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Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1. David Griffin Peter Oke, Andreas Schiller (CSIRO) and Gary Brassington (BMRC). 20 ºC in winter? Global warming?. Just a localised anomaly, really. If not global warming, then what?.

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Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

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  1. Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1 David Griffin Peter Oke, Andreas Schiller (CSIRO) and Gary Brassington (BMRC)

  2. 20ºC in winter? Global warming?

  3. Just a localised anomaly, really.If not global warming, then what?

  4. #2: 15ºC in summer? Please explain

  5. Watch this cyclonic eddy develop:

  6. 14 Feb

  7. 15 Feb

  8. 16 Feb

  9. 17 Feb

  10. 18 Feb

  11. 19 Feb

  12. 20 Feb

  13. 21 Feb

  14. 22 Feb

  15. 23 Feb

  16. Argo profile in centre of cold eddy: Argo atlas Temperature

  17. What do these events have in common? • Both are consequences of a stronger EAC • Very warm east of Tasmania last summer • more on the way? • what will it mean?

  18. Puerulus settlement, SA and Tas: wind model observed

  19. No, we’re not there yet. • Annual cycle OK. • Inter-annual variability is not. • The cause of five-fold changes to recruitment success for Southern Rock Lobster remains a mystery

  20. Conclusions • There’s never been so much interest in the future • We don’t know what’s going to happen • science does not yet have the answers • spotting wrong answers is often easier • we have produced BRAN to foster ecological research • please use it

  21. Thank you

  22. BRAN1.0  BRAN1.5  BRAN2.0

  23. BRAN1.0  BRAN1.5  BRAN2.0

  24. Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS • Multivariate assimilation system: • sea level obs correct h,T,S,U,V Single point assimilation …

  25. Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS • The spatial structure of the covariances are determined by the statistics of the free-running model. Influence of sealevel obs at x

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