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N, P and K for 2014: $300 Rent, $4 Corn and USEPA

N, P and K for 2014: $300 Rent, $4 Corn and USEPA. John Grove and Edwin Ritchey Plant and Soil Sciences. Supply Nitrogen; adequate, plentiful natural gas, more capacity being built (net export?) Phosphate; adequate, industry consolidation (Mosaic, South America, supply control)

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N, P and K for 2014: $300 Rent, $4 Corn and USEPA

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  1. N, P and K for 2014:$300 Rent, $4 Corn and USEPA John Grove and Edwin Ritchey Plant and Soil Sciences

  2. Supply Nitrogen; adequate, plentiful natural gas, more capacity being built (net export?) Phosphate; adequate, industry consolidation (Mosaic, South America, supply control) Potash; always adequate, but Russian cartel broken (for now), Urakali versus Belaruskali (lost mines, CEO-house arrest), 75 start-ups “on hold”, including BHP’s $14 billion Jansen/Canada mine, Belaruskali just announced $300/ton fob 2014 Nutrient Management Context Various industry sources; Wall Street J.

  3. Demand Driven by nutrient removal Driven by price? 2014 Nutrient Management Context

  4. Grain Crop Nutrient Removal Murdock and Ritchey, 2013, AGR-1

  5. Demand Driven by nutrient removal Driven by price? Nutrient removal A tale of two years 2014 Nutrient Management Context

  6. Nutrient Removal – Corn – 2012 Initial STP = 50, STK = 250 AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P2O5 & 30 lb K20 2012 Ky corn yield - 68 bu/A Removal: 48, 27, and 24 lb N, P2O5, K2O/A Soil test again or assume a 1 lb/A change in soil test with each 5 lb addition-removal/A End of 2012: estimated STP = 51, STK=251 AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P2O5 & 30 lb K20 for 2013 Ritchey, 2013

  7. Nutrient Removal – Corn – 2013 Initial STP = 50, STK = 250 AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P2O5 & 30 lb K20 2013 Ky corn yield - 173 bu/A Removal: 121, 69, and 61 lb N, P2O5, K2O/A Soil test again or assume a 1 lb/A change in soil test with each 5 lb addition-removal/A End of 2013: estimated STP = 42, STK=244 AGR-1 recommends 40 lb P2O5 & 30 lb K20 for 2014 Ritchey, 2013

  8. Nutrient Removal – Irrigated Corn Initial STP = 50, STK = 250 AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P2O5 & 30 lb K20 Irrigated corn yield - 250 bu/A Removal: 175, 100, and 88 lb N, P2O5, K2O/A Soil test again or assume a 1 lb/A change in soil test with each 5 lb addition-removal/A End of year: estimated STP = 36, STK=238 AGR-1 recommends 60 lb P2O5 & 40 lb K20 for next year Ritchey, 2013

  9. Soil Sample to Verify!? Year 1 = 1990 Year 23 = 2012 Sikora, 2013

  10. 9971 samples averaging 69 lb STP/A Sikora, 2013

  11. 9971 samples averaging 256 lb STK/A Sikora, 2013

  12. The lb P2O5/A required to change soil test P by 1 lb/A – as related to the initial soil test P level – after an 8 week lab incubation. Thom and Dollarhide, 1987

  13. Price – should be influenced by supply, demand and fertilizer/crop price ratio 2014 Nutrient Management Context

  14. DTN, 2013

  15. Buying has been off. Waiting for further price Decline. DTN, 2013

  16. Price – should be influenced by supply, demand and fertilizer/crop price ratio, but the industry knows you had high removal. Nitrogen the N industry monitors corn prices and pricing; seek to set price of N/lb at about 1/10 the price of corn/bu delivery timing and storage capacity can influence N pricing, especially anhydrous Near future: expect a bit more supply driven pricing, especially N and P (K ??) 2014 Nutrient Management Context

  17. Nutrient Budget Consequences 2012-13Sharpen Your Pencil Purdue Coop. Extn. 2012-13

  18. Follow recommendations For N: AGR-1 gives a range in recommended rates for the situation. Move to the high end of the range when the fertilizer N/grain price ratio is favorable (low). For lime, P and K: soil test based approach is best For S and the micronutrients (Zn, B, Mn): know your likely need. Verify with soil test and plant tissue analysis. 2014 Nutrient Recommendations

  19. Adjust Corn N Rate According To The Economic Season? Murdock and Ritchey, 2013, AGR-1

  20. The “Right” Recommendation Competing philosophies of recommendation: SLAN, Maintenance, Soil Nutrient Balance UK: Sufficient Level of Available Nutrients (SLAN) Crop response based/fertilize for the crop; Buildup (at low test levels); Maintenance (at medium-high test levels); None (at high-very high test levels). Recommendation Philosophies

  21. Wrong Recommendation = Real Loss Real Money = Get a Second Opinion? Murdock, 1992, AGR-151

  22. Future Nutrient Challenges? A Hydrologic ‘Short-Circuit’?

  23. A Different “Yield” Is your soil test program ready? 1 kg P/km2/yr = 0.009 lb P/acre/yr 10 kg P/km2/yr = 0.09 lb P/acre/yr 100 kg P/km2/yr = 0.9 lb P/acre/yr USGS

  24. 110 100 90 80 High Yield (% of maximum) Med 70 60 Low 50 40 0 1 5 30 60 Soil Test P (lbs/acre) Soil Test P (lb/acre) V.low Agronomic Threshold/Critical Value This UK Knows - Well Sikora, pers. comm.

  25. 110 100 90 Yield (% of maximum) 80 Limited Risk Risk of P runoff of P runoff 70 60 50 Environmental Threshold This UK Does Not Know Well 40 ??? Soil Test P (lbs/acre) Sikora, pers. comm.

  26. Predicting Water Soluble P from Mehlich III P on Twenty Kentucky Soils D’Angelo, pers. comm.

  27. Water Quality and PUE = Win-Win Greater phosphorus use efficiency (PUE) improves water quality Strategies: P placement/banding below the soil surface Additives: ??? The future: Tie up/fix available fertilizer and manure P at the soil surface – gypsum and iron wastes Move available P, chemically, a bit deeper into the soil, perhaps just 1 inch below the surface

  28. Water Quality and NUE: Guarding Against N Losses: Volatilization of Ammonia (NH3) Leaching of Nitrate (NO3-) Denitrification into N2 and N2O Immobilization into Organic N John Sawyer, Iowa State University

  29. IPNI, Fairchild Water Quality and NUE: Guarding Against N Losses: Delayed/Split N Timing – reduce the probability of denitrification and leaching Fairchild, IPNI

  30. Water Quality and NUE: Guarding Against N Losses: Reducing N Immobilization and NH3 volatilization: N Placement Below The Surface

  31. Maintaining Sufficient Nitrogen Increasing the N rate – “insurance” N may not be an option. Have you evaluated the alternatives? Don’t have to use steel & time. Reduce the probability of denitrification and leaching with a nitrification inhibitor nitrapyrin/N-Serve/Instinct, DCD, Super U) Reduce volatilization with an inhibitor NBPT/Agrotain, other NBPT formulations (jar test?) New inhibitors? Not in short-term. But further out there is more to look for.

  32. N and P management options may change. Can you reduce your N or P application rate by 5, 15 or 25%? Sometimes an ‘on-farm’ test is needed. Your N (P) rate Your N (P) rate + product/practice X Your N (P) rate + extra N (P); $N(P) =cost of X Your N (P) rate – the N (P) it takes to pay for X; total $= cost of your old N (P) rate alone Peace of mind comes at a price. Take-Home Messages

  33. Thank You! Questions?

  34. 1752 samples averaging 101 lb STP/A Sikora, 2013

  35. 1752 samples averaging 301 lb STP/A Sikora, 2013

  36. 1488 samples averaging 70 lb STP/A Sikora, 2013

  37. 1488 samples averaging 315 lb STK/A Sikora, 2013

  38. Schwab & Murdock 75 lb N/A, except control

  39. Norman, Univ. of Arkansas

  40. Corn Grain Yields - 2009

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