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Analyzing Fleets for Alternative Fuels

Analyzing Fleets for Alternative Fuels. Tyler Svitak Clean Cities Manager. PRESENTATION OVERVIEW. Clean Cities, Refuel Colorado Fleets Alternative Fuel Benefits Lifecycle Cost Factors Electric CNG/LPG Fleet Analysis Example Variable Fleet Homogenous Fleet.

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Analyzing Fleets for Alternative Fuels

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  1. Analyzing Fleets for Alternative Fuels Tyler Svitak Clean Cities Manager

  2. PRESENTATION OVERVIEW • Clean Cities, Refuel Colorado Fleets • Alternative Fuel Benefits • Lifecycle Cost Factors • Electric • CNG/LPG • Fleet Analysis Example • Variable Fleet • Homogenous Fleet

  3. 2. ALTERNATIVE FUEL INFLUENCES Lower lifecycle cost Energy independence, stability Cleaner burning

  4. Alternative Fuel Benefits Lower Lifecycle Cost ROI Opportunities

  5. LIFECYCLE COSTS Price tag is just 1 factor • Life cycle cost comparison factors: • Unit price • Delivery, shipping, transportation • Fuel (increasing over time) • Routine maintenance • Cost of money over time (net present value) • Resale value

  6. Lifecycle Costs • Higher incremental price tag • Gain ROI through fuel cost reduction • CNG $2.12/gge, LPG $2.56/gge, Electricity $1.14/eGallon • Fast ROI: • High VMT • High fuel consumption • Home base fueling

  7. NO SILVER BULLETAlt Fuels most likely to succeed in each vehicle class: f

  8. FUEL PRICE VOLATILITY COST PER GAL $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 Diesel Retail price $4.43/GGE (early 2008) Gasoline Retail price $3.77/GGE (early 2008) 10% Taxes Distribution and Marketing 5% CNG Retail price $2.10/GGE (early 2008) 10% Taxes 21% Refining Distribution and Marketing 5% 10% Refining 64% 75% Electricity Retail price $1.14/eGallon 18% Taxes 6% Electricity Pipeline 9% Operations Maintenance Amortization 42% Crude OIl Crude OIl Taxes 15% 30% Transmission and Delivery Natural Gas Capital Costs 30% 26% Fuel Costs 25% Source: US DoE EERE, EIA, and NGVA

  9. Fuel Prices

  10. Analysis • OK, Alt fuels MAY be cheaper… • How much cheaper? • When will I see an ROI? • What is my initial capital cost?

  11. Lifecycle Cost Factors • Comparing Conventional Replacement with Alternative • Operating Costs Only • Lifecycle Analysis isn’t Exact

  12. Analysis Detail • Simple analysis • Groups of similar vehicles • Consistent duty cycles, operations • Trucking operations, HVAC, aggregate, refuse • 2 EXAMPLE • Comprehensive fleet analysis • Variable fleets with multiple duty-cycles • Long term planning • Large government, corporate fleets • EXAMPLE

  13. Simple Analysis - AFDC • http://www.afdc.energy.gov/tools/ • http://www.afdc.energy.gov/calc/

  14. Simple Analysis - Excel

  15. Comprehensive Analysis - Excel

  16. Limiting Factors • Vehicle Availability • OEM vs. Conversion • Daily Range vs. Vehicle Range • Infrastructure Location vs. Vehicle Location • Space/tank limitations • Performance is NOT an issue

  17. Considerations • Analysis doesn’t cover: • Infrastructure Cost • Vehicle Service • Maintenance Bay Upgrades • Operating savings will determine justification

  18. Conclusion • Products are proven • ROI opportunities can be found within most fleets • The problem is only going to get worse • Rising fuel prices • Volatile fuel budgets • It’s a process – but a process worth making… so, PLAN NOW!!

  19. Mike OgburnCleanEnergyEconomy.net • Maria EisemannNorthernColoradoCleanCities.org • Tyler SvitakDenverCleanCities.org

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