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James G. Robb Director lmic

International Markets: Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Beef Denver, Colorado April 2, 2013. James G. Robb Director www.lmic.info. 29 land Grant Universities:. USDA Members: ERS APHIS GIPSA NASS WAOB AMS. Associate Members: AFBF ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group

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James G. Robb Director lmic

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  1. International Markets: Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Beef Denver, Colorado April 2, 2013 James G. Robb Director www.lmic.info

  2. 29 land Grant Universities: USDA Members: ERS APHIS GIPSA NASS WAOB AMS Associate Members: AFBF ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group Canadian Consortium Noble Foundation CoBank TCFA CWB TCU

  3. Trade Background, Outlook, Issues… • The Big Picture – Population, Income, and Trade • Value of Trade to the U.S. Beef Industry • Comments on Exchange Rates • More on Beef Exports • Some Challenges and Issues

  4. The Big Picture

  5. Population and Income Drive Trade • Rate of population growth slowing, still by 2050 the projection by U.S. Bureau of Census is for 33% more people worldwide. • Top 5 Most Populated Countries in 2050 • India – 1,656 Million • China – 1,424 Million • U.S.A. – 439 Million • Indonesia – 313 Million • Ethiopia – 278 Million • To meet basic needs plus growing incomes animal protein consumption will need to double by 2050 (Economist Nov 21, 2009)

  6. Data Source: IMF

  7. Data Source: USDA-FAS

  8. Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS; Forecasts by LMIC

  9. Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS; Forecasts by LMIC

  10. Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS; Forecasts by LMIC

  11. Value of Trade

  12. Data Source: USDA-FAS

  13. Data Source: USDA-FAS

  14. Data Source: USDA-FAS

  15. Data Source: Pacific Exchange Rate Service, Univ. of B.C.

  16. Beef Exports

  17. Data Source: USDA-FAS

  18. Data Source: USDA-FAS

  19. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS

  20. Data Source: USDA-FAS & ERS

  21. Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS; Forecasts by LMIC

  22. Some Challenges & Issues

  23. Comments– Issues, Issues, Issues… • 9-11-2001, BSE in late 2003, 2008 Credit Crisis/Recession All Had Major Trade Impacts and Lowered Cattle Prices • COOL – Trade Issue • Traceability – Niche and High Value vs Commodity Beef • Phytosanitary (BSE, H1N1) – Trade Barriers Of Choice • Beta-agonists (currently Russia and China) • Many Foreign Consumers are Evolving Quickly • Building Foreign Demand Takes Effort (often country specific knowledge) • Exports Require Infrastructure and Credit (guarantees, letters of credit, and other things often taken for granted) • Trade Agreements are Important

  24. Comments– Country Specific • Countries/Regions to Monitor Near-Term • Japan – Removal of Barrier but also Economic Headwinds • Mexico – Drought Devastated Cowherd • Oceana – Drought, especially New Zealand • Countries to Keep Tabs On Longer-Term • Cuba • China

  25. www.lmic.info Thank You!

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