1 / 14

Partisans vs. Independents

Partisans vs. Independents. Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Dem., Rep., or independent [If D or r]: Would you call yourself a strong [D or R]? [If Ind]: Would you say you think of yourself as closer to the Ds or Rs. Partisans vs. Independents. As of 2008: Strong D 19

odessa
Télécharger la présentation

Partisans vs. Independents

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Partisans vs. Independents • Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Dem., Rep., or independent • [If D or r]: Would you call yourself a strong [D or R]? • [If Ind]: Would you say you think of yourself as closer to the Ds or Rs

  2. Partisans vs. Independents • As of 2008: • Strong D 19 • Weak D 15 • Ind D 17 51 D • Ind1111 I • Ind R 12 37 R • Weak R 13 • Strong R 13

  3. Partisanship trends

  4. Partisans vs. Independents • When we lump independent‘leaners’ in w/ partisans, not much change in D vs. R distribution since 1984 • Slight GOP gain • some oscillation • What about those independents?

  5. Partisans vs. Independents Trends in US Party ID; 1952 - 2006

  6. Independents vs. Partisans

  7. Partisans vs. Independents • What do these responses mean? • Party Identification strongest predictor of voting • learned early, social transmition • rarely changes over lifetime • see F&Z figures

  8. Partisans vs. Independents Funnel of Partisanship Causality social background Party attachments campaign events vote Values Groups Time (years & years)

  9. Partisans vs. Independents • Partisans • identify w/ party early • identification stronger over lifetime • partisans more interested in politics • Today, Party ID an even stronger predictor of voting than ever • 90%+ of strong ID vote w/ party • hence, elections somewhat predictable

  10. Partisans vs. Independents • Independents • fastest growing group of voters ‘leaners’ • ID as “independent” but say they are “closer” to one particular party • Leaners may act more ‘partisan’ than weak partisans sometimes • Vote party if forced to chose btwn D and R • Highly interested

  11. Partisans vs. Independents • Independents • but, independents less happy w/ choices than weak or strong partisans • more willing to defect if offered a 3rd choice • Important aspect of dealignment • more independents, who are more volitile

  12. Partisans vs. Independents Does a party represent you reasonably well

  13. Partisans vs. Independents

  14. Partisans vs. Independents • Anderson (+ others) 1980 • 26% of Ind Dems, 14% of Ind, 12% of weak R • Perot 1992 • 23% of Ind Dems, 36% of Ind, 26% of Ind R, 25% of weak Rs • Nader 2000 • 8% of Ind Dems, 6% of Ind, 6% Ind Reps • 0% from weak/strong partisans

More Related