FlightPlan Research Phase 2 Summary Results

1. FlightPlan ResearchPhase 2 Summary Results Jim McGee Global Mapping International IAMA Conference May 2006

2. Background • Global Mapping International • Part of and committed to the mission community • Unaffiliated with the mission aviation community • Focus and commitment to research GMI’s Mission: Produce and present world-class research that fuels emerging mission movements and leaders.

3. Key Elements of the Project • Collaboration and involvement sought from all stakeholders • A visible, open process • Compilation of valuable information for distribution throughout the mission aviation community • Funding provided from several sources • Third-party analysis and reporting

4. Phases • Phase 1: Document the status, dynamics and trends • Phase 2: Explore perceptions, needs, challenges, opportunities • Phase 3: Envision and analyze possible & preferable futures

5. Phase 1: Status & Trends

6. Phase 1 CD Contents • Research Report: Status of Mission Aviation • History • Global Trends • Missiology • Finance • Training • Technology • Strategy/Practice

7. Phase 1 CD Contents • Directory of mission aviation service providers • Web directory of mission aviation web sites • Library of 300 mission aviation documents • Key documents • Dave Bochman • Ed Robinson • Scott Zibell • Key measures

8. Sample of Phase 1 Info • National and global trends • Number of student pilots has dropped 41% in past 20 years

9. Sample of Phase 1 Info

10. Sample of Phase 1 Info • Technical m.a. staff is up by 44% since 1988 • Flight hours are roughly unchanged • (Chart does not show all known orgs)

11. More Phase 1 Learning (plus) • Roadless population growing: 1 billion by 2030 • Among poorest peoples, mobility not expected to increase substantially • Building roads often doesn’t give poorest access to services they need • Economic-valuation models say the value of time saved is multiplied by a factor of (significant given rapid population increase)

12. More Phase 1 Learning (plus) • Fuel savings from diesel/autofuel aircraft expected to recoup cost in 4 years of service • Staff attrition at MAF (6.5% annually) is similar to that of all U.S.-based missions (6.0%) • Projected supply of pilot trainees runs fairly close to expressed agency need (but do they reach the field?) • Projected supply of maintenance specialists runs somewhat short

13. Phase 2: Perceptions, Needs, Opportunities, Challenges

14. Methodology • Objectives: Gather internal (stakeholder) and external perspectives • Internal: Interview leaders/representatives within stakeholder groups to explore key issues, questions • Depth interviews • Online focus groups • External: Survey current and potential users of mission aviation to explore needs, perceptions

15. What Stakeholders See

16. Depth Interviews • 40 depth interviews (phone, email) • 15 service providers (10 agencies; senior leaders, field leaders, pilots, recruiters) • 8 trainers/equippers (5 schools, 3 bridge programs) • 6 support specialists (4 agencies) • 5 donors • 4 service users (representing Guatemala, Ecuador, Cameroon, South Africa, China and PNG) • 2 current/former students

17. Online Discussions • Discussion Boards • 75 mission-aviation stakeholders • Topical: focusing on questions outlined in Phase 1 • Situational: getting reactions to ideas that could have application for mission aviation, e.g…. • …corporate-NGO partnership for global logistics • …federal giving initiative to give $200 million to faith-based organizations working in AIDS-ravaged countries • ...Islamic competition in community air service • …small-scale tribal tourism operations • …2-year field internship for prospective missionaries

18. Values • In relative frequency of mention • Cooperate with other agencies • Be a missionary first, a pilot second • Empower indigenous peoples by increasing their access to health/education services • Partner closely with national believers/churches • Leave when appropriate; establish exit parameters • Select appropriate technology for situation • Emphasize safety and safety standards • Seek sustainability, financially and otherwise

19. Values • Focus on learning/research/using information • Define and measure effectiveness • Speed the path to the field; show agility on the field • Consider God-honoring business applications • Smaller aircraft have a place • Internships must meet objectives (not just exposure) • Users pay portion of costs • Variety in the enterprise is good

20. Concerns • In relative frequency of mention • Cost of aviation for nationals (and expats) • Government resistance/regulation • Rising operational costs (and currency devaluation) • Students failing to get to field due to cost, debt and distractions • Supply of students • Insurance costs

21. Concerns • Service providers staying too long • Changing technology (training, certification) • Declining funding sources/trends • Avgas supply • Agencies less likely to place missionaries in isolated locations

22. Opportunities • In relative frequency of mention • Internship opportunities for trainees • Low-tech/simple tech (Steve Saint) • Mission-Business ventures and models • Partnership/consultation with governments on infrastructure • Cargo capacity – more stuff, fewer trips (Kodiak) • Second-career people/volunteers • Secular schools supplying students

23. Opportunities • Humanitarian opportunities in closed places • Airstrip construction in areas where governments are committed to providing services • Pilots returning from the field (training, promoting) • Tentmaking opportunities for trainees • Need of nationals to learn English • Use of commercial pilots for short-term needs • Navigation technology • Community air service

24. Opportunities • Group insurance • Microaviation – small-scale do-it-alls • FBOs lying dormant • Running national training institutions

25. Needs • Relative frequency of mention • Intentionally reduce dependence on expats • Speed the transition to new aircraft • Recruit more people • Help trainees get field ready (skill & finances) • Measure opportunity/effectiveness • Evaluate viability of new tech applications • Market the benefits to users, churches

26. Needs • Intentionally seek national administrators (not just technicians) • Adopt standards across organizations as appropriate (unity without uniformity) • Understand total cost/investment • Train pilots and trainees on diesel/turbine • Communicate better across agencies • Recruit people with business acumen

27. What Others See

28. Internet Survey of Potential Users • Internet survey of field leaders whose agencies work among remote peoples • Offline version made available • Languages: English, Spanish, Portuguese • Recruiting sources emphasized global South • WEA Mission Commission Associates (global) • Ethne 2006 email list (primarily Asia) • Comibam email list (Latin America) • MANI network regional leaders

29. Internet Survey of Potential Users • Survey billed as “Remote Peoples and Mission Transportation Survey” to avoid potential response bias • 40+ data points, including attitude/behavior ratings, 2 open-ended questions, demographics • Respondents asked to identify themselves by name and mission organization • 119 valid responses from approximately 800 invitations (approx. 15% response)

30. Involvement with Remote Peoples • Respondents asked about relationship with remote peoples • Those not directly engaged with remote peoples were filtered out, as were aviation service providers • Reporting based on 82 responses

31. Demographics • 83% of responses from people living in the majority world • Half of respondents live in Latin America • For most measures, no bias based on region of residence

32. Demographics • Most respondents represent missions active in multiple regions

33. Demographics • Mix of national-oriented and expat-oriented missions • Relatively few missions have a balance of missionaries from both types of countries

34. Demographics • More than half of respondents from smaller missions; • Nearly 4 in 10 from missions with more than 100 field staff

35. Attitudes: Challenges in Ministry • Top challenges: • Access • Health/Security Concerns

36. Attitudes: Use of Big Grant • Aviation is complex, so no surprise to see it low on priority list • Other responses related to aviation: • Telecommunications • Transport Services

37. Attitudes: Transport Problems • Expense is top problem; a challenge for aviation • Cargo transport is an opportunity for aviation • Also, to a lesser degree, speed, safety & reliability

38. Behaviors: Travel Modes • Air travel used moderately, as is boat and foot travel • Boat use much higher in Latin America than Africa or Asia

39. Behaviors: Aviation Usage • Second half of survey specific to aviation • Mission aviation not seen as available in many areas • Unavailable? • Unaware? • 1 in 4 missions note use of aviation at some level

40. Attitudes: Barriers to Aviation Use • Confirms cost issue and perception of unavailability • Few have problem with use of planes generally

41. Anticipated Behavior: If Given Aircraft • 2 of 3 missions would keep a plane if given one • Only 1 in 8 would sell it outright rather than work to keep it in mission service

42. Attitudes: Mission Aviation • In general, strong support for use of aviation in mission

43. Analysis/Ideas

44. Analysis / Ideas • Marketing/Communications • Movement from reactive to proactive, especially among agencies that have few North Americans • Awareness: Potential users should be aware of the opportunities to use mission aviation service • Benefits of mission aviation should be more intentionally communicated to potential users (transportation consulting) • Grants for marketing could be tied to follow-up funding based on increases in requests for service

45. Analysis / Ideas • Failure to Get to the Field • With partner approach (schools/bridge/agency), no one accompanies student through the whole process • Students aren’t sure what they want to do; they need an advocate/counselor • Potential role for IAMA or others: membership-based career service for Christian aviation students • Could include internship clearinghouse • Should include commercial options, especially given expanding nature of “mission”

46. Analysis / Ideas • Failure to Remain on the Field • Missionaries less likely to stay for a full career;especially an issue for aviation due to initial cost • Lots of roles at home for former field staff, but… • …they can’t be publicized, because the staff are so needed on the field • Require a portion of support placed in a deferred fund, with substantial bonuses for extended service • Allow home assignments to be made public and given honor

47. Analysis / Ideas • The Struggle to Integrate Nationals • Agencies committed to development of national leaders, but training is a challenge & funding difficult • Meanwhile, agencies note that most people give to individual aviators, not agencies • Consider expat-national counterpart program • Expat raises support for self and for counterpart • Churches more likely to provide support w/link to national

48. Analysis / Ideas • What to Do With Second-Career Pilots? • Do something! • Research shows that pilots over 60 are no more of a risk than those under 35 (though they may not be able to fly into 15o-slope jungle strips) • Increasing opportunities for short-term or contract relief work, international flight training, mentoring • As likely to get a decade or more of service from them as from many younger pilots

49. Phase 3: Future Scenarios

50. Process • Identify and prioritize evaluation criteria • Identify and describe models/scenarios • Evaluate scenarios • Underlying assumptions • Anticipated/required conditions • Preferability based on criteria