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Predicting Changes in Medina County

Predicting Changes in Medina County. How Demographic Changes Might Affect Public Safety Forces. Stephen D. Hambley, Ph.D. Medina County Commissioner 2/3/06. Feel a little like a TV Weatherman making a 7 day forecast…. Gather best possible data in shortest amount of time

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Predicting Changes in Medina County

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  1. Predicting Changes in Medina County How Demographic Changes Might Affect Public Safety Forces Stephen D. Hambley, Ph.D. Medina County Commissioner 2/3/06

  2. Feel a little like a TV Weatherman making a 7 day forecast… • Gather best possible data in shortest amount of time • Access the wealth of talent and experience available at minimal cost • Utilize best scientific methodology practical to predict changes • Write down and communicate brief presentation that is informative and entertaining • Hope that no one remembers what I predict a week from now • Unless I am right

  3. What is Happening in Medina County • Medina County is…. • Gaining in population and new houses • Getting older • Getting wealthier • Experiencing local manifestations of national Tax Revolt

  4. Medina County Population Continues to Grow Faster Than Predicted 2004 Population Estimate by US Census 165,077

  5. New Home Construction Medina County 1975-2005 MEDINA COUNTY ONLY – BRUNSWICK, MEDINA & WADSWORTH DATA NOT INCLUDED SOURCE: MEDINA COUNTY BUILDING DEPARTMENT; FEDERAL HOME MORTGAGE CORPORATION

  6. Trend of New Home Construction in Medina County 28% Cost Increase since 1999

  7. In-MigrationAn Important Factor in Our Recent Growth SOURCE: Office of Strategic Research,Ohio Department of Development

  8. Where are all the people coming from? One Major Contributor: Cuyahoga County

  9. The Households Migrating To Medina County are Considerably Wealthier Than Those Moving Into Cuyahoga County from Medina County Income Transfers Associated With Household Migration From Cuyahoga County, RW Layton, NOACA Data Source: IRS

  10. Medina County is Not Alone in Gaining Wealthy Households

  11. Percent Change in Per Capita Income 1996-2001

  12. End ResultCuyahoga County Still has Some Wealthy HouseholdsWhile the Wealth is being Spread Around the Region Medina and Cuyahoga still better than state median income!

  13. Commuting from Medina County Will Grow as Wealthy Households Journey to Work 2000 Journey to Work Data With 76,548 people (2000) in workforce means 53% of working population commutes out of county 53% of 89,900 estimated Civilian labor force in 2004 would translate to over 47,600 Medina County commuters daily! Source: CTPP County Level Journey to Work Data, NOACA Technical Memorandum (June 2003)

  14. More Commuters Combine More Vehicles from…. More Traffic Generators More Interstate Travel Means EMS & Fire Departments are only going to get busier!

  15. FUTURE TREND: Baby Boomers Gain Bigger Share of Population 117% Increase since 2000 31% Increase since 2000 SOURCE: Office of Strategic Research, Ohio Department of Development (2003)

  16. CONSEQUENCES OF AGING • Seniors are 2.5 times more likely to die in fires than the overall population. • Fire and the Older Adult, National Fire Data Center (2006) • Non-fatal injury rates increase with age. • “Public Health and Aging” CDC (2003) • Relative to their pre-retirement living standards, all baby boom retirees will be worse off than current retirees. Most retirees will not have as much income in retirement as they did in their working years. • It’s All Relative: Understanding the Retirement Prospects of Baby Boomers, THE URBAN INSTITUTE (2003)

  17. CONSEQUENCES OF AGING • The increased number of persons aged >65 years will lead to increased health-care costs. • The rapid growth in the number of older persons, coupled with continued advances in medical technology, is expected to create upward pressure on health- and long-term--care spending. • “Public Health and Aging: Trends in Aging --- United States and Worldwide”, CDC (February 14, 2003) • The risks of falling into poor health, losing the ability to work or live independently, becoming widowed, becoming jobless and experiencing other negative events that threaten financial security increase with age. • SOURCE: When the Nest Egg Cracks: Financial Consequences of Health Problems, Marital Status Changes, and Job Layoffs at Older Ages. THE URBAN INSTITUTE (2006)

  18. Consequences of Aging Community • More public safety demands • Greater frequency and severity of calls • More non-emergency public service demands • More “aging in place” issues • Home maintenance and access problems • Less household wealth to support local services • Problems are worse for stagnant communities

  19. Politics and Money • Meeting increased service demands is going to cost more • Where does the additional money come from?

  20. Public View Tax Fairness Changes Over Time Growing Dissatisfaction with Local Property Tax

  21. Taking Federal Taxes Out of the Question “Of the following state and local taxes, which do you think is the worst tax- that is, the least fair? Source: Public Opinion on Taxes, American Enterprise Institute (October 31, 2005)

  22. Current Tax Revolt • Tax Expenditure Limitation Amendment (TEL) • Successful initiative Referendum scheduled for ballot November 2006 • Similar limitations exist in 27 states and, according to proponents, have been effective in restraining state and local government spending.

  23. Principal parts of TELA • Section 14(A) of the amendment requires a majority vote of Ohio voters to increase state expenditures above a spending cap. • Cap is calculated using the sum of the rate of inflation plus the rate of population change in the state, or three and one half per cent. • Section 14(B) of the amendment mandates the establishment of a “budget reserve fund,” - one half unencumbered moneys must be transferred to the budget reserve fund, and the other one half must be refunded to individual state income tax taxpayers.

  24. Principal parts of TELA • Section 14(B) of the amendment mandates the establishment of a “budget reserve fund.” • Requires that one half of the sum of unencumbered moneys be transferred to the budget reserve fund, and the other one half must be refunded to individual state income tax taxpayers. • Section 14(C) of the amendment prohibits the state from requiring a political subdivision to fulfill any state mandate unless that mandate is fully funded by the state. • Section 14(D) requires the state to appropriate each year an amount equal to five per cent of “aggregate state expenditures” to a “local government fund.”

  25. Principal parts of TELA • Section 14(E) of the amendment requires a majority vote of the electors of a political subdivision to authorize that political subdivision to (i) increase expenditures beyond a spending cap (inflation plus rate of population change in the political subdivision), or three and one half per cent, (ii) increase taxes, or (iii) create a new tax. • Expenditures of moneys received from the federal or state government or as a gift from a donor, or for a refund or an emergency, are excluded from the political subdivision spending cap and the calculation of that cap.

  26. Early Polling Shows Strong Support Akron Buckeye Poll, Bliss Institute • Among likely voters, two thirds (66%) of those surveyed said they support the plan to limit the growth in state spending. • Support for the TEL was strong among Independents (69.2%) and Republicans (79.3%), but other groups were supportive as well, including self-identified Democrats (53.1%), members of labor unions (58.7%), and African-Americans (59%). • Respondents “disgusted” with Ohio politics were much less supportive (56.7%) than those who were “satisfied” (80.6%). • The Akron Buckeye Poll was conducted for the Bliss Institute September 28 - October 20 among 409 likely voters, and has a margin of error plus or minus 5 percentage points

  27. Future of Local Public Safety Force Levies? Maybe not that bad – there are some mitigating factors…

  28. Adequate Performance MeasurementsEMS Benchmarks 2004 Most Important to Average Public Not Bad, But Needs Improvement Ohio EMS Incident Report System: Time Segment Definitions Out of Chute: from Time Unit Notified to Time Unit En Route To Scene: from Time Unit En Route to Time Unit On Scene On Scene: from Time Unit On Scene to Time Unit Departed Scene Transport: from Time Unit Departed Scene to Time Unit Arrived At Hospital Return to Service: from Time Unit Arrived At Hospital to Time Unit Back In Service Total Time: from Time Unit Notified to Time Unit En Route SOURCE: Ohio EMS Data Center (2004 Regional PI Benchmarks) & City of Brunswick

  29. Changes in Medina County Voters Source: Medina County Board of Elections Registered Voters (8/1999 and 3/2005) analysis by Stephen D Hambley, Ph.D.

  30. Political Advantages of Fire/EMS Services • Most voting groups see services as absolutely essential and top priority for public expenditures • EMS/Fire levies look small compared to School levies • “Volunteer” staffed department image • Demographic cohorts in growing county could balance voting strength of “anti-taxers” against in-migrating newcomers looking for services comparable to prior suburban home • Current levels of services adequate but need improved to meet growing expectations of public • Services are more or less free – consumers not charged, companies or federal government are charged (limited advantage)

  31. Optimistic Future of Medina County • Medina County is…. • Gaining in population – new people with new ideas and creativity • Ongoing construction of new houses that are long term investments in neighborhoods • Getting older… and wiser • Getting wealthier • County can probably weather the national tax revolt and TELA relatively well because we are growing and are wealthier and have competent “above-average” public agencies Like Lake Wobegone…

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