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CMOS Congress, Halifax, NS June 4 th 2009

The Un derstanding S evere T hunderstorms and A lberta B oundary L ayers E xperiment (UNSTABLE) 2008: Operations Overview. Neil M. Taylor 1 , D. Sills 2 , J. Hanesiak 3 , J. A. Milbrandt 4 , C. D. Smith 5 , G. Strong 6 , S. Skone 7 , P. J. McCarthy 8 , and J. C. Brimelow 3

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CMOS Congress, Halifax, NS June 4 th 2009

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  1. The Understanding Severe Thunderstorms and Alberta Boundary Layers Experiment (UNSTABLE) 2008: Operations Overview Neil M. Taylor1, D. Sills2, J. Hanesiak3, J. A. Milbrandt4, C. D. Smith5, G. Strong6, S. Skone7, P. J. McCarthy8, and J. C. Brimelow3 1Hydrometeorology and Arctic Lab, Environment Canada 2Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section, Environment Canada 3Centre for Earth Observation Science (CEOS), University of Manitoba 4Recherche en Prévision Numérique [RPN] (Numerical Weather Prediction Research Section), Environment Canada 5Climate Research Division, Environment Canada 6Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences,University of Alberta (Adjunct) 7Department of Geomatics Engineering, University of Calgary 8Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre, Environment Canada CMOS Congress, Halifax, NS June 4th 2009

  2. 27-32 > 32 Canada’s Population Density (2006) > 40 deaths and $2.5 B in property damage since 1981 22-26 UNSTABLE Rationale Existing real-time surface observations over a region of the AB foothills Edmonton Saskatoon Calgary Regina Winnipeg

  3. Mixed / Coniferous Forest Low ET Transition Zone – Potential Gradient in Latent Heat Flux Prairie Crops / Grassland High ET Rationale:Ecoclimate Regions and ET

  4. Red Deer Secondary Domain Targeting Storm Evolution 15km Spacing Primary Domain Targeting Storm Initiation 25km Spacing Calgary ExperimentalDesign UNSTABLE Goals • Improve understanding of ABL processes and CI • Improve accuracy and lead time for warnings • Assess utility of high-res NWP to resolve processes and provide guidance • Revise conceptual models for CI and severe wx 3 Main Science Areas • ABL moisture and convergence boundaries • Surface processes (heat flux) • High resolution NWP model forecasts of CI and severe weather

  5. IOD Missions

  6. Special Instrumentation:Fixed / Mobile Surface Observations CRD FOPEX Stations MM3 U of C Foothills Climate Array Stations 2m 1.5m 2 sec. T, Td, P 1 min. T, Td, P, Wind, pcpn 1 min. T, Td, pcpn EC AMMOS (Automated Mobile Meteorological Observation System) EC ATMOS (Automated Transportable Meteorological Observation System) 2 sec. T, Td, P, Wind across gradients and fills in mesonet as necessary 1 min. T, Td, P, Wind, pcpn

  7. Special Instrumentation:Upper Air and Profiling Platforms U of C Profiling Radiometer (H20) and Total Column Water Radiometer U of C GPS IPWV Fixed (2) and Mobile (2) Radiosonde Systems EC Tethersonde System

  8. Special Instrumentation:University of Manitoba MARS Mobile Radiosonde weather station AMR AERI Sodar

  9. Special Instrumentation:Aircraft Instrument Display Microphysics Probes WMI King Air w/ Microphysics and AIMMS-20 Instrument Package (T, P, RH, wind)

  10. Daily 2.5-km and Nested 1.0-km LAM Runs in “Real-Time” 2.5 km GRID 1-km GRID Daily real-time runs Standard and experimental fields Images and data archived

  11. UNSTABLE 2008 Operations • Where possible utilized mobile observations to target storm initiation areas or related processes • These observations integrated with fixed special instrumentation to augment the current operational observation network • Intensive operations were conducted from 9-23 July • 8 IOD missions were conducted + a day of partial operations • 7 research flights • 16 regular field participants + a few guest appearances to help with soundings, etc. and visits from media • 182 soundings (2 hourly on IODs) + test and training flights • Over 10 000 km travelled by mobile teams (!) • Dedicated forecast support provided by PASPC • Daily real-time operational model runs of GEM LAM from RPN

  12. Field Logistics • Headquarters for field coordinator at Olds-Didsbury airport (WMI Operations) • Communications • cell phone for field teams • real-time GPS position via aircards for mobile teams • sounding data transfer via Blackberries for both fixed and mobile soundings • Daily status messages emailed to all field teams + PASPC RSD • Briefings • Evening briefing for day 2 outlook and preliminary operational decisions • 0715 MDT morning briefing to finalize operational decisions, target area(s), and mission selection • Real-time support from PASPC • Day 1 and day 2 forecasts • Hourly mesoanalysis and phone consultation • Blog

  13. Daily Operations Schedule

  14. Operations Calendar July 2008

  15. Current Status • Analysis underway with early results presented today • Short term focus: formalizing / publishing results from 2008 pilot project • Medium term focus: preparations for full-scale project tentatively scheduled for summer 2011 • Flux measurements • Additional instrumented aircraft • More mesonet stations / soundings • Longer observation period • Changes to domain, station placement (?) • Long Term: publications and knowledge transfer to MSC forecast operations

  16. Thank You! In Conclusion…

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