Goods Production Models (e.g. sugar) • Water Models • Crop Models • Malnutrition Model • Welfare and Cost-Benefit Model

  17. IMPACT – A Suite of Models • Models under Development • Fish Model • New Livestock Model • Biofuels Model

  18. IMPACT – A Suite of Models • Modularity = “a la carte” • Use the models you need, turn off those you don’t • Standardize data transfer • Information Flows • Dynamic or Iterative interaction

  19. IMPACT – A Suite of Models • Three ways to link modules: • Exogenous: Information flows in one direction • Linked dynamically: Two-way information flow between years • Endogenous: Module equations are solved simultaneously

  20. One-way Model Integration

  21. One-way Model Integration

  22. DSSAT to IMPACT conversion IMPACT Overview

  23. DSSAT to IMPACT conversion IMPACT Overview

  24. DSSAT to IMPACT conversion IMPACT Overview

  25. One-way Model Integration

  26. Endogenous Model Integration

  27. Linked Dynamic Model Integration

  28. Why water is endogenousin IMPACT • Irrigation critical for securing food supply • Accounts for less than 20% of global cropland • But ~40% of global cereals production • Key to boosting agricultural productivity • Agriculture is the largest water user globally • 70% global water withdraw • 90% global water consumption • Agriculture is a major driver of water scarcity

  29. How does the Water Model Work? • Global hydrological module (GHM) assesses water availability • Water Simulation Module (WSM) optimizes water supply according to demands • Domestic • Industrial • Livestock • Irrigation • Environment • Provides hydro-climatic (water) stress to IMPACT food module

  30. Water Stress: Inputs and Outputs IWSM • Avail irrigation water • Water stress per (crop, FPU) • Effective rainfall • Producer Prices • Irrigation yield shocks • Rainfed yield shocks

  31. Year Loop Repeat each year • Step 1: Determine Areas • Step 2: Re-Adjust Prices Food Model Crop Water Allocation Irrigated Areas Water Delivered per Area Water Stress IWSM

  32. Conclusion • We draw inputs from experts in agriculture, demographics, population, climate, and hydrology • We don’t recreate the wheel, instead we provide a flexible framework that connects results from many models for more nuanced and realistic scenarios Water, Crop Models, Climate Change Population and Economic growth The IMPACT Model Farmer/Consumer Behavior IMPACT Overview

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