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Wave Forecasting at the WFO San Juan

Wave Forecasting at the WFO San Juan. CarICOOS Workshop on Simulation and Model Testbed March 29, 2012 University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez. Ernesto Rodriguez Meteorologist Local Modeling Team Leader NWS San Juan. Carlos Anselmi Meteorologist Intern SWAN Team Member NWS San Juan.

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Wave Forecasting at the WFO San Juan

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  1. Wave Forecasting at theWFOSan Juan CarICOOS Workshop on Simulation and Model Testbed March 29, 2012 University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez Ernesto Rodriguez Meteorologist Local Modeling Team Leader NWS San Juan CarlosAnselmi Meteorologist Intern SWAN Team Member NWS San Juan

  2. Outline • National Weather Service Mission • Marine Forecast Methodology • Marine Products • Routine • Non-routine • Local Model Verification (SWAN) • Analysis of the Error Sources • Case Study (Nov. 5-11, 2011) • Conclusion

  3. Mission • "The National Weather Service TM (NWS) provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy."

  4. Marine Zones

  5. Marine Forecast Process Regional Models Local Models Wind Obs Buoy Obs ANALYSIS & FORECAST Wind Forecast Wave Forecast

  6. Marine Products Routine Non-Routine Special Marine Warning Marine Weather Statement Coastal Flood Watch, Advisory & Warning High Surf Advisory High Surf Warning Marine Weather Message Hazardous Weather Outlook • Coastal Waters Forecast • Synopsis • Waves • Wind • Weather • Surf Zone Forecast (Near Future) • Breaking Wave Height • Rip Current Potential • Wind at the coast • Tides

  7. Local Model Verification

  8. Local Buoys

  9. Error Statistics • Mean Error (ME) is the mean of the arithmetic differences between the observations and forecasts. • Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is the mean of the absolute differences between the observations and forecasts. • Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) is the square root of the mean of the squared differences between the observations and forecasts.

  10. BUOY 41053 – San Juan, PR Wave Height Time Series Wave Rose Plot ME = 0.41 MAE = 0.62 RMSE = 0.96

  11. BUOY 42085 – Ponce , PR Wave Height Time Series Wave Rose Plot ME = -0.001 MAE = 0.42 RMSE = 0.57

  12. BUOY 41115 – Rincon, PR Wave Height Time Series Wave Rose Plot ME = 0.20 MAE = 0.50 RMSE = 0.66

  13. BUOY 41052 – St. John, USVI Wave Height Time Series Wave Rose Plot ME = 0.34 MAE = 0.52 RMSE = 0.69

  14. MODEL ACCURACY (Year 2011) MEAN ERROR (ME) MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR (RMSE) 0.4084 0.6206 0.9616 0.1959 0.5017 0.6642 0.3427 0.5226 0.6927 -0.0013 0.4237 0.5671

  15. Error Sources Wind Forecast Wave Height Model Error

  16. Buoys 41043 41053 41115 41052 42085

  17. BUOY 41043 – SW North Atlantic Analyzed only incoming waves from WNW to ENE and with periods greater than 8 seconds ME = 0.37 MAE = 0.74 RMSE = 0.96

  18. BUOY 41053 – San Juan, PR Analyzed only incoming wave from WNW to ENE and with periods greater than 8 seconds ME = 0.57 MAE = 0.72 RMSE = 0.87

  19. Errors at the Buoys MEAN ERROR (ME) - All Waves MEAN ERROR (ME) - Waves with Tp<= 8 MEAN ERROR (ME) - Waves with Tp > 8 NWW3 vs. Buoy 41043 0.55 0.42 0.37 41043 SWAN vs. Buoy 41053 0.41 0.13 0.45 41053 41115 41052 42085

  20. Case Study - Nov 6-10, 2011

  21. Tropical Atlantic MSLP AnalysisNovember 5, 2011

  22. 41047 - NE Bahamas • Swell Decay • Travel distance ≅ 575nm (off Rincón) • Travel time ≅ 30-36hr approximately E = 0°, N = 90°, W = 180°, S=270° Counterclockwise rotation

  23. 41046 - E Bahamas • Buoy Location: • (23.838N, 68.333W) • 332nm (615km) offshore • Travel time ≅ 12-15hr • Travel Distance ≅ 274m

  24. Rincón Buoy (41115)

  25. Nearshore Verification • ≈ 30 hours after the swell event was observed at 41047 • Wave field discrepancies associated to wind forcing errors.

  26. Summary of the Mean Error 0.37÷ 0.45 = 0.822 Errors associated with NWW3 82.2 % Other 18.8 % SWAN Wind Forecast

  27. Conclusion • SWAN results thus far, indicate that the model errors inside our domain are fairly low. • The main error source in our Local SWAN simulations is the initial boundary conditions (spectral energy) from NWW3. • The errors associates with the wind forecast and SWAN are minimal compared with the NWW3 boundary conditions. • The operational NCEP NWW3 has shown a slight high bias as compared with other global models (FNMOC WW3), buoys and satellite observations. (Stripling, et al)

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