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A Walk Through the Global Village |

Explore global economic aggregates, our relationship with our neighbors, hotspots, potential threats, and the future of international currencies. |

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A Walk Through the Global Village |

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  1. A Walk Through the Global Village 11 October 2005 Presented by Dawie Roodt Efficient Group

  2. Index • Us • Our Neighbours • Us and Them • Global Hotspots • If I was the Minister • Threats • Pick Your Currency • What now?

  3. Us

  4. Economic Aggregates

  5. Outcome:Revenue

  6. State Finance

  7. Government Finance

  8. Inflation

  9. Interest Rates De Kock Stals Mboweni

  10. BoP

  11. Gold $800 ANC, Reds fall Elections NOFP + NOFP - Fin Rand Exchange controls Stock market crash Rus, Zim, Arg Asian Rubicon Wakefordgate Rand Valuation

  12. GDP

  13. GDP

  14. Our Neighbours

  15. 4% of African Area 23% of African GDP 21.2% of African Exports

  16. Mistakes made in Africa • Idolise Leaders • Marketing Boards • Nepotism • Incompetence • Corruption • Poor Fiscal Discipline • Too Relaxed Monetary Policy • Unrealistic Projects ? ? ? ?

  17. GDP Source: UN

  18. AIDS Source: UNAIDS

  19. Us and them

  20. £ € Yuan ¥ $ R

  21. Euro Composition

  22. 15 years? € Yuan ¥ $

  23. 50 years? € Yuan ¥ $ €

  24. Sensible? € ? $ €

  25. Percentage of World, ‘04

  26. GDP, y:y Q2 05 Source: Economist

  27. GDP, 99 – ’03 avg Source: World Bank

  28. Inflation, Aug 05 Source: Economist

  29. Interest Rates, Aug 05 Source: Economist

  30. FDI Flows 2003 Central & Eastern Europe FDI In: $20.9bn FDI Out: $7.0bn Western Europe FDI In: $310.2bn FDI Out: $350.3bn North America FDI In: $36.4bn FDI Out: $173.4bn Asia - Winner FDI In: $107.1bn FDI Out: $23.6bn Africa - Loser FDI In: $15bn FDI Out: $1.3bn South America FDI In: $49.7bn FDI Out: $10.7bn Source: World Bank

  31. Global Hotspots

  32. Hotspot • If China grows at its five year average (8.52%) it will surpass the US in 2040 if the US continues at 2.78%

  33. Tax systems

  34. Flat Taxes Systems • Flat tax first introduced in the 19th century • Estonia – 24% • Latvia – 25% • Russia – 13% • Slovakia – 19% • Romania – 16% • US States ranging from 3.5% - 5.3% • Illinois • Indiana • Massachusetts • Michigan • Pennsylvania • Canada provinces • Alberta – 10.5%

  35. Considering Flat Tax Systems • Poland – 15% • Greece – 25% • Czech Republic • Croatia • The Netherlands – 40% • USA

  36. If I was the Minister

  37. Tax Requirements • Consumption tax + 6% • Redistribution tax + tax on dividends • Sin taxes

  38. Tax Requirements • Consumption tax + 6% • Redistribution tax + tax on dividends • Sin taxes • No corporate taxes • No other taxes

  39. Threats

  40. Oil: Impact

  41. Oil: Impact

  42. Commodities

  43. Pick Your Currency

  44. International Currencies

  45. International Currencies

  46. International Currencies

  47. International Currencies

  48. What now?

  49. Asset Allocation, 2005 – Heavy Overweight – Overweight – Neutral – Underweight – Heavy Underweight

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