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RISK BASED DECISIONS – THE ROLE OF SCIENTIFIC EXPERTISE AND JUDGEMENT

RISK BASED DECISIONS – THE ROLE OF SCIENTIFIC EXPERTISE AND JUDGEMENT. PAUL DAVIES HSE’s Chief Scientist & Director Of the Hazardous Installations Directorate. HEALTH AND SAFETY EXECUTIVE. The regulator for health and safety at the workplace, including risk to the public Wide remit

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RISK BASED DECISIONS – THE ROLE OF SCIENTIFIC EXPERTISE AND JUDGEMENT

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  1. RISK BASED DECISIONS – THE ROLE OF SCIENTIFIC EXPERTISE AND JUDGEMENT PAUL DAVIES HSE’s Chief Scientist & Director Of the Hazardous Installations Directorate

  2. HEALTH AND SAFETY EXECUTIVE • The regulator for health and safety at the workplace, including risk to the public • Wide remit • Strong scientific base • Highly integrated • Annual spend of 15% of total budget on commissioned S&T (£37m)

  3. H&S REGULATORY FRAMEWORK • Goal setting prescriptive • Risk to be As Low as Reasonably Practicable – ALARP • ALARP test • Friendly to innovation • Continuous improvement • Risk Regulatory Framework

  4. HSE CRITERIA FOR THE TOLERABILITY OF RISK Unacceptable region Tolerable region Increasing risks and societal concerns Broadly Acceptable region Negligible risk

  5. CHARACTERISTICS OF RISK High X Tripping accident Increasing “Societal concern” Probability Xoffshore installation explosion High Low

  6. REGULATING H&S RISKS Risk Spectrum Routine/low hazard Rare/high hazard Permissive Approach Permissioned Approach Eg Safety Cases Generic Risk assessment Case Specific Risk Assessment Compliance + Good Practice/Standards Compliance + ALARP Demonstration What more could be done? Why is it not being done? Qualitative + QRA/ASA/SRA Science & Engineering Judgement

  7. KNOWLEDGE BASED CONTRIBUTIONS • ASA – Advanced Structural Analysis • Representation of behaviour • Ability to account for deterioration • SRA – Structural Reliability Analysis • Examination of uncertainties and sensitivities • Ability to explore failure surface

  8. COMPETENCE BASED REQUIREMENTS • Education • Training • Periodical updates to reflect changing knowledge

  9. INTEGRATING ASA AND SRA • Accurate integrated analysis • Realistic structural response • Used for reliability based optimum design • Leads to efficiency, effectiveness and safety • Reduced weight, cost and time of construction

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