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Heavy Rain event in the Northeast: 14-15 August 2011

Heavy Rain event in the Northeast: 14-15 August 2011. Record setting rain event in NYC and into the Northeast Event began about 06z/14 August at JFK eastward across Long Island Moved into the rest of the Northeast after about 12z/14 August Continued through most of 15 August

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Heavy Rain event in the Northeast: 14-15 August 2011

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  1. Heavy Rain event in the Northeast: 14-15August 2011 Record setting rain event in NYC and into the Northeast Event began about 06z/14 August at JFK eastward across Long Island Moved into the rest of the Northeast after about 12z/14 August Continued through most of 15 August Real-time runs examined 6-h forecasts from the runs initialized at 06z/15 August were examined For this time 4 bands are seen in the 6-h observed precipitation EWP runs and HRRR available STMAS runs missing (only had hour 0) There are other interesting periods but they had aged off on the web (could be examined later) Some thoughts Ensemble spread There is some in the amounts, but little in the location of the bands EWP forecasts appear to mainly catch the eastern 2 bands And to a lesser extent the next band to the west (yellow oval in the slide with the forecasts) Do not seem to resolve the more interior band in eastern NY (white oval) Max precip amounts forecast compare favorably to the maximum observed (up to ~1.5-2”) Although the bias scores suggest an overforecastfor many of the EWP members for >40 dBZ echoes HRRR Tends to emphasize the 2 western bands more Max amounts ~0.5” less than the EWP forecasts, so a bit on the low side

  2. RFC estimated 6-h precipitation ending 12 UTC/15 Aug 6-h period of heavy rains in the Northeast Reflectivity/MSLP/obsat 0600 UTC Reflectivity/MSLP/obsat 0900 UTC Reflectivity/MSLP/obsat 1200 UTC There were far heavier rains during the preceding 18-h period, but event was still ongoing for this 6-h period as well.

  3. Storm total precipitation maps NYC area Southern/Central New England

  4. EWP2 EWP3 06 UTC forecasts of 6-h total precip EWP4 EWP5 EWP6 EWP7 EWP8 HRRR EWP1 Verification The observations show 4 bands of significant accumulated rain where some echo training occurred. It looks like the EWP forecasts mainly resolve the two eastern bands (blue and light green ovals.

  5. BIAS ETS 20 dBZ threshold 20 dBZ threshold Scores for reflectivity for this forecast cycle 30 dBZ threshold 30 dBZ threshold 40 dBZ threshold 40 dBZ threshold

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