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Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis Testing. Finding the p-value and interpreting it. Vocab : 2A. Assumptions for Hypothesis Test of proportion:. Independence of events Random sample or representative Sample less than 10% Success/Fail at least 10 each. P. The normal population. Vocab : 7A. H a > H o.

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Hypothesis Testing

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  1. Hypothesis Testing Finding the p-value and interpreting it.

  2. Vocab: 2A Assumptions for Hypothesis Test of proportion: Independence of events Random sample or representative Sample less than 10% Success/Fail at least 10 each P The normal population

  3. Vocab: 7A Ha > Ho P-Values (a decimal number that is a probability) What is the probability that we would see this sample come from the population of the Null Hypothesis Ha The P-Value is the probability of seeing data like these given that Ho is true. H0

  4. Vocab: 6A Ho and C.I. (paired together) If the Ha falls in a C.I. based on your critical value than the Ha is just the normal variableness of sampling. Samples vary – fail to reject the Ho Can’t accept Ho because other samples might fall outside the C.I.

  5. Vocab: 6A Ho and C.I. (paired together) But if the Ha falls outside a C.I. based on your critical value, than the Ha replaces the Ho as the population proportion until another sample comes along that says different. This sample couldn’t have reasonably come from the population – reject the Ho

  6. Not Surprised Surprised ! P-Values (a two tail test vs one tail) 95% 5% 0.05 The smaller the p-value the less likely it was sample variableness

  7. Not Surprised Surprised ! Surprised ! P-Values (a two tail test vs one tail) 95% 2.5% 2.5% 0.025 0.025 The smaller the p-value the less likely it was sample variableness

  8. convert the z-score to a probability and you have your p-value One-Proportion z-test (probability it came from the Null population)

  9. Example #1 • There are supposed to be 20% orange M&Ms. Suppose a bag of 122 has only 21 orange ones. Does this contradict the company's 20% claim? Assumptions: Hypothesis Statement: Null Hypothesis: Alternate Hypothesis: Critical value: P-value: Conclusion in context: Pg 1.2 – z-score Pg 1.3 – p-value

  10. Example #2 • A 1996 report from the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission claimed that at least 90% of all American homes have at least one smoke detector. A city's fire department has been running a public safety campaign about smoke detectors consisting of posters, billboards, and ads on radio and TV and in the newspaper. The city wonders if this concerted effort has raised the local level above the 90% national rate. Building inspectors visit 400 randomly selected homes and find that 376 have smoke detectors. Find Assumptions: Hypothesis Statement: Null Hypothesis: Alternate Hypothesis: Critical value: P-value: Conclusion: Pg 2.1 – z-score Pg 2.2 – p-value

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