Best practice for ensuring quality in international statistics - The Principal Global Indicators -

1. Best practice for ensuring quality in international statistics- The Principal Global Indicators - Werner Bier, Per Nymand-Andersen European Central Bank Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities (CCSA) Conference on quality in international Statistics, Athens, 29 May 2012

2. Overview 1 • Policy needs for International Statistics • Ensuring quality and best practice • Concepts and methodology • Operational set-up 2 3 • Principle Global Indicators (PGIs) 4 • Statistical challenges 2 4 1 3 International Statistics

3. Policy needs for International Statistics 1 Policy needs for multilateral surveillance and coordination The financial and sovereign debt crisis has revealed that • Interconnectedness and interdependence among open economies play an important role in the size, nature and policy responses of systemic risks • Systemic risks depend on thecollective behaviour offinancial intermediaries, markets, infrastructures and depends on the interaction between the financial system and the real economy

4. Policy needs for International Statistics 1 Policy needs for multilateral surveillance and coordination • Policy responses remain mainly bound to the national territory (exceptional cases supranational (e.g. ECB)) • Multilateral policy responses are crucial for mitigating risks to financial stability and for creating strong, sustainable and balanced growth • Multilateral policy responses require enhanced and global comparableeconomic and financial statistics and indicators

5. Policy needs for International Statistics 1 Policy needs for multilateral surveillance and coordination • Group of 20 (G20) Leaders' requested a range of statistical indicators to identify large imbalances among economics (Seoul Summit) • The main priority actions relate to reduce excessive imbalances and to maintain current account imbalances at sustainable levels • For this purpose, a set of comparable statistical indicators is required

6. Policy needs for International Statistics 1 Policy needs for multilateral surveillance and coordination • Main comparable international indicators: • public debt and fiscal deficits • private savings rate • private debt • external imbalance • Easy accessibility of official statistics/indicators • G20 and Global statistical aggregates (e.g. G20 GDP)

7. Ensuring quality and best practice 2 Concepts and methodology • International statistical standards are available • Fundamental Principles and agreed Quality frameworks exist • Excellent international and regional networks and governance among national statistical agencies and international organisations are in place • Data exchange formats among international and supranational organisations (SDMX) are developed

8. Ensuring quality and best practice 2 Operational set-up The key statistical challenges lie in the ability to • coordinate among the network of international and national authorities • synchronise the various statistical activities • converge and apply a common set of statistical concepts, guidance and methodological notes • governance assessments – check and balances

9. Ensuring quality and best practice 2 Operational set-up • Do the statistical authorities agree on the detailed statistical requirements ? • Have the international statistical standards been applied ? • Is the data flow from national authorities to international organisations synchronised ? • Limited (timely) G20 and Global aggregates available (G20 quarterly growth rates) • If statisticians do not deliver – the market will

10. Principal Global Indicators (PGIs) 3 First results to meet G20 demands • Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics • BIS, ECB, Eurostat, IMF, OECD, UN and the World Bank • Focus on • the G20 economies plus 5 non-G20 Financial Stability Board (FSB) countries • key economic and financial statistics and indicators

11. Principal Global Indicators (PGIs) 3 First results to meet G20 demands

12. Principal Global Indicators (PGIs) 3 External debt /Real GDP First results to meet G20 policy demand

13. Statistical challenges 4 • The PGIs will be further enhanced to • comply with the data transmission standard SDMX • support visualisation tools • include additional G20 andglobal aggregates • become a supporting tool for G20 policies

14. Statistical challenges 4 • The Inter-Agency Group therefore continues to work on the (detailed) statistical requirements: • Agreement on detailed reporting templates (coverage, frequency, timeliness, adjustments) • Tier 1: Core Aggregates; • Tier 2: Detailed breakdowns; • Tier 3:Specificities of the individual economy • Agreement on the data flow among the international organisations, including the related quality management

15. Statistical challenges 4 • The Inter-Agency Group members aim at • applying common reporting templates and implementation plans • a pilot project on sector accounts and their integration with e.g. government finance statistics and securities issues statistics • synchronising the data sources/flow and quality monitoring (Who does what by when) • applying the SDMX concept to the PGIs • involving the G20 economies where needed

16. Conclusions 4 • Official statistics is called upon to support multilateral surveillance policies in a world of global imbalances and uneven global recovery (G20 policy driven needs) • The international and national statistical authorities have the statistical, technical and organisational skills to master this challenge (close cooperation) • Pilot exercises are needed to prove effective international cooperation by releasing comparable and timely international statistics • The policy needs are there. If the statistical authorities can not deliver, the market will replace them