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Another poll ruins Federal Election suspense .

The next day (January 23, 2006) several million Canadian voters cast their votes as follows. . Conservative 36.3%Liberal 30.2%NDP 17.5%Bloc Quebecois 10.5%Green/Other 5.5%Q. How could SES Research, with a tiny sample of 1200 predict with amazing accuracy the voting behavior of several

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Another poll ruins Federal Election suspense .

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    1. Another poll ruins Federal Election suspense. On January 22, 2006 the research firm SES sampled 1,200 Canadians on their voting intentions in the upcoming Federal election. These were the results of the poll: Conservative 36.4% Liberal 30.1% NDP 17.4% Bloc Quebecois 10.6% Green/Other 5.6% The company claimed these estimates accurate to within +/- 3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

    2. The next day (January 23, 2006) several million Canadian voters cast their votes as follows. Conservative 36.3% Liberal 30.2% NDP 17.5% Bloc Quebecois 10.5% Green/Other 5.5% Q. How could SES Research, with a tiny sample of 1200 predict with amazing accuracy the voting behavior of several million Canadiansand ruin much of the suspense on election night? A. With careful sampling techniques!!!

    3. And a more recent poll ruins Provincial Election suspense. On October 8, 2007 the research firm SES sampled 800 Ontarians on their voting intentions in the upcoming Provincial election. The results of the poll are below (actual election results on October 10 in brackets): Conservative 30.5% (31.4%) Liberal 42.6% (42.1%) NDP 17.5% (17.1%) Green/Other 9.4% (8.1%) The company claimed that these estimates were accurate to within +/- 5 percentage points 19 times out of 20.and they were correct!!!

    4. A short and painless history of sampling: Sampling has developed in step with political polling elections allow researchers to test sampling designs. The infamous Literary Digest Presidential poll (a huge sample that was embarrassingly wrong in its Presidential prediction). Gallup: from quota to probability sampling. Probability Sampling: A sample will be representative of the population from which it is drawn if all members have a known (to the researcher), non-zero chance of selection.

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