World Climate Research Programme Progress and Plans

1. World Climate Research ProgrammeProgress and Plans Ghassem R. Asrar & Antonio J. Busalacchi

2. Background WCRP Independent Review by its Sponsors- 2008-2009 WMO Planning for the Global Framework for Climate Services- 2009-Present ICSU Visioning for Environmental research and Global Sustainability, Future Earth- 2010-Present IOC/UNESCO OcenObservation Symposium leading to development of Integrated Framework for Sustained Ocean Observations (IFSOO) – 2009-Present The WCRP Joint Scientific Committee initiated strategic planning and consultation- 2008-Present Shaping plans and priorities for next decade.

3. Research Contributions: Way Forward Maintain scientific objectivity and excellence as a foundation for science-based climate information. Establish an effective dialogue with users of climate information to understand their needs and to obtain their feedback on use of available knowledge, and required new information. Facilitate the holistic approach to Earth climate system research to include socioeconomic aspects of the problems, and decision processes. Provide greater support to research capacity development with special focus on regional aspects of climate variability and change. Promote solution-based approach to addressing challenges and opportunities in developing, evaluating and disseminating climate information for risk management, adaptation planning and global sustainability and development.

4. Stakeholders and User Perspective Urgent need for actionable climate informationbased on sound science The need for “symbiotic” relationship between providers and users of climate informationto ensure climate information is timely, accessible, easy to understand Urgent need for training and development of next generation of scientists and decision makerswho pursue and promote the use of actionable climate/environmental information

5. WCRP Grand Science Challenges • Provision of skillful future climate information on regional scales • Sea-Level Change and its regional implications • Cryosphere response to climate change • The role of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiation in climate sensitivity • Water availability and distribution in a changing climate • Science foundation for prediction and attribution of extreme events

6. Mission & Objectives World Climate Research Programmecoordinates international climate research to improve; • climate predictions and • our understanding of human influence on climate “for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society”(WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).

7. Emerging Structure Post-2013 • The WCRP will focus on four fundamental interactions of the Earth/climate system: • Ocean-atmosphere • Land-atmosphere • Stratosphere-troposphere • Cryosphere and Climate WCRP Overarching/Unifying themes: - Observation and Analysis - Process understanding - Model development, projections and prediction - Climate Information and Application

8. The Seamless Prediction of Earth System Ice sheets atmospheric chemistry land moisture vegetation ocean skin upper full atmosphere region global 1day 1week 1month 1season 1year 1 decade 1 century Fronts Convec systems Cyclones MJO QBO PDO Blocks AMO ENSO NAO

10. Opportunities and Challenges; Support development of climate information for decision makers; Develop seamlessregional and intera-seasonal to inter-annual, and decadal climate prediction/projection; Promote and enable timely, reliable, and easy to access climate information and knowledge; and Support education, training and development of next generation of climate experts and networks. International cooperation and Coordinationis key to success. Summary

11. WCRP, WWRP and GAWJoint Research Initiatives Ghassem Asrar and Deon Terblanche Research Department

12. Background/Rationale Executive Council Task Team on Research Aspects of an Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water and Environmental Prediction Framework, 2009 Coordinate and Accelerate Prediction Research: develop a unified approach to multidisciplinary weather, climate, water and environmental prediction research, step up high-performance computing investments to accommodate the increasing complexity and detail of models, accelerate the development, validation and use of prediction models Link Research, Operation and Service Delivery: Develop closer linkages between research, operations and users through Forecast Demonstration Projects (FDPs) that accelerate technology transfer The Role of WMO Commissions: Implement a process to review and rationalise the roles and mandates of the Commissions, and to improve their effectiveness in enhancing WMO Member capabilities in research, observations, prediction and services WMO

13. Seamless Prediction WMO

14. Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Project • Objectives: • To improve forecast skill and understanding on the S2S timescale with emphasis on HIW • To promote uptake by operational centres and exploitation by the applications community • To capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address GFCS priorities • Implementation underway: TIGGE-like multi-model data base being established • Demonstration projects on extreme events(e.g. 2010 Russian heatwave, floods in Pakistan in 2010 and Australia in 2011, and 2012 European cold spell) • Project Office: NIMR, KMA, Jeju, Korea (official ceremony at EC-65) • Trust fund: we expect and welcome support and contributions by Members. WMO Courtesy UKMO Courtesy IRI

15. Polar Prediction Project (PPP) • Objective: • “Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal” (contribution to WMO GIPPS) • Research components: • observations, modeling, data assimilation, ensemble forecasting • predictability, diagnostics, teleconnections • societal and economic research applications, verification • Implementation: Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) – period 2017-2018 • Synergies with the WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI) • Project Office: under discussion • Trust fund: contributions welcome WMO Courtesy T. Jung, AWI Side Event on Monday!

16. WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI) Research on Ice Sheets and Sea Level WMO GIPPS (Global Integrated Polar Prediction System) Research Tasks Understand past polar climate variations, (palaeo, up to 100 years) Understand polar climate predictability on seasonal to decadal timescales Assess perfor-mance of CMIP5 models in polar regions Understand how jets and non-zonal circulation couple to the rest of the climate system in the Southern Hemisphere Days -> Months -> Years -> Decades -> Centuries Assess re-analyses products in polar regions Model error WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP)

17. Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Advisory System(SDS-WAS) • Objectives : • To enhance the ability of countries to deliver timely and quality forecasts of sand and dust storms, observations of aerosols; sand and dust information and knowledge to users through an international partnership of research and operational experts and users • MERIT Meningitis Project and TIGGE/Meningitis web-page http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_meningitis.html • New SDS-WAS Node is in USA • UNEP-WMO Collaboration on SDS-WAS in West Asia • The SDS-WAS Research Implementation Plan : in final stage • Financial Support : Currently from the regular WMO budget, but in future from the voluntary contributions (via trust fund). 17

18. Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) Jointly established by the WCRP and the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) Responsibility of fostering the development of atmospheric circulation models for use in weather prediction and climate studies on all time scales and diagnosing and resolving shortcomings Terms of Reference Advice, liaison, coordinated experiments, workshops, publications, meetings Some current projects Transpose-AMIP - testing climate models in NWP mode AMIP– testing NWP in climate mode Grey-zone - representation of cold air outbreak (LES, mesoscale models, global models) NWP performance – e.g. tropical cyclones, precipitation Polar– ConcordIASIintercomparison Climate metrics - joint WGNE/WGCM panel Issues with verification - against own (re-)analysis MJO – e.g. Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation intercomparisons YOTC– multi-scale convection on tropical cyclones Importance of aerosols for weather and climate - coordinated experimentation planned Comparison of model momentum budgets - surface drag in weather and climate models

19. Thank you!