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James H. Johnson, Jr.

DISRUPTIVE DEMOGRAPHICS The Changing Face of the Patient of the Future . James H. Johnson, Jr. William Rand Kenan , Jr. Distinguished Professor of Entrepreneurship & Strategy

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James H. Johnson, Jr.

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  1. DISRUPTIVE DEMOGRAPHICS • The Changing Face of the • Patient of the Future James H. Johnson, Jr. William Rand Kenan, Jr. Distinguished Professor of Entrepreneurship & Strategy Kenan-Flagler Business School Director, Urban Investment Strategies CenterFrank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private EnterpriseUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  2. Overview • Disruptive Demographics • Opportunities & Challenges • Implications for Healthcare Planning & Delivery

  3. Disruptive Demographics • The “Browning” of America • The “Greying” of America • The Nexus of Diversity Issues

  4. Personal and Lifestyle Characteristics by Generation

  5. WORKPLACE CHARACTERISTICS

  6. WORKPLACE CHARACTERISTICS (CONT’D)

  7. People On The Move

  8. The Numbers Legal Immigrants: • 1920-1961: 206,000 annually • 1961-1992: 561,000 annually • 1993-1998: 800,654 annually • 1999-2004: 879,400 annually • 2005-2008: 1,137,000 annually Refugees, Parolees, Asylees • 1961-1993: 2.1 million (65,000 annually) • 1994-1998: 428,361 (85,672 annually) • 1999-2004: 487,386 (81,231 annually) • 2005-2008: 203,642 (75,661 annually) Illegal Immigrants: • 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades • Three million granted amnesty in 1986 • 2.7 million illegal immigrants remained in U.S. after 1986 reforms • October 1996: INS estimated that there were 5 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. • August 2005: Illegal population range from 7 to 15 million.

  9. Non-Immigrants Admitted to • the United States • 1981 - 2008

  10. World Region of Birth for U.S. Population, 1970-2008

  11. Population Estimates by Race/Ethnicity 1988 - 2050

  12. Total Fertility Rates of U.S. Women by Race/Ethnicity 1988 - 2050

  13. America’s Color Adjustment

  14. Relative Distribution of U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2005 & 2050

  15. Women who had a birth in the last 12 months, Ages 15 – 50, by Select Characteristics 2006

  16. Women who had a birth in the last 12 months, Ages 15 – 50, by Select Characteristics 2006 (Cont’d)

  17. Women who had a birth in the last 12 months, Ages 15 – 50, by Select Characteristics 2006 (Cont’d)

  18. Women who had a birth in the last 12 months, Ages 15 – 50, by Select Characteristics 2006 (Cont’d)

  19. Percent Distribution of U.S. Births by Race/Ethnicity 1990 & 2008

  20. Median Age of U.S. Population by Race, Hispanic Origin & Gender, 2009

  21. Completed Fertility for Women 40 - 44 Years Old

  22. U.S. Total and Foreign Born Population Change, 1990-2000

  23. Change in Regional Distribution of Foreign Born Population, 1970 - 2008

  24. Percent Change in Total and Foreign Born Population, by Region, 1990-2000

  25. Net Population Change Attributable to Non-White Population Growth, 1990 - 2000

  26. Net Population Change Attributable to Non-White Population Growth, 2000 - 2004

  27. In-Migration, Out-Migration, Net Migration, and Movers from Abroad for Regions, 1990-2000

  28. Net Migration Trends, 2000-2008 TOTAL Black Hispanic Elderly Foreign Born = Net Import = Net Export

  29. U.S. Population Change by Region, 2000 - 2009

  30. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2000

  31. Net Population Change in the United States by Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin, 1990 - 2000

  32. U.S. Population Change by Race & Ethnicity, 2000 - 2009

  33. U.S. Population Turning 50, 55, 62, and 65 Years of Age, 2007 - 2015

  34. Absolute and Relative Change in the Gender/Age Composition of the U.S. Population, 1990 - 2000

  35. U.S. Population Change By Age, 2000 - 2009

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