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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 12, 2015. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml. Outline.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 12, 2015 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal over many parts of India, across the southern and east Asia monsoon region, particularly over Indonesia, consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. However, northeast India, Bangladesh, Burma, and large parts of southeastern China have received above normal rainfall amounts.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall was considerably below normal over northern/central India, Thailand, Cambodia, southern Vietnam and across Indonesian Archipelago. Traditionally, the first couple of weeks of October marks the end of the summer Southwest monsoon and the onset of the winter Northeast monsoon over India. This NE monsoon which ends in December, usually brings rainfall to the following states of India: Tamilnadu, Kerala, coastal AP, Rayalaseema, and Interior Karnataka. It is also the main season for Tamilnadu.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, except along south India, Burma, and along southern and coastal eastern China, rainfall amounts were generally at below normal levels across the monsoon region, especially across all of Indonesia.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal over many parts of India, across the southern and east Asia monsoon region, particularly over Indonesia, consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. However, northeast India, Bangladesh, Burma, and large parts of southeastern China have received above normal rainfall amounts. For the past 30 days, rainfall was considerably below normal over northern/central India, Thailand, Cambodia, southern Vietnam and across Indonesian Archipelago. Traditionally, the first couple of weeks of October marks the end of the summer Southwest monsoon and the onset of the winter Northeast monsoon over India. Unlike the much attention paid to the onset of the SW monsoon, the onset of NE monsoon does not get media attention, except in Tamilnadu. This NE monsoon which ends in December, usually brings rainfall to the following states of India: Tamilnadu, Kerala, coastal AP, Rayalaseema, and Interior Karnataka. It is also the main season for Tamilnadu. In this past week, except along south India, Burma, and along southern and coastal eastern China, rainfall amounts were generally at below normal levels across the monsoon region, especially across all of Indonesia. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting below normal rainfall over the entire monsoon region, except over extreme southern India.
