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Research Methods

Research Methods. A Study shows a link between Chewing Gum and Lung Cancer. Does chewing gum cause cancer? If not, why does the correlation exist?.

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Research Methods

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  1. Research Methods

  2. A Study shows a link between Chewing Gum and Lung Cancer. Does chewing gum cause cancer? If not, why does the correlation exist? Many smokers chew gum to mask the smell of smoke on their breath. Smoking is a direct CAUSE of lung cancer, and therefore the LINK between chewing gum and lung cancer.

  3. An argument for global warming.

  4. Kodak Stock Price 1987 2013 Why is driver death rate decreasing??

  5. Nation X = TV's per capita Y = life exp. (years) Angola 1/200 44 Australia 1/2 76.5 Cambodia 1/177 49.5 Canada 1/1.7 76.5 China 1/15 70 Haiti 1/234 53.5 Japan 1/1.8 79 Russia 1/3.2 69 UK 1/3 76 USA 1/1.3 75.5 Yemen 1/38 50

  6. With a 300% increase this year, The “Church of Mickey Mouse” is the fastest growing church in the world. Its members have increased from 1 to 3. Communities with the largest crime rates also have the greatest number of mosques. (CITIES have the greatest crime rates because they have the greatest number of people!!!

  7. Education and earning potential. 1. 9th grade $16,322 2. Some high school $19,095 3. High school grad $25,081 4. Some college(no degree) $29,903 5. Associate's degree $31,358 6. Bachelor's degree $41,361 7. Master's degree $50,704 8. Professional degree $76,659 9. PhD $71,541

  8. Education and earning potential. X-axis Y-axis 1. 9th grade $16,322 2. Some high school $19,095 3. High school grad $25,081 4. Some college(no degree) $29,903 5. Associate's degree $31,358 6. Bachelor's degree $41,361 7. Master's degree $50,704 8. Professional degree $76,659 9. PhD $71,541

  9. Education and earning potential. 1. 9th grade $16,322 2. Some high school $19,095 3. High school grad $25,081 4. Some college(no degree) $29,903 5. Associate's degree $31,358 6. Bachelor's degree $41,361 7. Master's degree $50,704 8. Professional degree $76,659 9. PhD $71,541

  10. X = driving credit score Y = average incurred loss per policy (1-worst 10%, 2-next lowest 10%, … , 10-best 10%) 1 $918 2 $846 3 $791 4 $707 5 $703 6 $681 7 $631 8 $584 9 $568 10 $558

  11. Automobile Deaths Age

  12. State X = avg. spending per student (in $) Y = mean SAT Math score AL 5,885 554 AR 5,278 550 FL 6,170 499 GA 6,929 489 LA 6,037 562 MS 5,175 551 NC 6,346 499 SC 6,631 488 TN 5,687 553 Graph this to determine if a correlation exists.

  13. Team X = payroll (millions of $) Y = wins in 2005 regular season NYY 208.3 95 BOS 123.5 95 NYM 101.3 83 LAA 97.7 95 PHI 95.5 88 STL 92.1 100 SF 90.1 75 SEA 87.7 69 CHC 87.0 79 ATL 86.5 90 LAD 83.0 71 HOU 76.8 89 CHW 75.2 99 BAL 73.9 74 DET 69.1 71 SD 63.3 82 AZ 62.3 77 CIN 61.9 73 FL 60.4 83 MIN 56.2 83 TEX 55.8 79 OAK 55.4 88 WAS 48.6 81 COL 48.2 67 TOR 45.7 80 CLE 41.5 93 MIL 39.9 81 PIT 38.1 67 KC 36.9 56 TB 29.7 67

  14. Cleveland - best value for the money Seattle - worst value for the money (or Yankees??) How much $$ per win? Yankess = $2.18 million Tampa Bay = $440,000 Phila = $1.08 million

  15. # wins TEAM $$$ WINS NYY 208.3 95 BOS 123.5 95 NYM 101.3 83 LAA 97.7 95 PHI 95.5 88 STL 92.1 100 SF 90.1 75 SEA 87.7 69 CHC 87.0 79 ATL 86.5 90 LAD 83.0 71 HOU 76.8 89 CHW 75.2 99 BAL 73.9 74 DET 69.1 71 SD 63.3 82 AZ 62.3 77 CIN 61.9 73 FL 60.4 83 MIN 56.2 83 TEX 55.8 79 OAK 55.4 88 WAS 48.6 81 COL 48.2 67 TOR 45.7 80 CLE 41.5 93 MIL 39.9 81 PIT 38.1 67 KC 36.9 56 TB 29.7 67 Payroll $$ Is there a correlation? _____ What kind? _________ Who has the best GM in the league? _____________ Who is the worst GM in the league? ______________

  16. Size of sample is important for accuracy… More data = better results!

  17. Correlation; describes the degree of relatedness between two variables, but NOT necessarily causation!! • Positive correlation; both variables move in the same direction (both up OR both down) Ex. IQ and test scores Attendance and grades School cell phone use and detentions

  18. Negative correlation; variables move in opposite directions. Ex. Brushing teeth and number of cavities. Life expectancy and smoking.

  19. Children raised in homes with more appliances tend to perform better in school. Therefore, appliances improve intelligence. Correlation does not imply causation

  20. There is a correlation between watching violence on TV and violence in adolescence. Can you conclude that violence on TV causes violent kids? NO. It could be a direct result of a third factor, such as growing up in a violent home.

  21. …but it can be used to make predictions. = Lifetime earning potential education

  22. Height (inches) Head Size (inches)

  23. Gathering Data: • Experiments • Observations • Case Studies • Surveys • Longitudinal Studies • Cross-cultural studies

  24. Samples: • Small group of the tested population • Must be representative of the larger population • To avoid bias… • Random Sample; individuals picked purely by chance (every individual has an equal chance of being selected) • Stratified Sample; individuals deliberately chosen from various sub-groups of the population. Ethnicity, age, sex, political/religious affiliation, etc

  25. Experiments • Control the situation, environment • Decrease the influence of outside factors • Hypothesis; educated guess…establish the foundation of the experiment • Independent variable; the factor the experimenter changes to see its effect • Dependent variable; the factor that is measured to see how it was affected by the independent variable

  26. A + B + C + D = X Soil Water Light Growth Temperature Hypothesis: If I allow administer more Light, then the plant will grow faster. Independent variable: Dependent variable: Light (manipulated by researcher) Growth (“result” of independent variable) Constant: Temperature, water, Soil Control Group: 12 hours of light Experimental Group: 24 hours of light

  27. Controlled experiment: Hypothesis: Red light helps plants grow better than blue light Independent variable: Color of light 12 hrs/day 12 hrs/day Dependent variable: Height of plant liter of water/day degrees Celcius soil Every factor other than the independent variable should remain CONSTANT!

  28. Experimental group: gets the independent variable Control group: gets treated exactly the same as the experimental group EXCEPT for the independent variable Experimental results must be replicable. Results published in a journal then reviewed and critiqued by peers. If results can be replicated and the methods and conclusions accepted by the scientific community the results are accepted as either supporting or not supporting the hypothesis. You cannot really PROVE things in science!

  29. If you increase the number of cigarettes you smoke, then you will increase your risk for lung cancer. Independent : ________________________________________________ Dependent: __________________________________________________ If you increase the amount of blood in the water, then you will increase the number of sharks in the area. Independent : ________________________________________________ Dependent: __________________________________________________ If you increase the amount of milk you drink, then you will increase the strength of your bones. Independent : ________________________________________________ Dependent: __________________________________________________ If you increase the number of hours you spend in practice, then you will increase the number of free throw shots you will make. Independent : ________________________________________________ Dependent: __________________________________________________

  30. One trap to avoid in research: Self-fulfilling prophecy The researcher finds what they expect to find and ignore or overlook other important facts, data, etc. The researcher may do this unknowingly, which is why we publish results Does a researcher’s beliefs, attitudes, or feelings affect the way he or she will interpret the results of an experiment? If I work for an oil company or a utility company that uses coal, will I be as likely to believe in global warming, or will I only look at data that support what I already believe? (“cherry picking” the data)

  31. Researcher Glenn Begley was trying to replicate a study of tumor growth in animals, based off of a scientific paper written by an unnamed researcher (Couzin-Frankel, 2013, p. 68). But for some reason, Begley could not seem to get the same outcome that the researcher did (Couzin-Frankel, 2013, p. 68). So in 2011, Begley met with the unnamed researcher and described his dilemma, to try and understand what he was doing wrong (Couzin-Frankel, 2013, p.68). The researcher explained that out of the 12 trials conducted in the experiment, only ONE was successful, and that was the trial that was published (Couzin-Frankel, 2013, p. 68). In this case, the unnamed researcher’s use of cherry picking in the presentation of their results misled other researchers to believe that their study was entirely successful when it in fact was not. Not only was the researcher’s conduct unethical, but it was also a blatant misrepresentation of the progress being made in that particular branch of cancer research. It is particularly damaging because the public trusts that sources are reliable, and these false reporting's contribute to myths and rumors.

  32. My political candidate gives 10% of his income to the needy, goes to church every Sunday, and volunteers one day a week at a homeless shelter.  Therefore, he is honest and morally straight. Explanation: What information was left out of the example is that this same candidate gives 10% of his income to needy prostitutes in exchange for services, goes to the bar every Sunday after church (and sometimes before), and only works at the homeless shelter to get clients for his drug dealing business.

  33. 4 Steps to Self-Fulfilling Prophecy • Perceiver has expectations about how target will behave • 2. Perceiver then behaves in a way that is likely to elicit the expected target behavior • 3. Target indeed behaves in a way that confirms perceiver�s expectations • 4. Perceiver (Objective Perceiver) sees predicted behavior The Placebo effect

  34. You expect your new roommate to be shy so you don’t speak much to him after he moves in, and he therefore does seem shy • A coach expects his freshmen to be uncoordinated and unskilled so he does not play them often, and when he does they are rusty and do not perform well • Your professor expects you to do well and she spends extra time with you preparing for the exam, so you get an A

  35. Solution: The Double-Blind Study vs

  36. Single-blind study: the test subjects are “blind”, but the researcher knows the Coke and Pepsi cups and could influence the results with body language, voice inflection, eye movements, etc. (intentional or not) Double-blind study: both the test subjects and the researcher are “blind”. If neither know the products in the cups, no improper influence could affect the results.

  37. 2. Naturalistic Observation: • To understand how the subjects behave naturally • Avoid disturbing or interacting with the subjects

  38. 3. Case Studies: • Intensive investigation of an individual or group • Usually focus on a particular problem or experience • Combine long-term observations (psychological tests, behavior reports, self-reports, etc) • Lacks a control group for comparison

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