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Simulating impacts of future climate on rice and human in CNX, KKC Thailand

Simulating impacts of future climate on rice and human in CNX, KKC Thailand. Attachai Jintrawet Multiple Cropping Center, Chiang Mai Univ., Chiang Mai. & Kim C. Nguyen, Atmospheric Res. Center, CSIRO.

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Simulating impacts of future climate on rice and human in CNX, KKC Thailand

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  1. Simulating impacts of future climate on rice and human in CNX, KKC Thailand Attachai Jintrawet Multiple Cropping Center, Chiang Mai Univ., Chiang Mai. & Kim C. Nguyen, Atmospheric Res. Center, CSIRO. @ Sasin Graduate School of Management, Chulalongkorn University, Sasapatasala Building, room 521.

  2. Issues Rice production systems and climate changes Study methods Results Summary

  3. Global carbon cycle and stocks Thailand carries 1 million ha of riceland

  4. Rice yield (kg ha-1) and population 5,000 CNX = 1.6 Millions 2,500 Thailand: 65 Millions KK = 1.8 Millions 0 1974 84 94 00 OAE, 1975-2001

  5. Study tools GFDL-MK3 climate model Predicted Regional GCM scenario weather data KK, CM 1985-1999 2006-2025 Historical weather data KK, CM 1985-99 VS + NSPT glutinous rice RD23 non-glutinous rice KK using Roi Et soil CM using San Sai soil CERES-Rice

  6. Scenario 1: 1985-1999 Irrigation Rainfed Irrigated RD23 RD23 Rice variety NSPT NSPT Weather data WTH MK3 MK3 WTH MK3 WTH MK3 WTH Urea WTH Green manure Scenario 1 = 1xCO2 b/w 1985-1999 Using WTH & MK3 1985 1999 2045 2035 2055 2064 2006 2025 Scenario 2 = 2xCO2 b/w 2006-2025 UsingMK3

  7. Scenario 2: 2006-2025 Irrigation Rainfed Irrigated Rice variety RD23 RD23 NSPT NSPT Weather data MK3 MK3 MK3 MK3 Urea 0, 37.5, 75 kg ha-1 0.5, 2, 4 Mg ha-1 Total of 12 management rice production strategies 1985 1999 2045 2035 2055 2064 2006 2025 Scenario 2 = 2xCO2 b/w2006-2025 usingMK3

  8. Scenario 1 between 1985-1999 Rice yield (Mg ha-1) Provinces Water Rice variety MK3 OAE WTH NSPT KKC Rainfed 2.20 0.89 1.67 RD 23 . 2.63 1.00 1.67 NSPT Irrigated 2.58 2.48 1.67 RD 23 3.08 3.26 1.67 RMSE 1.00 1.03 CNX NSPT Rainfed 3.54 2.64 3.33 RD 23 4.20 2.98 3.33 NSPT 4.03 3.98 3.33 Irrigated 4.77 5.16 3.33 RD 23 RMSE 0.91 1.04

  9. Rainfall between 1980-2030 2 , 500 CNX 2 , 000 1 , 500 1 , 000 KKC 500 0 ๒๕๒๓ 1980 ๒๕๓๓ 1990 ๒๕๔๓ 2000 ๒๕๕๓ 2010 ๒๕๖๓ 2020 ๒๕๗๓ 2030

  10. Scenario 2 b/w 2006-2024 Rice yield at KKC (Mg ha-1) Irrigated Rainfed Urea (kg ha-1) Urea (kg ha-1) Rice var GM (kg ha-1) 0 37.5 75 0 37.5 75 NSPT 0.78 1.50 1.99 1.71 2.69 3.04 6000 500 0.74 1.48 1.97 1.54 2.53 2.89 RD23 0.90 1.76 2.35 2.27 3.58 4.01 6000 500 0.84 1.73 2.33 1.96 3.31 3.76

  11. Scenario 2 b/w 2006-2024 Rice yield at CNX (Mg ha-1) Irrigated Rainfed Urea (kg ha-1) Urea (kg ha-1) Rice var GM (kg ha-1) 0 37.5 75 0 37.5 75 NSPT 5.60 5.73 5.94 7.74 7.86 8.04 6000 500 2.70 3.43 4.07 3.83 4.37 4.87 RD23 6.56 6.67 6.89 9.88 10.00 10.21 6000 500 3.20 4.24 5.09 1.96 5.78 6.43

  12. Impacts of the changes • At CNX, simulated rice yields appeared to be higher than the current level. • At KKC, simulated rice yields appeared to be lower than the current level. • Flooding and soil erosion

  13. Impacts of high rainfall • Too much moisture in harvested products, use more energy to dry • More leaching • Less efficiency of chemical fertilizer

  14. Summary • It is possible to use a process-oriented rice model to simulate the production under various climatic, edaphic, and management conditions • Slight impact on rice production during the next 20 years, except much higher rainfall volume in CNX areas. • Need to develop warning systems.

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