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Industry Trends and Media Valuations

Industry Trends and Media Valuations. 2013 Media Industry Tax Conference May 15 - 17, 2013 Wild Dunes Resort Isles of Palms, South Carolina. FASB Accounting Topics STILL Underway.

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Industry Trends and Media Valuations

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  1. Industry Trends and Media Valuations 2013 Media Industry Tax ConferenceMay 15 - 17, 2013Wild Dunes ResortIsles of Palms, South Carolina

  2. FASB Accounting Topics STILL Underway ASC 840 – Accounting for Leases requires lessor to set up an asset and the lessee a liability. Requires testing for Fair Value impairment - Another Exposure Draft. ASC 320 Investments – Debt and Equity Securities – SEC Suggested Additional Changes ASC 825 Financial Instruments – provide guidance on measuring the Fair Value of financial assets and liabilities and recognizing impairment - Now a Proposed Accounting Standards Update. AICPA Practice Aid (Working Draft) Valuation of Privately-Held Company Equity Securities Issued as Compensation – Still in Draft, Not Updated Since 2004

  3. Time Spent with Media (2009 - 2012)

  4. % Time Spent vs. % Ad Spend ~$20B Opportunity in USA Source: eMarketer. Note: Print includes newspaper and magazines. $20B opportunity calculated assuming Internet and Mobile ad spend share equal their respective time spent share. Source: eMarketer 3/13. 4

  5. Advertising Revenue by Segment 5 Source: eMarketer and Wall Street Research.

  6. TV Broadcast – Political Spending POLITICAL SPENDING (1999-2012E) ($ in millions) • Odd Year CAGR: 20% (1999-2011) • Even Year CAGR: 15% (2000-2012) SPENDING BY CATEGORY (2012E) Note: CAGR is based on the specific even/odd year periods of the data range presented.

  7. TV Broadcast – Spectrum Value Spectrum Value: • 2008 – 700mhz spectrum auction averaged $1.28 per Mhz per pop • 2011 – Verizon purchase of AWS spectrum (1700/2100mhz) from SpectrumCo and Cox averaged $0.69 per Mhz per pop (was $0.46 in 2006) • 2013 Estimate – Average 700mhz spectrum value of $1.65 per Mhz per pop based on AWS appreciation Implied License Values as Telecom Spectrum: • New York Market: $1.65 per pop x 27.0 mil. population x 6 Mhz of spectrum = $267.3 mil. license value • Los Angeles Market: $1.65 per pop x 22.0 mil. population x 6 Mhz of spectrum = $217.8 mil. license value • Chicago Market: $1.65 per pop x 11.5 mil. population x 6 Mhz of spectrum = $113.9 mil. license value Traditional Broadcast License Values assuming 2% Market Revenue Share, 30% Margin, and 9x Multiple: • New York Market: $59.0 mil. license value • Los Angeles Market: $66.0 mil. license value • Chicago Market: $41.0 mil. license value Source: Bond & Pecaro Inc.

  8. Radio – Broad Reach Radio has consistently reached a large audience across age groups; the change in usage of new technologies (iPods, digital downloads and satellite products in autos) remain a risk to station owners. Average Daily Reach of Five Media Medium Average Weekly Reach of Radio Age Demographic 8 Source: Intermedia Dimensions and Arbitron.

  9. Newspapers – Industry vs. Google USA TOTAL NEWSPAPER PRINT + ONLINE REVENUE vs. GOOGLE USA REVENUE 10 Source: Demand Media Note that Search = ~50% of USA Online Ad Revenue ($15B based on Q2 run rate) in 2011 vs. <5% in 2001; Display = 23% of Online Ad Revenue ($7B) in 2011 vs. 62% in 2011.

  10. Cable Programming – U.S. Cable Programming Network Revenue The basic cable programming business in the U.S. is ~$48 billion in size based on 2011 reported data from SNL Kagan. 3.9% CAGR: 10.3% 11.8% 9.2% From 2001 to 2011, basic cable programming revenue (including affiliate revenue, advertising and other revenue) grew at an estimated 10% CAGR, faster than virtually all other traditional media subsectors. Source: Wall Street Research and SNL Kagan.

  11. Cable Programming – Industry Revenue Mix MAJOR NETWORKS AFFILIATE vs. ADVERTISING REVENUE BREAKOUT CABLE PROGRAMMING INDUSTRY REVENUE MIX – 2011 TOP 10 – 2011E SUBSCRIBER FEES Source: Wall Street Research and SNL Kagan.

  12. Growth

  13. Profitability

  14. Recent Transactions Cable Programming – Very Little Activity. Last major deals were NBCU channels to Comcast and Travel Channel to Scripps. Outdoor Channel in play and Board to vote on prospective purchaser. Cable MSOs – Cablevision sold Optimum West (formerly Bresnan) to Charter for $1.6 bil., reportedly 8.9x CF. Suddenlink recapitalization and Wave and Atlantic Broadband deals were the other large transactions. Remaining deals are mostly smaller systems. Multiples ranged from 6.0-8.9x CF. Larger deals 8.0–9.0x CF. Magazines/Newspapers – Surprising level of activity. A number of acquisitions by Warren Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway. Spin-off of former Media General and Freedom newspapers. Multiples have recovered into the 4-5x CF range. Time Warner magazine spin-off underway.

  15. Recent Transactions – Ctd. Outdoor – NextMedia sale to Lamar in Nov. 2012 last big transaction. Smaller deals are occurring with multiples firming up recently. A few small like-kind exchanges. A number of large outdoor companies are converting to REITs. Deals have been between 6.0 - 7.0x CF. Radio – Activity has slowed since 2012. Few deals have occurred. Cox Radio exchange. A few non-commercial transactions. Few large market deals. Multiples have declined slightly. In the 6.5 – 9.0x CF range. Television – Numerous large transactions: Sinclair purchase of Fisher, Barrington, and Newport properties. Nexstar purchase of CCA and Newport stations. LIN Media purchase of NewVision properties. Largest single station deal was Journal purchase of Landmark Media station in Nashville. Some minor stations and low-power stations being bought by spectrum speculators – NRJ and OTA. Multiples stable in the 8.5 – 10.5x range.

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