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Fortis Bank Financial Symposium

UNICREDITO ITALIANO: CREATING VALUE THROUGH LONG TERM RETIREMENT SERVICES. Gianluca Benatti Head of Retail Investment Services. Fortis Bank Financial Symposium. Amsterdam, March 21 st 2002. AGENDA. Group highlights Life/pension is the key asset-gathering market in the next five years

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Fortis Bank Financial Symposium

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  1. UNICREDITO ITALIANO: CREATING VALUE THROUGH LONG TERM RETIREMENT SERVICES Gianluca Benatti Head of Retail Investment Services Fortis Bank Financial Symposium Amsterdam, March 21st 2002

  2. AGENDA • Group highlights • Life/pension is the key asset-gathering market in the next five years • Key success factors for a bank in this business • Why Unicredito Italiano is bound to be among the leaders of the pack

  3. UCI: A EUROPEAN LEADER IN DISTRIBUTION, A GLOBAL PLAYER IN ASSET MANAGEMENT WITH OUTSTANDING PROFITABILITY AND EFFICIENCY 2001 KEY FIGURES MKT CAP. Euro 23.5 bn (1) NET INCOME Euro 1,454 mln C/I RATIO 52.7% PRE-TAX ROE 32.9% ROE 18.0% BRANCH NETWORK 3,998 (1) As of 12.3.2002

  4. Italian Banks Foreign Banks Italian Banking Wholesale Banking New Initiatives New Europe Banking THE DIVISIONAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTS OUR GROUP STRATEGY FOCUSED ON SPECIALISATION OF PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION • Diversified investments and structure to exploit different options for growth and to diversify business portfolio • Italian Banking still core business, but other divisions’ importance growing at a fast pace • Brilliant results from recent investments, reinforcing confidence on the quality of the strategy • Different business models for production and distribution

  5. DESPITE A DETERIORATED MARKET ENVIRONMENT UCI SHOWS GOOD REVENUE AND INCOME GROWTH TOTAL REVENUES OPERATING INCOME NET INCOME +5.3% (Euro mln) (Euro mln) (Euro mln) 1,695(3) +7.2% 1,611(2) 9,989 +4.2% 9,318 1,454 +3.5% 1,395 4,726 4,566 2001 2000 2001 2001 2000 2000 COST/INCOME RATIO ROE(1) 52.7% 22.2%(2) 51.0% 21.0%(3) 20.8%(4) 18.0% Structural Cost/Income 47.8% 19.2%(5) 47.7% 2001 2000 2001 2000 (1) Calculated on end of period net equity (2) Adding back goodwill amortisation related to the Group and 98-’99 provisions related to Ciampi Law (3) Adding back goodwill amortisation related to the Group (4) Adding back ’98-’99 provisions related to Ciampi Law (5) Calculated on Group net income of Euro 1395 mln

  6. WE WERE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION FROM THE WEALTH MANAGEMENT AND ASSET MANAGEMENT BUSINESS ... REVENUE COMPOSITION BY BUSINESS AREA (Net of Corporate Centre negative contribution) 2000 2001 13.7% 14.6% 2.7% 4.7% 4.8% 5.8% 60.2% 78.8% 59.8% 74.8% 19.0% 14.6% UBM + TL Pioneer New Europe Italian Banking- Wealth Management Italian Banking- Other

  7. ... THANKS TO OUR ABILITY TO PARTIALLY COUNTERBALANCE THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL MARKETS ON COMMISSIONS WITH THE DISTRIBUTION OF VALUE ADDED PRODUCTS (Euro mln) • Asset management commissions stable despite negative market environment NET COMMISSIONS 2000* % ch. 2001 Asset management 1,789 1,803 +0.8 • Excellent impact of capital guaranteed products on commissions from segregated accounts and insurance products Mutual funds 1,447 1,324 -8.5 Segregated accounts 186 253 +36.0 Insurance products 156 226 +44.9 • Commissions from securities in custody suffered the lower turnover of customers’ portfolios Securities in custody 422 334 -20.8 Other services, of which: 1,128 1.154 +2.3 Loans granted & received 456 497 +9.0 • Positive contribution from other services (mainly commissions from loans granted and from payment services) Cash management services 250 263 +5.2 Total 3,339 3,291 -1.4 * consistent with new Bank of Italy criteria for breakdown of commissions

  8. OUR EXCELLENT COMMERCIAL RESULTS ALLOWED UCI GROUP TO RANK FIRST IN THE SALES OF ALL HIGH VALUE-ADDED PRODUCTS IN ITALY MUTUAL FUNDS CAPITAL GUARANTEED PRODUCTS: EURO 7.46 Bn NET INFLOWS IN 2001*, MORE THAN EURO 8.7 Bn FROM LAUNCH TO FEB. ‘02 (Euro mln) Ch. on 2000 2001 sales Dec 01 mkt sh. (Euro bn) Tot: 3,988 Net inflows 1,965 13.56 +23 bp 4 386 UNIT LINKED 868 3 Rank in Italy Tot: 1,989 (Euro mln) % Ch. on 00 2001 sales Premium written Tot: 1,273 16 3,889 +43 1st 2 Tot: 1,018 731 2,734 • Confirmed leadership in market shares on Unit Linked (98% of the total new production of insurance premiums): • 34.5% (+11 pp y/y) in Bancassurance only • 26.7% (+ 9.7 pp y/y) on total market 146 Tot: 465 1 165 632 1,242 703 465 386 0 1Q’01 2Q’01 3Q’01 4Q’01 Jan-Feb. 2002 Fund, Equity & Index Linked Notes SegregatedAccounts Unit Linked (UNISTAR) * Net of Euro 91 mln. inflow from a joint BANK PEKAO / TRADINGLAB Capital Protected Note issued in October

  9. AGENDA • Group highlights • Life/pension is the key asset-gathering market in the next five years • Key success factors for a bank in this business • Why Unicredito Italiano is bound to be among the leaders of the pack

  10. THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE MUCH MORE RESILIENT…. • A shrinking “social parachute”: declining birth rate, shorter working life, longer life expectancy • A shrinking “private parachute”: decreasing families’ size, improved mobility and lower children-parents dependency (THE CATHOLIC FAMILY CONCEPT IS CHALLENGED) • A changing approach to golden age: longer, healthier, wealthier • THESE ARE LONG TERM TRENDS OF CHANGE, RELATIVELY INDEPENDENT OF FINANCIAL MARKET CYCLES

  11. IN THE LAST DECADE PERSPECTIVE PENSION BURDEN ON PUBLIC FINANCES FORCED ITALY TO REDUCE HER GENEROSITY EMPLOYEES 80 • Current Pillar II schemes are far from succeeding in closing the gap between last pay and retirement income in the case of middle and high-income individuals 70 60 50 RETIREMENT GAP % 40 30 20 10 AGE OF RETIREMENT 0 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 AVERAGE YEARLY INCOME 30.000 Euro 60.000 Euro 100.000 Euro SELF-EMPLOYED WORKERS 80 70 • Self-employed workers more penalised than employees 60 50 RETIREMENT GAP % 40 30 20 10 AGE OF RETIREMENT 0 57 58 59 60 61 65 62 63 64 Source: Pioneer Global Asset Management Research Unit

  12. In the 50’s, households’ financial needs had already been satisfied at the age of 55, whereas today they are all unmet Today financial assets at the threshold of the golden age have to be much higher than before and are “the scarce resource” DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS WILL AFFECT THE TRANSFER OF WEALTH AMONG GENERATIONS 50’S retirement 18 22 40 53 Head of the family’s age child starts working and becomes independent starts working first child retirement Today Head of the family’s age 25 33 58 60 starts working child starts working and becomes independent first child

  13. A LONGER LIFE DURATION BRINGS IN NEW KIND OF FEARS “WHAT ARE THE LANDMARKS OF THE GOLDEN AGE”? % OF RESPONDENTS; MULTIPLE ANSWERS ADMITTED

  14. SO FAR PENSION PRODUCTS HAVE NOT FULLY BENEFITED FROM THE STRONG GROWTH OF TOTAL FINANCIAL ASSETS IN ITALY 1996 Households’ total financial assets: Euro 1,878 bn 2000 Households’ total financial assets: Euro 2,602 bn Other: 2% Other: 3% Deposits: 25% Life/Pensions: 11% Deposits: 30% Life/Pensions: 10% Equities: 22% Bonds: 30% Mutual Funds: 5% Equities: 25% Bonds: 19% Mutual Funds: 18% CAGR 1996-2000 +8.5% Source: Bank of Italy • Italian savings market witnessed an unprecedented growth in the past 4 years (CAGR 8.5%). Households progressively reduced their risk aversion, as shown by the rise of the portion of assets diverted to mutual funds and shares • Pension funds could scarcely benefit from this growth, mainly due to legal uncertainties and lack of products

  15. MUTUAL FUNDS INSTEAD OF PENSION FUNDS: ITALY VERSUS THE NETHERLANDS Source: Pioneer Global Asset Management Research Unit

  16. BUT PENSIONS WILL BECOME ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING INDUSTRIES IN ITALY IN THE NEXT DECADES Pension fund industry set to grow strongly in the next 20 years Euro bn 2,500 CAGR 2001-2020 2,000 +23.5% 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 • We estimate that the Italian pension fund market will total Euro 2,000 bns in 2020. This would imply a 2001-2020 CAGR of 23.5% for the pension fund industry • This will be due to the diversion of a larger portion of savings to pension funds and life insurance products and to a partial switch of assets from other investment categories Source: Pioneer Global Asset Management Research Unit

  17. AGENDA • Group highlights • Life/pension is the key asset-gathering market in the next five years • Key success factors for a bank in this business • Why Unicredito Italiano is bound to be among the leaders of the pack

  18. THE URGE FOR A PENSION NEED HAS ALREADY BEEN CREATED, BUT HARDLY IT WILL BE TRANSFORMED INTO SHAREHOLDERS’ VALUE • Trust: why should banks’ salespeople be suddenly trusted an insurance-related culture? • Culture: why should Italian customers suddenly “invest long term” and not invest to get short term gains? • Matching: will longer term products produce the same revenues as current shorter term portfolios? • PAYG scheme simulations widely available on and off-line, through banks, financial consultants, agents • Press campaigns always on • TAKE OFF INDEPENDENT OF FURTHER REFORMS ISSUES FOR BANKS

  19. IT REQUIRES ENHANCED SALE SKILLS: “RETIREMENT” MEANS “PROTECTION” AND IMPLIES MANY TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS December 2000 DOXA survey on retirement; % of interviewees declaring interest in the item Saving for retirement means Retirement Services buy a house integrate social security benefits get medical assistance inheritance to children children’s education unforeseen 84% • They go well beyond selling single premium financial Unit Linked • It means offering a complex advice which is not normally recognised to banks’ salesforce 87% 78% 69% 83% 93% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

  20. IT REQUIRES EVEN MORE TRUST FROM THE CLIENT: TO GET THE SOFT AND DELICATE INFO NECESSARY TO IDENTIFY THE NEED Sales Reps will have to test and quantify the most common constraint to the take off of private pensions: the intra-generation wealth transfer Client Status Reasons NOT to be investing for one’s own retirement Expected inheritance weakens the perception of Social Security gap Child Expected support from children (in return for inheritance) weakens the perception of Social Security and Assistance gap Parent • Some events in life are bound to break this virtuous cycle: • mobility due to education • mobility due to job search • consumption (non durable) in the old age • etc

  21. AGENDA • Group highlights • Life/pension is the key asset-gathering market in the next five years • Key success factors for a bank in this business • Why Unicredito Italiano is bound to be among the leaders of the pack

  22. THIS IS A BUSINESS OF MANAGING RISKS AFFECTING HOUSEHOLDS’ BALANCE SHEET AND INCOME STATEMENT Longevity risk • Coping with the unavoidable heavy Health care ticket of the old age w/o eating into the living standard (=the pension revenues) • Preserving stocks FOR heirs and protecting them FROM conversion into a supplementary annuity • Coping with the unforeseen w/o eating into the household’s assets and revenues • Coping with the odd of NOT achieving a consumption/accumulation target, due to market vagaries Catastrophic risk Financial risk

  23. LEVERAGING OUR EXCELLENT GROUP MANUFACTURERS WE ARE OVERHAULING THE WHOLE PROCESS TO GAIN TRUST FROM CLIENTS IN THE OTHER TWO AREAS OF HOUSEHOLDS’ RISK MANAGEMENT SELLING PROCESS REDESIGN BRAND NEW PFP SOFTWARE DEDICATED COMMUNICATION NEW PENSION PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION MODEL BRAND NEW TRAINING TOOLS BRAND NEW PRODUCTS

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