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Hot Trends: Social Networks, Mobile Marketing and Online Video October 3, 2008

Debra Aho Williamson Senior Analyst eMarketer Inc. Hot Trends: Social Networks, Mobile Marketing and Online Video October 3, 2008. What’s On Tap Today. Internet Ad Spending Trends Social Networking Mobile Marketing Online Video. Internet Ad Spending.

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Hot Trends: Social Networks, Mobile Marketing and Online Video October 3, 2008

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  1. Debra Aho Williamson Senior Analyst eMarketer Inc. Hot Trends: Social Networks, Mobile Marketingand Online Video October 3, 2008 October 3, 2008

  2. What’s On Tap Today • Internet Ad Spending Trends • Social Networking • Mobile Marketing • Online Video October 3, 2008

  3. Internet Ad Spending October 3, 2008

  4. Internet: Approaching 10% of Worldwide Ad Spending October 3, 2008

  5. $25B in US Online Spending in ‘08 US Internet Ad Spending (billions) Source: eMarketer, August 2008 October 3, 2008

  6. Faltering Economy is Impacting US Ad Budgets October 3, 2008

  7. Why Will Online Advertising Thrive in a Difficult Economy? • Online ads are more measurable than other media, making them increasingly appealing to advertisers • The Internet audience is huge, so the simple process of advertising following eyeballs will lift spending • Internet ad prices are rising, thanks to targeting and other techniques, which can push up overall spending October 3, 2008

  8. Advertisers are Committed to Increasing Online Spending October 3, 2008

  9. High penetration Enviable user demographics Elusive “buzz” factor Engaged audience Social Networks, Mobile and Online Video: THE GOOD October 3, 2008

  10. Few standardized ad formats Consumers who are disengaged from ads Questionable ROI Measurement challenges Social Networks, Mobile and Online Video: THE BAD "If a certain kind of spending hasn't been in your [advertising] budget for three straight years, you'll likely cut it when things get tougher.” --Russell Fradin, president, Adify October 3, 2008

  11. And of Course, the Ugly October 3, 2008

  12. Social Networks October 3, 2008

  13. Social Networks: Only One of Many Types of Social Media Source: Universal McCann October 3, 2008

  14. Is This Your Image of Social Networking? October 3, 2008

  15. Social Network Growth Markets: Mideast, Europe and Latin America October 3, 2008

  16. 58% of Worldwide Internet Users Have Created a Profile October 3, 2008

  17. US Usage Is Still Growing Unique Visitors to MySpace and Facebook August 2007-August 2008 (thousands) 75.5 million (up 10% from ‘07) 41 million (up 21% from ‘07) Source: comScore Media Metrix October 3, 2008

  18. US visits to social network sites are down 17% year-over-year vs. August 2007 But Is It a Fad That’s Losing Steam? October 3, 2008

  19. SN Ad Spending Growth Slows in 2009 and Beyond October 3, 2008

  20. US Spending Still in Flux 12/07: $2.7B 12/07: $1.6B +11% +13% +15% +27% +55% Source: eMarketer, 2008 October 3, 2008

  21. News Corp. Acknowledges This “Social networking has gotten a disproportionately lower share of digital advertising budgets. If you compare the amount of traffic and the amount of users we have with the portals, most of those guys have been putting 50%, 60% of their budgets in portals, and 10% of their budgets against social network sites.” -- COO Peter Chernin at Merrill Lynch presentation, Sept. 2008 October 3, 2008

  22. Social Network Ad Experiments Continue • MySpace home page takeovers • Reach 40mm+ people/day • Popular with movie studios • “Dark Knight”: Trailer streamed • 70mm times October 3, 2008

  23. What About HyperTargeting? Banner-ad targeting based on information people provide in their profiles Updated in real-time Half of all ad insertions now include some form of HyperTargeting Major brands: General Motors, Coke, Red Bull, Target Double eCPMs vs. untargeted ads October 3, 2008

  24. Facebook Continues to Experiment With Viral Marketing “Facebook has always tried to push the envelope. And at times that means stretching people and getting them to be comfortable with things they aren’t yet comfortable with. A lot of this is just social norms catching upwith what technology is capable of.” Mark Zuckerberg, New York Times, September 2008 New Ad Features • Comment directly on • an ad • - Become a fan of a • brand without leaving • the page you’re on • - Send a virtual gift to • a friend October 3, 2008

  25. On the Other Hand, Too Much Targeting is Never a Good Thing October 3, 2008

  26. Mobile Marketing October 3, 2008

  27. 2008: The First Year Ad Spending Tracks Ahead of Subscribers Worldwide Mobile Ad Spending and Subscribers 2006-2012 (millions) October 3, 2008

  28. Mobile Usage Facts Over 85% of people 18-49 have a mobile phone(Pew Internet & American Life Project, August 2008) In two years, the average number of text messages we send every month has grown nearly 500% (Nielsen Mobile, September 2008) 39% of teens believe the mobile is the only type of phone they will own(CTIA, Harris Interactive, September 2008) 68% of consumers say the mobile Internet is an important factor in their next mobile phone purchase (AKQA/dotMobi, June 2008) October 3, 2008

  29. “Lack of awareness of the audience size, complexity of the mobile marketing ecosystem and a lack of trust among advertisers in the mobile advertising investment.” Why Mobile Advertising Trails Mobile Subscribership Privacy Intrusiveness October 3, 2008

  30. Do Consumers Accept Mobile Phone Advertising? Source: Nielsen Co., September 2008 October 3, 2008

  31. Or Here? Text Messaging Mobile Display Ads Mobile Search Where is the Money? October 3, 2008

  32. Or Here? Google Android October 3, 2008

  33. Messaging Dominates Ad Spending October 3, 2008

  34. US: 36% of 2008 Mobile Spending October 3, 2008

  35. BMW’s Snow Tire Campaign in Germany • Personalized MMS message to customers, showing image of their car with a recommended tire and price • Option to call dealer directly for appointment • 30% bought tires from dealer during promotion October 3, 2008

  36. Mobile Marketing: A Two-Way Street Save as wallpaper, send to friends Take a photo, send it in a multimedia message Receive a picture of a customized Nike shoe Order personalized shoes directly October 3, 2008

  37. The iPhone is Changing How Consumers Use the Internet October 3, 2008

  38. “The iPhone has changed users’ expectations of what is possible in a mobile device and UI, and the AppStore finally showed the promise of mobile data applications.” --Kleiner Perkins VC firm Mobile Phone Applications: New Advertising Medium iPhone App Store Stats (9/08) • 100 million apps downloaded in 60 days • 700 games • 62 countries October 3, 2008

  39. Online Video October 3, 2008

  40. The Digital Landscape Confounds Many in the Media Biz “We don’t know what’s gonna work. Predicting what the media world is gonna look like in eight years is incredibly daunting. I defy anybody to do that.” -Jeff Zucker, president-CEO, NBC Universal, September 2008 October 3, 2008

  41. Consumers Love Online Video October 3, 2008

  42. Half of US Population Watches Online US Online Video Users, 2006-2012 (% of population) Source: eMarketer, February 2008 October 3, 2008

  43. 71% of US Internet users watch online videos at least once a week % respondents, Mar. 2008 Source: Universal McCann, April 2008 October 3, 2008

  44. Types of video content people watch monthly: short,short, short Full TV shows = 27% % total US video viewers, Feb. 2008 Source: eMarketer, February 2008 October 3, 2008

  45. Websites Love Video, Too • Average CPMs: $43 for video ads; $15 for display ads (Bain & Co. for the Interactive Advertising Bureau) • High sell-through rate: 90% for premium content creators (TV networks, etc.); 50% for content aggregators (YuMe and Collins Stewart LLC) October 3, 2008

  46. 9.8% 6.8% 4.7% 3.4% 2.6% 2.0% 1.5% Video Ads: 2.6% of Online Spend in 2009 US Online Video Ad Spending (millions and % of Internet total) “Video is the growth format on the Internet.” -- David Hallerman, eMarketer Source: eMarketer, September 2008 October 3, 2008

  47. But Video Won’t Challenge Search or Display -- Yet US Online Ad Spending, by Format (billions) 2008 & 2013 Source: eMarketer, August 2008 October 3, 2008

  48. Factors supporting a (future) boom in online video spending • Broadband is reaching a “critical mass” • TV efficiency is declining yet still very expensive • Advertisers can replicate the sight, sound, motion – and emotion – of television, but with better measurability and targetability • There are vast opportunities for communication among consumers (aka, viral) October 3, 2008

  49. But There Are Significant Hurdles Can consumer- generated video be monetized? Will consumers skip over ads? What ad formats work best? October 3, 2008

  50. Pre-roll (also, mid-roll or post-roll) (the ad runs in-stream with video content) Overlays (aka, bugs or tickers) (the ad runs at bottom of video, not interrupting content) Skins (aka, player skins) (the ad runs surrounding video content window) In-page banners (the ad runs in a box, not connected to video content) Four flavors of video ads October 3, 2008

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