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Theme Address / Opening Remarks G. Chandrashekhar

Indian Merchants’ Chamber Panel discussion on: Monsoon 2014 and Effective Policy Response Mumbai. June 26, 2014. Theme Address / Opening Remarks G. Chandrashekhar Chairman, IMC Committee for Agribusiness, Food Processing and Commodities. Background.

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Theme Address / Opening Remarks G. Chandrashekhar

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  1. Indian Merchants’ Chamber Panel discussion on: Monsoon 2014 and Effective Policy ResponseMumbai. June 26, 2014. Theme Address / Opening Remarks G. Chandrashekhar Chairman, IMC Committee for Agribusiness, Food Processing and Commodities

  2. Background • IMD has forecast below-normal Southwest monsoon 2014 • Southwest monsoon in 2014 for whole country (June-September) likely to be below normal (90-96% of LPA) • Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 93% of LPA with model error of ±4% • Region-wise, season rainfall likely to be 85% of LPA over North-West India, 94% of LPA over Central India, 93% of LPA over South Peninsula and 99% of LPA over North-East India, all with a model error of ± 8 % • Monthly rainfall over the country as whole likely to be 93% of its LPA during July and 96% of LPA during August, both with a model error of ± 9 %.

  3. Looming threat of El Nino • Indications of developing El Nino – dry conditions across South Asia and Southeast Asia • El Nino likely to strike in H2 2014; but timing and intensity uncertain • When El Nino hits Asia, North America usually enjoys good spring crops (grains, oilseeds)

  4. INDIA: what’s in store? • As of June 26, monsoon onset delayed and weak; movement stalled near southeast coast; central and western parts are dry; • June accounts for 15% of total rains; yet, delay has set off alarm bells; crop plantings lagging markedly;

  5. INDIA: What’s in store? • Effect on crop harvests, people, policies, politics . . . . . • Agri: 15% of GDP shared by 53% of workforce; where’s the equity? • Instruments of policy response: Fiscal, Monetary, Trade, Tariff, Administrative; • Any +ve role private enterprise can play?

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