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Progress Report: Aviation Tourism Demand under Carbon Pricing

Progress Report: Aviation Tourism Demand under Carbon Pricing. Joint Transport and Tourism WG Project TPT 02/2009 Susan Jabs, Department of Resources and Energy 15 September 2009. Background.

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Progress Report: Aviation Tourism Demand under Carbon Pricing

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  1. Progress Report: Aviation Tourism Demand under Carbon Pricing Joint Transport and Tourism WG Project TPT 02/2009 Susan Jabs, Department of Resources and Energy 15 September 2009

  2. Background • Full title: Study of International Visitor Flows and Greenhouse Gas Emissions for a Template to Examine the Impact on APEC Economies of Future Market-based Measures Applying to International Transport • Objectives: • understand aviation flows and GHG emissions • impact on APEC member economies of CO2 pricing for flights • develop a pilot economic model to assist in policy decisions; and • inform APEC policy for international aviation emissions.

  3. Project administration • Project lead by Australia and overseen by Dept Resources, Energy & Tourism and Department of Infrastructure • New Zealand, Thailand and Singapore are co-sponsors • Project focus on sample of APEC member economies including: Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam • Project undertaken by Australian transport economics and policy consultancy GHD Meyrick, part of global infrastructure and policy company GHD Pty Ltd • Core project team: Neil Aplin, Daniel Veryard, Steve Meyrick and Zarmina Nasir

  4. Outline • economic, social and tourism indicators • stakeholder visits • modelling • future directions

  5. Economic and social indicators

  6. Economic and social indicators

  7. Tourism Indicators

  8. Tourism Indicators

  9. Consultation Visits • Purpose: • Gather data and information • Meet stakeholders and contacts for later assistance • Economies visited • New Zealand • Indonesia • Malaysia • Thailand • Australia

  10. Consultation Visits - Information Gained • Variable data availability – as anticipated • Useful background context • Some very useful insights • e.g. international arrivals in Malaysia dominated by Singapore visitors (in numbers)  many are very short-term (shoppers and petrol)  useful for mode share assumptions when data unavailable • Data sources, websites and agencies that we were unaware of

  11. Modelling Approach • Key challenges: • How large is a CO2 price likely to be? • What proportion of air prices is this likely to account for? • How will international tourist arrivals respond? • Will this demand response vary across destinations based linearly on distance between origin and destination? • How will this change in aviation-based tourism affect tourism income, GDP and the welfare of women in APEC economies?

  12. Modelling Approach • Price of CO2 review policy status and forecasts in literature • Distances between economies  Main airport in each economy • Great circle distance from airport to airport • Tourism arrivals  review and ‘interpolate’ available data • Relationship between distance and fuel cost as share of op. costs  review literature on fuel = f(distance) and op. cost = f(distance)  scenario-based with fuel prices able to be chosen by user • Physical relationship between fuel use, distance and CO2

  13. Modelling Aproach cont. • Demand response  review available elasticity estimates • Assume that prices in aviation industry reflect long-term avg. costs • Apply elasticities to % change in price from aviation  yields % change and ‘scenario’ level of tourism arrivals • Apply shares of GDP accounted for by tourism  yields % impact on national incomes of APEC economies  flow-on impacts for women examined

  14. Preliminary Results

  15. Preliminary Results • For realistic carbon prices (less than US$50/Tonne) • GDP cost from reduced international aviation tourism income is less than 1 percentage point (most countries less than 0.5 %pts) • Does not model benefits from avoided climate change that will mitigate this figure to some extent • Demand for long-haul tourism aviation not particularly responsive to prices  visitor numbers not expected to be much reduced • Very high carbon prices (over $US100/Tonne) • More significant tourism number reductions • GDP costs more likely to exceed 1 %pt for some economies

  16. Future Directions • Case studies • Impact of including stopovers and indirect routing • International visitors for economies with significant land-border crossings (e.g. Malaysia-Singapore) • Gender factors in the Indonesian tourism industry • Draft/Final report • Draft circulated early October 2009 for WP comment • Feedback through Australian Dept Resources, Energy & Tourism • Report will include full results, sensitivity analysis and suggestions for model extensions.

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