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Analysis of Alternate Approach Data: Differential IR Oxidation Numbers and Pb Results

This analysis explores the relationship between differential IR oxidation numbers and Pb results, while considering the impact of new control rod bearings. The study focuses on understanding low Pb results and their implications for Mack Merits.

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Analysis of Alternate Approach Data: Differential IR Oxidation Numbers and Pb Results

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Analysis of Alternate Approach Data(round six iteration two) Presented to Mack Surveillance Panel teleconference 2 April 2004 jar

  2. What is this about again? Looks like the differential IR oxidation numbers at 250 and 300 hours are the variables that relate best to Pb (0 to 300 and 250 to 300) while still having numbers that are not driven out of range by the switch to newer control rod bearings. We can’t find models that don’t penalize very low Pb results without overfitting our data. This is because while oxidation numbers relate well to Pb numbers on the average, there are results with low IR numbers that do not have extremely low Pb numbers although there are low Pb numbers for some tests with low IR numbers. There is variability in IR and Pb and models tend to predict average results. So what does the penalty for these exceptionally low Pb test results mean for Mack Merits?

  3. Refresher The round six predictive models were derived from the industry contributed data after eliminating tests that had greater than 59 Pb0300 or greater than 20 Pb250300. After various attempts including weighted regression, piecewise fitting, etc., this appeared to be the best attempt to focus on what some people saw as troubling aspects of our modeling without overfitting.

  4. Model 1

  5. Model 2

  6. Model 1 – Effect on Pb0300 Merits 1

  7. Model 1 – Effect on Pb0300 Merits 2

  8. Model 1 – Effect on Pb0300 Merits 3

  9. Model 1 – Effect on Pb0300 Merits 4

  10. Model 2 – Effect on Pb250300 Merits 1

  11. Model 2 – Effect on Pb250300 Merits 2

  12. Model 2 – Effect on Pb250300 Merits 3

  13. Combine on Total Pb Merits 1

  14. Combine on Total Pb Merits 2

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