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Advancing Sustainability in a Competitive World Peter Willis South African Director

Advancing Sustainability in a Competitive World Peter Willis South African Director University of Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership. Our Exuberant Journey to Here. The Population Take-Off. X 3,5 in 100 years. More ‘Stuff’ per Person. X 10 in 100 years. The Turning Point?.

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Advancing Sustainability in a Competitive World Peter Willis South African Director

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  1. Advancing Sustainability in a Competitive World Peter Willis South African Director University of Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership

  2. Our Exuberant Journey to Here

  3. The Population Take-Off X 3,5 in 100 years

  4. More ‘Stuff’ per Person X 10 in 100 years

  5. The Turning Point? In 1712, Thomas Newcomen’s steam engine was deployed to pump water from flooded mines in Dudley, England… by turning heat into motion.

  6. Our Recent Encounter with Hard Limits

  7. “Anyone who believes continuous growth is possible on a finite Earth is either a madman or an economist.” Kenneth Boulding (Economist)

  8. 2050

  9. 2012

  10. A Rather Dry Planet All water Freshwater & Ice Oceans: 96.5% Ice: 1.76% Fresh water: 0.76% Drinking water: c.0.1% Spheres showing:(1) All water (sphere over western U.S., 860 miles in diameter) (2) Fresh liquid water in the ground, lakes, swamps, and rivers (sphere over Kentucky, 169.5 miles in diameter), and (3) Fresh-water lakes and rivers (sphere over Georgia, 34.9 miles in diameter). Credit: Dr Adam Nieman

  11. SA Portion of River Basin 2000 2025 Population WCI Population WCI Orange-Senqu 11 319 1 068 19 502 1 840 Limpopo 11 906 2 450 18 790 3 867 Incomati 1 122 363 1 933 626 Maputo 1 165 340 2 009 587 WCI values: 0 – 100 = Water security 100 – 500 = Water sufficiency 500 – 1 000 = Occasional, seasonal water stress 1 000 – 2 000 = Frequent water stress; seasonally severe > 2 000 = “Beyond the water barrier” - chronic water stress “Water Crowding Index” Water Crowding Index (WCI) = Number of people per million cubic metres of water – (South African catchment portion) Source: Dr Peter Ashton, CSIR 2010

  12. 1. Dramatic increase in urban sector demand for water in all basins 2. Large increase in power sector demand for water in the Orange- Senqu and Limpopo basins 3. Increased water demands from rural and mining sectors in Limpopo basin Anticipated % Increase in Water Needs by Sector - 2025

  13. ENERGY & Other Resources

  14. The Economy = Mobility

  15. Coal Crude Oil Biomass Natural Gas Hydro Other Nuclear Renewables Crude Oil Biofuels Other Transport 2,299 Mtoe The Oil Dependency of Transport 6%Crude Oil 2%Biofuel 5%Other 93%Crude Oil Power Generation 4,605 Mtoe Source: IEA Key Energy Statistics & WEO 2010 (data for 2008)

  16. “The Flame in the Darkness” “The consumption of the world’s accessible oil endowment will occur over a two-century span of human history” M. King Hubbert – c. 1955

  17. The End of Easy Oil IEA via The Guardian,2009

  18. No Electricity – Mobility Fails India: 31 July 2012

  19. The End of Cheap Coal?

  20. The End of Cheap Everything?

  21. CLIMATE CHANGE Our Very Own, First Ever Global Emergency

  22. The Greenhouse Effect

  23. Up to c.1850 2012 CO2 & other gases

  24. Global Temperature Rising

  25. Poles Warming Faster

  26. Sudden Non-Linear Changes Extent of surface melt over Greenland’s ice sheet on July 8 2012 (left) and July 12 (right). Satellites showed that on July 8, about 40% of the ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. In just a few days, the melting had dramatically accelerated and an estimated 97% of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12.

  27. Source: UNEP, 2006

  28. A Drier (and Wetter) Future US National Center for Atmospheric Research:“Drought Under Global Warming – A Review” Oct 2010

  29. Drought in US

  30. Consequences are likely to be very serious High probability of serious water, food, ecosystem and extreme weather effects Source: IPCC 3rd Assessment Report. 2007.

  31. Consequences (cont.) +5°C +4°C +1°C +3°C +2°C

  32. Climate change exacerbates existing threats and generates new ones Number of people affected by climate-related disasters Developing countries Developed countries No. of people affected (millions) Source: UNEP GEO-4 report 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

  33. What are our Options? • Only three options available to us: • Mitigate • Avoid the unmanageable • Adapt • Manage the unavoidable • Suffer • Put up with the unavoidable

  34. Why +2˚C threshold is so important Cost to Society Suffer Adapt Mitigate +2˚C +4˚C

  35. How can we Mitigate? Moderate population growth Reduce demand (i.e. quantitative growth) Maximise energy efficiency Lower carbon intensity of energy supply

  36. Implications for Labour Law? • The End of Growth? • Formal employment will probably suffer most. • BUT… • There will be LOTS to do! • Co-operatives? • Maximization of profit may be replaced by optimization of resilience.

  37. Thank You peter.willis@cpsl.cam.ac.uk

  38. Our Exuberant Journey to Here

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