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COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems

COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems. Gan Wang COSYSMO Workshop 23 rd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling and ICM Workshop USC Campus, Los Angeles, CA Oct. 29 & 30, 2008. COSYSMO Implementation at BAE Systems.

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COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems

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  1. COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems Gan Wang COSYSMO Workshop 23rd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling and ICM Workshop USC Campus, Los Angeles, CA Oct. 29 & 30, 2008

  2. COSYSMO Implementation at BAE Systems • Developed System Engineering Estimation Model and Process (SEEMaP) • Estimating end-to-end, system engineering and integration effort in a system development program • Company-wide, common estimating tool deployed across major sites, lines of business (LoBs) and operating groups (OGs), including New Hampshire, San Diego, New Jersey, New York… • Desktop tool, calibrated with historical program data across LoBs • With organization and product line-specific calibrations • Applied to • ROM estimates • Engineering bid & proposal • Trade studies SEEMaP Workbook: Encapsulating Tool and Process

  3. Early Results Excellent • Deployed in 2007-2008 to E&IS OG • Applied to: ROM, bid & proposal, risk analysis • Mandated use by several organizations • Outstanding correlation achieved between estimate and actual in calibrations • Early experience shows excellent result: • Variance with other methods (bottom-up): 2–25% • Effort to create estimate: 2-8 hours • Cost saving and cycle time reduction: 85–95% • (Bottom-up may take up to weeks) SEEMaP (COSYSMO) Calibration

  4. Quantitative Risk Analysis • COSYSMO provides single-point estimates • With fixed driver counts and classification • Integrating Crystal Ball quantifies the uncertainty and provides quantitative risk analysis through Monte Carlo Simulation • Crystal Ball will provide a quantified output range of the various scenarios, with a probability of occurrence • A sensitivity analysis provides insight into which inputs most effect the outcome • Now it is possible to offer (true) 50/50, 80/20, 20/80 risk positions • Not just to claim them Sizing Parameters Degrees of Reuse and Difficulties

  5. Monte Carlo Simulation Monte Carlo Simulation Generates an Estimate Distribution Input Distribution

  6. In the Works • Total Engineering Estimation Model and Process (TEEMaP) • Extending SEEMaP & COSYSMO capabilities to total engineering • Estimating the total, end-to-end engineering effort in development a system • Deployment in 2009 • Apply to company LCM Framework ROM to determine Cost & Risk positions relative to PTW Validate contract pricing & quick trades for scope negotiation Develop cost targets & validation of total/functional engineering bids Evaluate technology insertion, upgrades, & new opportunities TEEMaP TEEMaP TEEMaP TEEMaP Phase Reviews Prepare Bid/No Bid Information Prepare Proposal Contract Accepted Mobilize Initial Design Design System Integration of System System Qualification Production, Installation and Commissioning In-Field Support Disposal 1B 2A 2B 2C 3A 3B 4 5 6 7 Milestone Reviews TEEMaP Develop engineering baselines and milestone reviews & ETCs CDR SRR PRR SDR/PDR TRR

  7. Questions and Comments Gan Wang gan.wang@baesystems.com 703-668-4259

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