Transmission Planning Activities in South-East Europe

1. Joint Transmission System Operator – Utility Regulator Workshop on Integration and Cross Border Trade of Renewable Energy Resources in Regional Transmission NetworksIstanbul, 8 March 2011 Transmission Planning Activities in South-East Europe

2. ENTSO-E: a trans-European network • Established under the Regulation 714/2009 • Fully operational since July 2009 • Represents 42 TSOs from 34 countries • 525 million customers • 828 GW generation capacity • 305,000 Km of transmission lines • Total demand:3,400 TWh/year • Electricity trade volume: 400 TWh/year • Replaces former TSO organisations: UCTE, ETSO, NORDEL, UKTSOA, ATSOI, BALTSO

3. Regional Groups of System Development Committee of ENTSO-E

4. Regulation 714/2009 – tasks for ENTSO-E Article 4: European network of transmission system operators for electricity Completion and functioning of the internal market in electricity and cross-border trade Optimal management, coordinated operation and sound technical evolution of the European electricity transmission network Article 6: Establishment of network codes Article 8: Tasks of the ENTSO for Electricity Network codes Common network operation tools Non‑binding Community‑wide 10‑year network development plan, including a European generation adequacy outlook, every two years Work programme, annual report, summer/winter outlooks, monitoring Full implementation until March 2011 ENTSO-E operational much earlier because a fully developed IEM and the integration of RES demand urgent TSO action

5. Context for the TYNDP Non binding Every 2 years Binding Every year Regulators check consistency • Nat. TYNDPs • Existing and forecast supply demand • Efficient measures to guarantee adequacy & SoS • Indicate main transmission infrastructure to be built • Based on reasonable assumptions about evolution of generation • Supply consumption and exchanges • EU-TYNDP • Generation adequacy outlook 5 yr up to 15yr ( 2025!) • modelling integrated networks • Scenario development • Assessment of resilience • Based on reasonable needs of system users • Identify investments gaps • Review barriers to increase cross border capacities arising from approval procedures Build on nat. gen. adequacy outlooks and invest. plans Take into account Non binding Every 2 years Take into account Take into account Regional Investment Plans

6. Context Energy policy goals Sustainability: More renewables and further from the loads More heating and mobility with electricity Competitiveness/market integration: More long-distance flows Security of supply: More optimal resources sharing require more grid

7. Transmission Infrastructure in the centre Sustainability Assessment Competitiveness EU Strategic Goals Security of Supply Assist Policy Action Inform TYNDP Coordinate Evaluate Monitoring • “ENTSO-E shall adopt a non-binding Community-wide ten-year network development plan” • Transparency • Decision making process • Networks/scenarios/Generation outlook/resilience

8. TYNDP delivers Investment Needs based on calculations and experience from 42 TSOs 2010-2014 2015+ 1st Pilot TYNDP issued on June 2010  A comprehensive and pragmatic identification of investment needs

9. TYNDP delivers

10. TYNDP delivers Planned transmission projects 2010-2014 2015+  The most up-to-date collection of all planned transmission investments

11. TYNDP in figures The TYNDP projects represent~14% of existing lines € 23 to 28 billion for the first five years !

12. TYNDP in figures Each market region is concerned

13. Grid development - challenges • Legal and Regulatory frameworks • accelerate/simplify permitting procedures while maintaining checks and balances • adequate financing given the major effort induced by RES • Involve all relevant stakeholders into information channeling in order to alleviate uncertainties (generation location, policy implications) • Social acceptance of transmission infrastructure

14. TYNDP - public consultation • Public consultation 1st March – 10th April • More than 100 attendees at workshop, 21 written answers • Acknowledgements • Shared sense of urgency • Synthetic picture of congestion • Project clustering, improved transfer capability • Achievement of EU 2020 targets • Integration of transmission projects • Also from non-ENTSO-E members

15. First TYNDP a Pilot, but process has already started EC preparation of the Energy Infrastructure Package: ENTSO-E invited to provide additional input to assist the assessment of the Policy Compare TYNDP planning scenarios with publicly available scenarios related to the EU2020 targets. “What if” planning scenarios should converge today to 2020 scenarios. More RES? Less Fossil? Where? Propose measures to accelerate permitting procedures in Europe. Visualize main enhancements in NTCs But, focus on forward-looking indicators for market integration.

16. Evolving from reliable networks designed for optimization of generation resources and power demand requirements… … towards a transmission & distribution networks implementing EU energy & climate policies and maximizing welfare. Main challenge for all network operators • Electricity Directive 96/92/EC (1999) • 3rd Legislative Package for the Internal Market in electricity (2009) • Directive for Renewable Energy Sources (2009) August 24, 2014 Page 16 of 17

17. Next steps State of the art Network data 2012 and further 3rd package + stakeholders’ expectations Inputs/data for background scenarios First draft -10yNDP Regional Transmission Plans First -10yNDP consultation Background scenarios development Background scenarios validation Grid adequacy analyses Background scenarios Draft 10yNDP consultation Investment gaps Grid projects In 2010 Next issues of 10yNDP

18. Goals for the next TYNDP in 2012 Run the complete 2-year cycle Consultations on scenarios and final report Regional Transmission Plans + ENTSO-E TYNDP Develop a third shared, top-down, long-run scenario NREAPs in June/10 A shared vision of the EU 2020 targets in the power sector in every country Set a framework for all regional studies Use of dedicated shared ENTSO-E pan-European models Modeling the market behavior Scenario EU 2020 (main + obligatory) Constructed in collaboration with other bodies (EURELECTRIC, EWEA, EFET, EGREG, etc)

19. Scenario EU2020 (3x20) cutting energy consumption by 20% of projected 2020 levels - by improving energy efficiency Indication of the impact of efficiency measures on electricity demand increasing use of renewables (wind, solar, biomass, etc) to 20% of total energy consumption RES share in electricity consumption Harmonization of Grid Codes cutting greenhouse gases by at least 20% of 1990 levels CO2 emissions indicator Compatible with available NREAPs Comparison to a “Business As Usual” Scenario (B)

20. RES share in electricity consumption at ENTSO-E/ EU level

21. Discrepancies among Scenaria

22. Continental South East Regional Group

23. CSE Regional Group • 11 TSOs

24. Motivation for transmission investments in CSE Europe • Strengthening of the Regional network in the predominant power flow directions (N-S, E-W) • Accommodation of foreseen new conventional and RES generation • Increase reliability and security of supply • Increase transfer capacities and volume of commercial exchanges in the region • Extension of the synchronous zone to the East (Turkey and Ukraine & Moldova)

25. Grid investment needs for SE Continental system up to 2015 The most significant reinforcement projects for this period appear in Greece and in south Italy

26. Grid investment needs for SE Continental system after 2015 Major reinforcement projects for this period appear also in other Balkan countries e.g. Bulgaria, Romania

27. New projects in SE up to 2015 • New important transmission lines: • N. Santa (GR)-Maritsa (BG) • Ernestinovo (HR)-Pecs (HU) • Stip (MK) – Nis (RS) • Podgorica (ME)-Tirana (Al) • Italy-Montenegro (DC) • Italy-Albania (DC)

28. New projects in SE after 2015 • New important transmission lines: • Cirkovce (Sl) - Heviz (Hu) • Pancevo (RS)-Resita (RO) • Okroglo(Sl) - Udine(IT) • Italy – Greece new dc cable

29. CSE Regional Group – Summary of projects • Upgrade or construction of ~6,500km of AC lines (380-400kV) • Upgrade or construction of ~ 513 km of AC lines (<380kV) • Construction of ~2270km of DC lines • Estimated cost 4-5 billion Euros for the next 5 years

30. Next steps to proceed with Regional Investment Plan and contribution to TYNDP (1/2) • Common market and network studies: • Regional market modeling • Network adequacy studies and provisional needs for transmission investments • Sensitivity studies • Estimation of future NTC values

31. Next steps to proceed with Regional Investment Plan and contribution to TYNDP (2/2) • To provide an estimation of the “most likely” power flows • To estimate transmission adequacy and expected transfer capacity increase • Main scenario to be examined 20x20x20 in 2020 • Assessment of the impact of increased RES penetration on the regional network • A Regional (coordinated) Investment Plan will be issued on December 2011

32. Common activities for large RES penetration in SE Europe • Regular meetings for regional RES issues • Regular information exchange for RES developments and prospects in each country • Analysis of the current situation, regulatory and technical frameworks as well as the expected RES penetration in the area. • Common studies have been launched to assess the impacts of the expected RES penetration in the Balkan grid. • Detection of weak network points and proposals for reinforcements • A coordinated Regional Transmission Plan will be issued on December 2011

33. Visions and Actions towards 2050

34. ENTSO-E takes over a responsible role for the future energy system Integrated concept Taking all aspects into account Involving all major stakeholders in the process Huge investment budget In-depth study necessary to avoid stranded investments Modular approach Gaining know-how along the learning curve, realization should proceed step-by-step In line with EIP, ENTSO-E takes the lead in a 3-year in-depth study project to finally develop by end 2014 the Modular Development Plan for a Pan-European Electricity Highways System The Strategy: Sustainable solutions for the big challenges ahead need in-depth analysis before investment decisions.

35. The Timeline: Main steps towards a Modular Development Plan for a pan-European Electricity Highways System Q1-Q2 2011 Q1 2012 Q4 2014 Broad consultation of study package Start of FP7 study project Dissemination of intermediate results Modular Development Plan for Pan-EuropeanElectricity Highways System

36. The overall ENTSO-E Mission • Identify studies and elaborate a “Roadmap towards a pan-European power system 2050” with special focus on a 2050 supergrid as an overall guideline for the supergrid conceptual phase • Perform consultations and closely collaborate with EC, stakeholders and the public for achieving a common understanding of supergrid issues • Manage ENTSO-E supergrid studies and address all essential results at EU level • Develop strategies for increasing the social acceptance for grid development measures as a precondition for the realization of the supergrid concept. • Develop strategies for increasing the readiness of decisionmakers to support and promote the idea of a supergrid as an answer to European energy needs.

37. New Context: The EIP Blueprint* • EIP blueprint recommendations: • Following key actions are necessary to prepare European Electricity Highways: • In line with the conclusions of Bucharest Forum (06/2009): • Initiate dedicated work on the Electricity Highways, in the framework of • the Florence Forum, to structure the work carried out by all stakeholders • Organisationby the European Commission and ENTSO-E and bringing together all relevant stakeholders * Communication paper on Energy Infrastructure Package as published by EC on 17th November 2010

38. Energy regulators European Commission New Context: Possible Electricity Highways Stakeholder Platform Member States Energy industry associations DSO association Manufacturer ENTSO-G ENTSO-E ACER Universities/R&D performer Renewable energy associations Financial institutions Consumer associations NGOs

39. The Approach – ENTSO-E Study Roadmap Modular Electricity Highways System Development Plan 2050 ENTSO-E Study Roadmap Setting up ENTSO-E approach on Electricity Highways System 12/2014 Pre-phase Consultations with relevant supergrid players 08/2010 Final consultation process Study Roadmap towards a pan-European power system 2050 Elaboration of ENTSO-E study package towards concept on Electricity Highways System Elaboration of comprehensive and sustainable concept on Electricity Highways System 07/2011 12/2011 02/2011 Initial consultation process Consortium establishment Start of Study package on Electricity Highways System 06/2012: TYNDP 2012 incl. progress report on Electricity Highways System

40. Way ahead: Work programme from 2011 on (I) • Q4 2010 – Q1 2011:Consultation with DG Energy / Preparation of Electricity Highways Stakeholder Platform: • Several discussions with DG Energy were done in preparation of EIP (incl. contribution to ENTSO-E reaction on EIP blueprint). • In close cooperation with DG Energy, a comprehensive stakeholder list for Electricity Highways Stakeholder Platform was defined in preparation of 19th Florence Forum (see Annex 2 to cover note). • Currently: Florence Forum conclusions, the DG Energy/ENTSO-E/ACER chaired Electricity Highways Stakeholder Platform is in realization. • Q1/Q2 2011:ENTSO-E internal/external consultation on 2050 Study Roadmap (see slides below) • Q3/Q4 2011:Preparation of realization of 2050 Study Roadmap • Establishment of consortium in cooperation with RDC and Electricity Highways Stakeholder Platform (TSOs as coordinator, EDSO, manufacturers, institutes and universities, NGOs, consumer associations, industry associations,…) • Application on dedicated SET plan FP7 call

41. Way ahead: Work programme from 2011 on (II) • Q1 2012 – Q4 2014: Coordination of FP7 study project on pan-European Electricity • Highways System • Preparation of Modular Development Plan on pan-European Electricity Highways System - following the EIP blueprint • Involvment of all relevant stakeholders optimally by usage of the Electricity Highways Stakeholder Platform as Stakeholder Advisory Body in the FP7 project structure

42. Thank you kabouris@desmie.gr