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Theories of Revolution

Theories of Revolution. Barrington Moore. Population Explosion and Technological Revolution c. 1700 Increase Commercial and Modern Industrial Activity c. 1760 Urbanization c. 1775 Emergence of a Middle Class c. 1789: With Accompanying Ideas of: Liberalism, Nationalism and Democracy

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Theories of Revolution

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  1. Theories of Revolution

  2. Barrington Moore Population Explosion and Technological Revolution c. 1700 Increase Commercial and Modern Industrial Activity c. 1760 Urbanization c. 1775 Emergence of a Middle Class c. 1789: With Accompanying Ideas of: Liberalism, Nationalism and Democracy Emergence of a Working Class (Proletariat) c. 1825: With Accompanying Ideas of Socialism The Classical Historical Model

  3. Causes of Revolution Condition 1 – Economy: Societies become prosperous economically before revolution. Condition 2 – Social Class: People of all social classes feel restless and held down by restrictions in society, religion, the economy or the government. People are hopeful about the future, but they are forced to accept less than they believe they are due. There is a growing bitterness between social classes and the classes closest to one another are the most hostile. Condition 3 – Intellectuals: Scholars and thinkers give up on the way their society operates and transfer their allegiance to a revolutionary group. Condition 4 - The government does not respond to the needs of its society. The government cannot organize its finances correctly and is either going bankrupt or trying to tax heavily and unjustly. Condition 5 – Ruling Class  The leaders of the government and the ruling class begin to doubt themselves.   Some join with the opposition groups. Crane Brinton Anatomy of Revolution

  4. Crane Brinton Stages of Revolution Moderates Come to Power Radicalization of the Revolution – Radicals to Power Crisis Period/Reign of Terror Thermidor – Moderates back in power Subversion of Revolution to Right Wing Authoritarian Figure (Meisel Addendum) Anatomy of Revolution

  5. Chalmers Johnson Categories of Revolutionary Theories Actor-oriented Theories Structural Theories Conjunction Theories Process Theories Revolutionary Change

  6. Chalmers Johnson Multiple Dysfunction + Intransigent Elite + X Factor = Revolution Mitigating Factor: Structural Conduciveness Revolutionary Change

  7. Chalmers Johnson Types of Revolutions Jacquerie – spontaneous uprising of the Masses Millenarian – Elite leading the masses (Unusual of inspirational leader) Jacobin – Elite leading masses (ideological elite) Anarchist – Elites leading masses without direction, ideology or replacement of the social system Coup d’etat – One Elite minority replacing another Militarized mass insurrection - Elites arming the masses but don’t provide direction Revolutionary Change

  8. Karl Marx Hegelian Dialectic for the economic and social development Primitive Communism Slave Society Feudal Society Capitalism Socialism Communism (“The state will wither away”) The Communist Manifesto

  9. Karl Marx • All conflict arises from the class-based struggle to own the means of production. • The Bourgeosie would never give up their privileged place as owners of the means of production. Therefore, a revolution followed by a dictatorship of the proletariat will inevitably occur in the most industrialized societies. The Communist Manifesto

  10. James DeFronzo Sufficient Conditions for Revolution Mass Frustration in Society Dissident Elite Unifying Motivation Severe Political Crisis Permissive or Tolerant World Context Revolutionary Movements

  11. Ted Gurr RD – Relative Deprivation Turmoil – Mass RD Conspiracy – Mass RD + Elite RD Revolutionary War Why Men Rebel

  12. Charles Tilly • Revolutionary Situations • Environment/Structure – • Weak states are more likely to enter these situation • Two or more groups compete for control of the state • State is unwilling or unable to suppress alternative coalitions • 2. Revolutionary Outcomes • Elites defect • Neutralization of the armed forces Europe in Revolutions: 1492-1992

  13. Social Revolutions have both national and international impact. • Structural forces create revolutionary situations. • Social revolutions (a change in both state institutions and social structures) are carried out by purposive action by class-based revolts from below. • Two variables are sufficient to create a Revolutionary Situation (Part I): • A Crisis of State which creates a challenge the state cannot meet leading to elites (and/or the army) becoming divided • Patterns of class dominance determine which group will rise up to exploit the revolutionary situation and lead it. ThedaSkocpol States and Social Revolutions

  14. Revolutionary Outcomes (Part II) are shaped by: • The “obstacles and opportunities “ from Part I • The socioeconomic and international constraints affect how the revolutionary regime will establish itself. • France – liberal capitalism • Russia – socialist dictatorship • China – mass mobilizing party-state ThedaSkocpol States and Social Revolutions

  15. Che Guevara & Gabriel Bonet Partisan Warfare (war against your enemy) + Psychological Warfare (War against your friends) = Equals Revolutionary Warfare Che believes the corruption of capitalism causes the conditions (ie Multiple Dysfunction) for revolution exist everywhere. Therefore in a guerrilla foco, a revolution can be created anywhere. Guerrilla Foco Theory

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