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SCR 1284 and its implications

SCR 1284 and its implications. Colin Rowat, co-ordinator Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq 14 February 2000 Liberation & CLESIP meeting. About CASI. a registered society at the University of Cambridge; narrow humanitarian mandate:

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SCR 1284 and its implications

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  1. SCR 1284 and its implications Colin Rowat, co-ordinator Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq 14 February 2000 Liberation & CLESIP meeting Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

  2. About CASI • a registered society at the University of Cambridge; • narrow humanitarian mandate: • exclusively concerned with the humanitarian consequences of sanctions on Iraq; • does not support Saddam Hussein's regime; • does not take a position on: • military sanctions on Iraq; • US/UK bombing of Iraq. Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

  3. Overview • Context of SCR 1284 • SCR 1284 • Preamble • A. Unmovic • B. Kuwaiti claims • C. Humanitarian improvement within OFF • D. Sanctions’ suspension • Questions • Conclusions Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

  4. Context: search for consensus? • US/UK bombing (12/98): • no UN authorisation, dubious motives • Unscom not allowed back to Iraq • Panel reports commissioned (1/99) • Humanitarian report: Annex II of S/1999/356 (30/3/99) • French proposal (13/1/99) + UK/Dutch proposal • 17/12/99 SCR 1284 passed with 4 abstentions • (intellectual context: these sanctions have failed) Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

  5. SCR 1284: Preamble • commitment to, among other things: • "establishing in the Middle East a zone free from weapons of mass destruction and all missiles for their delivery and the objective of a global ban on chemical weapons” • "sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of Kuwait, Iraq and the neighbouring States” • expressed since SCR 687 (3/4/91) but largely ignored Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

  6. SCR 1284: A. Unmovic • Unmovic = Unscom + disarmament panel recommendations, “as appropriate” • greater independence from Member States (“International Civil Servants subject to Article 100” of UN Charter) • gives Unmovic up to 135 days to return to Iraq • behind schedule (Blix’s appointment) • approving “organizational plan” may be easy • getting into Iraq probably harder Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

  7. SCR 1284: B. Kuwaiti claims • re-iterates Iraqi responsibility to return Kuwaiti and third country property and nationals • Kuwait claims 605 missing persons cases still open • Iraq continues to refuse to co-operate with the “Tripartite Commission” established to address these concerns Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

  8. SCR 1284: C. Humanitarian improvement within OFF • Caveat: “Regardless of the improvements that might be brought about in the implementation of the current humanitarian programme … the magnitude of the humanitarian needs is such that they cannot be met within the context of the parameters set forth in resolution 986 (1995) and … resolution 1153 (1998).” [Humanitarian Panel Report] Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

  9. Selected measures in section C Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

  10. SCR 1284: D. Sanctions’ suspension • “intention” to suspend sanctions if Iraq co-operates “in all respects” for 120 days • “fundamental objective” of the suspension is “improving the humanitarian situation in Iraq” • suspensions “subject to the elaboration of effective financial and other operational measures” • two fold uncertainty: • co-operate “in all respects” on undefined work plan • what sort of suspensions? Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

  11. Questions • will Iraq co-operate? • France, China and Russia abstained • regime more stable than in 1991 • 1284 offers regime few carrots but asks it to trust US • will Iraq be back in the news in 2000? • getting Unmovic in risks tension • U.S. election year: avoid or play tough? • humanitarian consequences? • little promise of more money v. lots already in account Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

  12. Conclusions • humanitarian possibilities real but less than Panel’s • does the FCO have projections for expected humanitarian outcomes of 1284. If not, unclear that 1284 can be regarded as a serious humanitarian initiative. • sanctions’ suspension link to GoI co-operation reaffirms failed 1991 formula • failure to take trust building steps (i.e. can GoI trust US?) likely to hinder implementation Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

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