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Climate change impact on winter wheat yield and nitrogen leaching Preliminary analysis

Climate change impact on winter wheat yield and nitrogen leaching Preliminary analysis. Tove Heidmann & Jørgen E. Olesen Department of Agroecology. Methods. Daisy model Simulations for selected regions in Europe Baseline climate data from MARS/STAT database at JRC (1976-2004)

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Climate change impact on winter wheat yield and nitrogen leaching Preliminary analysis

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  1. Climate change impact on winter wheat yield and nitrogen leachingPreliminary analysis Tove Heidmann & Jørgen E. Olesen Department of Agroecology U N I V E R S I T Y O F A A R H U S Faculty of Agricultural Sciences

  2. Methods • Daisy model • Simulations for selected regions in Europe • Baseline climate data from MARS/STAT database at JRC (1976-2004) • Future climate data from ENSEMBLES • Two crops: winter wheat and spring barley

  3. MARS/STAT grid

  4. Thresholds • 20 % decrease in yield • 10 % decrease in yield • Nitrogen leaching > 25 kg N/ha

  5. Example - preliminary work • Future climate data from perturbed physics experiment (2050-70) • Two locations: Denmark and South Germany • Crop: winter wheat • Fertilisation: optimum N rate • Soil type: same soil type at both sites (14 % clay in top soil)

  6. Cumulative probability plot of temperature change and precipitation change

  7. Changes in climate • South Germany: • Precipitation: -15, -10, -5, 0, +5, +10, +15 % • Temperature: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6 oC • Denmark • Precipitation: -10, -5, 0, +5, +10, +15, +20, +25 % • Temperature: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6 oC

  8. Changes in climate • Two different situations • Precipitation evenly distributed on all months • Seasonal variation in precipitation included

  9. Seasonal variation in climate(from Ruosteenoja et al., 2003)

  10. Including seasonal variation in precipitation distribution South Germany • Decrease: • Decrease in precipitation during May – Nov. (larger decrease during Jul. – Aug.) • Unchanged precipitation during Dec. – Feb. • Increase • Unchanged precipitation during Jun. – Aug. • Increase in precipitation during the rest of the period (larger increase during Dec. – Feb.)

  11. South Germany, 20% yield decrease

  12. South Germany, 10 % yield decrease

  13. South Germany, Leaching > 25 kg N/ha

  14. Seasonal variation in climate(from Ruosteenoja et al., 2003)

  15. Including seasonal variation in precipitation distributionDenmark • Increase: • Increase in precipitation during Sep. – May • Decrease in precipitation during Jun. – Aug. • Decrease: • All the decrease in Jun. – Aug. • The rest of the months unchanged

  16. Denmark, 20 % yield decrease

  17. Denmark, 10 % yield decrease

  18. Denmark, leaching > 25 kg N/ha

  19. Response surfaces in combination with probabilistic information on future climate

  20. Remarks • Baseline climate from 1976-2004, should be 1960-90 • CO2 concentration not included in simulations

  21. Preliminary conclusion • Calculations of nitrogen leaching is more sensitive to seasonal variation in climate data than the calculations of crop yields.

  22. Future work • Seasonal relationships between meteorological variables in future climate data will be investigated • Include CO2-concentrations, fixed for each time period • Include the seasonal variation in climate in the calculations • Simulations with two crops: winter wheat and spring barley • Simulations for more locations and local soil types

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