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Setting the neighborhood on fire

Setting the neighborhood on fire. Helena Bohman Malmö University. Background. A series of fire incidences in different parts of Malmö, Sweden’s 3rd largest city, peaking in 2008 Part of a larger research project aiming at explaining the outburst and spread of fire incidences.

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Setting the neighborhood on fire

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  1. Setting the neighborhood on fire Helena Bohman Malmö University

  2. Background A series of fire incidences in different parts of Malmö, Sweden’s 3rd largest city, peaking in 2008 Part of a larger research project aiming at explaining the outburst and spread of fire incidences. Purpose: provide an overall picture of the underlying factors

  3. 600 500 400 300 200 100 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Outside of buildings Inside of buildings Figure 3. Number of intentional malicious fire incidences in Malmö 1990-2006. Source: Swedish Civil Contingency Agency

  4. Previous studies Criminological studies point to both indiviualistic and environmental factors. In general, firesetting is a juvenile crime ranging from children’s play with fire to adolescents more or less deliberate actions. Motives: Expressive and instrumental Origin: external or internal

  5. Figure 2. Copper fires in industrial areas, total number of fires and world market copper prices. Source: London metal exchange and Swedish Civil Contingency Agency

  6. Data • Unbalanced panel on neighborhood level, 1992-2008 • Data primarily from municipality and Swedish Civil Contingency Agency

  7. Model specification • Fires are incidence data -> Poisson or related distribution • Negative binomial model is used

  8. Table 3. Regression results from negative binomial panel. Dependent variable: total number of fires. Absolute value of z statistics in parentheses. * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%

  9. Concluding remarks Resultsaresurprisingly robust considering the typeof data. The numberofyouths in the area seemsto be Modelspecification has considerableimpact However, the geographic dimension needsto be included in order toprovide policy implications

  10. Thank you!

  11. References • Agnew, R. 1999, "A General Strain Theory of Community Differences in Crime Rates", Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 123-155. • Agnew, R., Matthews, S.K., Bucher, J., Welcher, A.N. & Keyes, C. 2008, "Socioeconomic Status, Economic Problems, and Delinque ncy", Youth & Society, vol. 40, no. 2, pp. 159-181. • Becker, G.S. 1968, "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 76, no. 2, pp. pp. 169-217. • Bennett, L. 2008, "Assets under attack: metal theft, the built environment and the dark side of the global recycling market", Environmental law and management, vol. 20, pp. 176-183. • Chhetri, P., Corcoran, J., Stimson, R.J. & Inbakaran, R. 2010, "Modelling Potential Socio-economic Determinants of Building Fires in South East Queensland", Geographical Research, vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 75-85. • Corcoran, J., Higgs, G., Brunsdon, C., Ware, A. & Norman, P. 2007, "The use of spatial analytical techniques to explore patterns of fire incidence: A South Wales case study", Computers, Environment and urban Systems, vol. 31, pp. 623. • Corcoran, J., Higgs, G. & Higginson, A. 2011, "Fire incidence in metropolitan areas: A comparative study of Brisbane (Australia) and Cardiff (United Kingdom)", Applied Geography, vol. 31, pp. 65. • Hausman, J., Hall, B.H. & Griliches, Z. 1984, "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R & D Relationship", Econometrica, vol. 52, no. 4, pp. pp. 909-938. • Markowitz, S. 2010, "Where there's smoking, there's fire:The effects of smoking policies on the incidence of fires in the United States", NBER Working Papers, vol. 16625. • Putnam, C.T. & Kirkpatrick, J.T. 2005, "Juvenile Firesetting: A Research Overview", Juvenile Justice Bulletin, US Department of Justice, vol. May. • Sidebottom, A., Belur, J., Bowers, K., Tompson, L. & Johnson, S.D. 2011, "Theft in Price-Volatile Markets: On the Relationship between Copper Price and Copper Theft", Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, vol. 48, no. 3, pp. 396-418. • Swaffer, T. & Hollin, C.R. 1995, "Adolescent firesetting: why do they say they do it?", Journal of adolescence, vol. 18, no. 5, pp. 619-623. • White, G.C. & Bennetts, R.E. 1996, "Analysis of Frequency Count Data Using the Negative Binomial Distribution", Ecology, vol. 77, no. 8, pp. pp. 2549-2557.

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