Forum of Labour Market Ministers Supply and Demand Workshop

Forum of Labour Market MinistersSupply and Demand Workshop STATISTICS CANADA LABOUR MARKET DATA SOURCES Vancouver, October 2007

Outline • Organization of the Labour Market Information at Statistics Canada • Description of the major data sources • Methodology and notes of interest • Strength and weaknesses • Products and Access

LABOUR SUPPLY AND DEMANDMain information sources Population (15+, in scope) Employment Insurance In the labour force Not in labour force Employing businesses Employed Unemployed LFS Census SLID WES Jobs Employees SEPH WES Job vacancies Self-employed LABOUR SUPPLY (potential) LABOUR DEMAND LABOUR SUPPLY (actual)

Labour Force Survey

Labour Force Survey • Data strength and limitations • New content • Aboriginals • Immigrants

Why do we have a Labour Force Survey? Historical origin: • To provide information on the labour market integration of soldiers returning from WWII (1945); • Source of the “official” unemployment rate; • Quarterly survey until 1952; now monthly • Mandatory survey

The Role of the LFS • Economic monitoring: • One of the most important measures of the overall performance of the Canadian economy • Backbone of the household survey program • Employment Insurance (EI): • The regulations of the EI Act designate the LFS as the source of monthly unemployment rates for the 58 EI Regions used in the administration of the EI Program • More than eight billion dollars per year are transferred to individuals on the basis of these rates

Sampling Plan • All persons 15 years of age and over; • Selection of approximately 54,000 dwellings in Canada (110,000 persons); • Each month, 1/6 of respondents are new; the other 5/6 have been interviewed previously.

LFS –data collected Population (15+, in scope) Socio-demographic characteristics (age, sex marital status, education) Geography In the labour force Not in labour force Employed Unemployed • Main activity • Interest in working • Date last worked • For main job (job worked for the most hours): • Occupation/industry • Class of worker * • Job tenure & permanency * • Full/part-time & reason * • Hours (usual, actual, overtime) * • Underemployment • Earnings * • Firm size *, Union coverage * Some information on second job • Multiple jobholder • Job search methods • Type of work sought • Duration of job search • Activity prior to unemployment • Reason for leaving last job • Some information on last job (if in last year)

Criteria for Sample Allocation The CV (coefficient of variation) of the unemployment rate cannot exceed: • 2% for Canada • 7% for each province • 15% for the three-month moving average in employment insurance regions and census metropolitan areas (12 EIRs and 6 CMAs) • 25% for the three-month moving average in economic regions

Need to consider sample variation • Sampling variability: variability results from using a sample of population of interest • 0.5% of dwellings in Canada • indicates how closely an estimate approximates the true value for the population • Sampling variability MUST be considered when making inferences from LFS data

Important not to take too much stock in month-to-month changes

Need to consider the trend also

Things to consider • Make sure to assess month-to-month changes • Look at trend • Consider other factors (ex. unseasonably warm weather) • A real change can be a one time occurrence too (ex. Ontario blackout, ice storm, etc.) • Must also consider the level of detail for which you are looking at month-to-month changes • the more disaggregated, the rarer the population, the higher the sampling variability

Need to consider the effect that seasonal patterns can have on data • Should not look at month-to-month employment changes in unadjusted series to learn about recent employment trends • Sometimes may be more appropriate to use unadjusted data

Make decision based on questions you want to answer

Two new questions added to identify Aboriginal Peoples in LFS Aboriginal identity questions added, starting late 2002 in Alberta, 2003 in Territories, 2004 in other western provinces: 1) Are you an Aboriginal person, that is, North American Indian, Métis or Inuit? 2) Are you North American Indian, Métis or Inuit?

Aboriginal data for remaining provinces • Turned on identity question for remaining provinces in January 2007 • First step will be to evaluate quality of estimates • First release scheduled for fall 2008

Immigrant data collected by the LFS • Starting in January 2006, 5 questions about immigrants were added to the LFS • Objective: To identify immigrants in the LFS and to facilitate analysis of the labour market outcomes of immigrants • Additionally, immigrants also asked all regular LFS questions that were applicable

LFS Immigrant Questions • In what country was … born? • Is…now, or has he/she ever been, a landed immigrant in Canada? • In what year did…first become a landed immigrant? • In what month? (asked only if landed in previous 5 years) • In what country did…complete his/her highest degree, certificate or diploma?

Release of immigrant data • First release on labour market outcome on September 10th, 2007 • Scheduled releases of outcomes by country of birth and country of education for Winter 2008 • Scheduled release of quality of work for Summer 2008 • Data available through client services

More information • labour@statcan.ca

Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours

SEPH Census of Administrative Data (1) • The employer collects income tax on employees’ pay • It makes remittances to the CRA • Once a month: 30% of employment • Twice a month: 10% of employment • Four times a month: 60% of employment • 2 questions added to CRA remittance form in 1993: • employment • gross payroll

SEPH Census of Administrative Data (2) • Includes any amount in box 14 of T4 slip (employment income) • Self-employed workers: most are excluded • Includes income tax remittances that self-employed workers make for a salary that they have paid themselves. • Excludes tax remittances that self-employed workers make on behalf of their business, for business income.

SEPH Census of Administrative Data (3) • A Business Number (BN) may have several Payroll Deduction accounts (PD accounts). • This is an accounting decision made by the business. • The frequency of the pay for each PD account is not recorded on the form. • Thus, it is not obvious which forms to use: • 30 automated rules solve most cases. • The payroll amount on the form represents the total for the group of employees in the PD account.

SEPH Data Processing • Choice of forms for evaluating the number of employees (BN-PD) – 30 automated rules • Imputation of data • Missing forms • Pay and employment values not reported • Inconsistent values • Use of the Business Register (BR) to: • aggregate to the level of the statistical enterprise • allocate complex enterprises (more than one province or industry) • Estimates by province and industry, analysis and corrections

SEPH Potential for Non-sampling Errors • Response and/or capture errors • Choice of form • Imputation: effects measured by CVs • Allocation by province and industry based on BR • profile • industrial coding • Problem of comparability of period 1991-2000 with 2001+

Major conceptual differences driving your choice

TRACKING LABOUR-MARKET PERFORMANCE • Emphasis on LFS • Demographic and other qualitative info • Includes self-employment • Can measure employment and unemployment rates • In Canada, greater investment in household survey • Supporting info from SEPH • Industry detail • Must remove self-employed to compare to LFS • In-depth analysis of differences currently ongoing

Employment Insurance Statistics(EI)

EI Purpose and Description • To provide data on the number of beneficiaries and benefits paid from the Employment Insurance Program • Data sourced from administrative files of HRSDC • microfile of beneficiaries • summary file on claims and benefits paid

EI Employment Insurance –what? Framework does not work well for EI recipients. They are not equivalent to the unemployed. Population (15+, in scope) In the labour force Not in labour force EI recipients could be classified here by labour surveys if they report they are not looking for a job. Employed Unemployed Information available on EI recipients: • Age, sex • Geography (detailed) • Claim status (received, allowed) • Benefit paid (type, amount) • If: disqualified, disentitled EI recipients could be classified here by labour surveys if they report having a job. Would be EI recipients only if they apply for EI and are eligible.

Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID)

SLID Original Objectives of SLID To understand and measure changes in the economic well-being of Canadians and factors affecting these changes. Also the main source of cross-sectional income data, replacing Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) in 1996.

SLID Survey Design • Longitudinal data, among the first at Statistics Canada • Household Panel Survey: from LFS frame • Target population: families/individuals in the 10 provinces (non-institutional, off-reserve) • Survey Content to measure Economic Well-Being: • Labour market and income data • Family composition and its changes • Housing • Variety of additional “explanatory” variables: Education, Geography, Activity Limitation

SLID Survey Design • Households from two “panels” • Each panel remains in the survey for six consecutive years • A new panel is introduced every three years • Reference year 2004: third panel completed • Reference year 2005: fourth panel introduced

SLID Overlapping Sample Design

SLID Content & Questionnaires • One interview conducted between January and March following the reference year • Interview/questionnaire content: • Preliminary background information • Labour Market Experiences, Educational Activity, Family Relationships, and Income • Over 80% of respondents give permission to access their income tax files in place of income questions • Previously (up to reference year 2003), SLID conducted two interviews each year: January to March for all but income questions; and May for income questions

SLID Who is interviewed? • Longitudinal respondents: • All persons aged 16+ in household selected in the first year of a panel • People are interviewed for six years • Movers are followed • Cross sectional respondents: • All longitudinal respondents, and their cohabitants • Interview content: • Income information collected for persons 16+ • Labour, education collected for persons 16 to 69 • Housing variables collected for every household • Disability collected for every person

SLID Organization of content

More information • income@statcan.ca

Workplace and Employee Survey(WES)

WES Purpose and Description • To study how businesses respond to economic and technological change, particularly in human resources

WES Methodology • Annual longitudinal survey of businesses and their employees • 1996 Pilot Survey • 1st wave of longitudinal survey - 1999 • Panel of businesses to be retained in subsequent surveys (up to 8 years) • WES is sun setting

Forum of Labour Market Ministers Supply and Demand Workshop