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Workers Compensation & the Economy Impact of the Financial Crisis, Economic Recession & Stimulus

Workers Compensation & the Economy Impact of the Financial Crisis, Economic Recession & Stimulus. Workers Compensation Educational Conference Orlando, FL August 18, 2009 Download at www.iii.org/presentations/WCEC081809 /. Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President

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Workers Compensation & the Economy Impact of the Financial Crisis, Economic Recession & Stimulus

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  1. Workers Compensation& the EconomyImpact of the Financial Crisis, Economic Recession & Stimulus Workers Compensation Educational Conference Orlando, FL August 18, 2009 Download at www.iii.org/presentations/WCEC081809/ Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038 Tel: (212) 346-5520  bobh@iii.org  www.iii.org

  2. Presentation Outline • The Economic Storm: Recession & Recovery • Economic Trends: Workers Comp Exposure Implications • Labor Force and Payroll Trends • Financial Strength & Ratings • P/C Insurance Industry Overview • Profitability • Premium Growth • Underwriting Performance • Financial Market Impacts • Capital & Capacity

  3. THE ECONOMIC STORMWhat the Financial Crisis and Recession Mean for the Workers Comp Exposure Base and Growth

  4. Real GDP Growth* The Q1:2009 decline was the steepest since the Q1:1982 drop of 6.4% Personal and commercial lines exposure base have been hit hard and will be slow to come back Recession began in December 2007. Economic toll of credit crunch, housing slump, labor marketcontraction has been severe but recovery is in sight *Blue bars are Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 8/09; Insurance Information Institute.

  5. Fastest Growing States in 2008 vs. Florida Real State GDP Growth Percent Fastest growing states are in the Plains, Mountain and Upper Midwest regions Florida was in a 4-way tie as the 8th-fastest growing state in 2008 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Insurance Information Institute.

  6. Length of U.S. Business Cycles, 1929-Present* Duration (Months) Average Duration** Recession = 10.4 Months Expansion = 60.5 Months Length of expansions greatly exceeds contractions Month Recession Started * As of August 2009, inclusive; **Post-WW II period through end of most recent expansion. Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research; Insurance Information Institute.

  7. Total Industrial Production,(2007:Q1 to 2010:Q4F) End of recession in late 2009, Obama stimulus program are expected to benefit industrial production and therefore insurance exposure both directly and indirectly Figures for 2010 revised upwards to reflect expected impact of Obama stimulus program and a gradual economic recovery Industrial production began to contracted sharply in late 2008 and plunged in Q1 2009 Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (8/09); Insurance Info. Inst.

  8. Labor Market TrendsFast & Furious: Massive Job Losses Sap the Economy Workers Comp & Other Commercial Exposure

  9. Unemployment Rate:On the Rise January 2000 through July 2009 July 2009 unemployment was 9.4%, down 0.1% from July but still near its highest level since August 1983 Previous Peak: 6.3% in June 2003 Trough: 4.4% in March 2007 Unemployment will likely peak near 10 % during this cycle, impacting payroll sensitive p/c and l/h exposures Average unemployment rate 2000-07 was 5.0% Jul-09 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

  10. U.S. Unemployment Rate,(2007:Q1 to 2010:Q4F)* Rising unemployment is eroding payrolls and workers comp’s exposure base. Unemployment is expected to peak above 10% in early 2010. * Blue bars are actual; Yellow bars are forecasts Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (8/09); Insurance Info. Inst.

  11. Monthly Change Employment*(Thousands) January 2008 through July 2009 Job losses since the recession began in Dec. 2007 total 6.7 mill; 14.5 million people are now defined as unemployed. Monthly losses in Dec. – May were the largest in the post-WW II period but pace of loss is diminishing Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm; Insurance Info. Institute

  12. Wage & Salary Disbursements (Payroll Base) vs. Workers Comp Net Written Premiums Wage & Salary Disbursement (Private Employment) vs. WC NWP $ Billions $ Billions 12/07-? 7/90-3/91 3/01-11/01 Weakening wage and salary growth is expected to cause a deceleration in workers comp exposure growth Shaded areas indicate recessions *Average Wage and Salary data as of 4/1/2009. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis at http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WASCUR; I.I.I. Fact Books

  13. Unemployment Rates by State, June 2009: Highest 25 States* The unemployment rate has been rising across the country, but some states are doing much better than others. Florida had the 13th highest unemployment rate in the US in June 2009 at 10.6% vs. 9.5% for the US *Provisional figures for June 2009, seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

  14. Unemployment Rates By State, June 2009: Lowest 25 States* North Dakota had the lowest unemployment rate in the US in June 2009 at 4.2% vs. 9.5% for the US *Provisional figures for June 2009, seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

  15. State Economic Growth Varied Tremendously in 2008 FL had the second-to-worst economic growth in 2008 at -1.6% vs US +0.7%

  16. Percent Change in Employment by Industry: Most Declined Change in July 2009 vs. June 2009 Percent Change Few industries saw gains in employment last month The US economy lost 247,000 jobs in July 2009 and 6.7 million jobs since the recession began in Dec. 2007 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

  17. Expected Number of Jobs Gained or Preserved by Stimulus SpendingLarger States = More JobsWorkers Comp Benefits

  18. Estimated Job Effect of Stimulus Spending By State: Top 25 States (Thousands) The economic stimulus plan calls for the creation or preservation of 3.5 million jobs (207,000 in FL), allocated roughly in proportion to the size of the state’s labor force. Sources: http://www.recovery.gov/; Council of Economic Advisers Insurance Information Institute.

  19. GREEN SHOOTSIs the Recession Nearing an End?

  20. Hopeful Signs That the EconomyWill Begin to Recover Soon Recession Appears to be Bottoming Out, Freefall Has Ended Pace of GDP shrinkage is beginning to diminish Pace of job losses is slowing Major stock market indices well off record lows, anticipating recovery Some signs of retail sales stabilization are evident Financial Sector is Stabilizing Banks are reporting quarterly profits Many banks expanding lending to credit worthy people & businesses Housing Sector Likely to Find Bottom Soon Home are much more affordable (attracting buyers) Mortgage rates are still low relative to pre-crisis levels (attracting buyers) Freefall in housing starts and existing home sales is ending in many areas Inflation & Energy Prices Are Under Control Consumer & Business Debt Loads Are Shrinking Source: Ins. Info. Inst.

  21. 11 Industries for the Next 10 Years: Insurance Solutions Needed • Government • Education • Health Care • Energy (Traditional) • Alternative Energy • Agriculture • Natural Resources • Environmental • Technology • Light Manufacturing • Export Oriented Industries

  22. Crisis-Driven Exposure Implications Exposure Growth Slowed as Economy Nosedived

  23. New Private Housing Starts,1990-2010F (Millions of Units) New home starts plunged 34% from 2005-2007; Drop through 2009 is 73% (est.)—a net annual decline of 1.5 million units, lowest since record began in 1959 Exposure growth due to home construction forecast for HO insurers is dim for 2009 with some improvement in 2010. Impacts also for comml. insurers with construction risk & WC exposure I.I.I. estimates that each incremental 100,000 decline in housing starts costs home insurers $87.5 million in new exposure (gross premium). The net exposure loss in 2009 vs. 2005 is estimated at about $1.3 billion. Source: US Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (8/09); Insurance Information Inst.

  24. Auto/Light Truck Sales,1999-2010F (Millions of Units) New auto/light truck sales are expected to experience a net drop of 6.6 million units annually by 2009 compared with 2005, a decline of 39.1% and the lowest level since the late 1960s. Boost in 2009/10 due to Cash for Clunkers program Weak economy, credit crunch, gas prices hurt auto sales; “Cash for Clunkers” will help. Impacts of falling auto sales will have a less pronounced effect on auto insurance exposure growth than problems in the housing market will on home insurers Source: US Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (8/09); Insurance Information Inst.

  25. FINANCIAL STRENGTH & RATINGSIndustry Has Weathered the Storms Well

  26. P/C Insurer Impairments,1969-2008 The number of impairments varies significantly over the p/c insurance cycle, with peaks occurring well into hard markets Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute

  27. P/C INSURANCE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEA Resilient Industry in Challenging Times

  28. ProfitabilityHistorically Volatile

  29. P/C Net Income After Taxes1991-2009:Q1 ($ Millions)* Insurer profits peaked in 2006 and 2007, but fell 96.2% during the economic crisis in 2008 • 2005 ROE= 9.4% • 2006 ROE = 12.2% • 2007 ROAS1 = 12.4% • 2008 ROAS = 0.5%* • 2009:Q1 ROAS = -1.2%* *ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guarantee insurers yields an 4.2% ROAS for 2008 and 2.2%. 2009:Q1 net income was $2.4 billion excl. M&FG. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Inst. 44

  30. A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What it Used to Be: 95 is Where It’s At Combined ratios must me must lower in today’s depressed investment environment to generate risk appropriate ROEs * 2008/9 figures are return on average statutory surplus. Excludes mortgage and financial guarantee insurers. Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO data.

  31. P/C Premium GrowthPrimarily Driven by the Industry’s Underwriting Cycle, Not the Economy

  32. Strength of Recent Hard Marketsby NWP Growth 1975-78 1984-87 2000-03 Shaded areas denote “hard market” periods Net written premiums fell 1.0% in 2007 (first decline since 1943) by 1.4% in 2008, and 3.6% in Q1 2009, the first 3-year declines since 1930-33 47 Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute

  33. Average Commercial Rate Change,All Lines, (1Q:2004 – 2Q:2009) Magnitude of price declines is now shrinking. Reflects shrinking capital, reduced investment gains, deteriorating underwriting performance, higher cat losses and costlier reinsurance -0.1% KRW Effect Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers; Insurance Information Institute

  34. Capital/Policyholder SurplusShrinkage, but Capital is Within Historic Norms

  35. U.S. Policyholder Surplus: 1975-2009:Q1* Actual capacity as of 3/31/09 was $437.1, down 4.2% from 12/31/08 at $455.6B, but still 53% above its 2002 trough. Recent peak was $521.8 as of 9/30/07. Surplus as of 3/31/09 is 16.2 below 2007 peak. $ Billions The premium-to-surplus ratio stood at $1.03:$1 as of 3/31/09, up from near record low of $0.85:$1 at year-end 2007 “Surplus” is a measure of underwriting capacity. It is analogous to “Owners Equity” or “Net Worth” in non-insurance organizations 51 Source: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute. *As of 3/31/09

  36. Investment Performance Investments are the Principle Source of Declining Profitability

  37. Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain:1994- 2009:Q11 Investment gains fell by 51% in 2008 due to lower yields, poor equity market conditions. Falling again in 2009. 1Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses. 2006 figure consists of $52.3B net investment income and $3.4B realized investment gain. *2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B. Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute. 58

  38. Treasury Yield Curves: Pre-Crisis (July 2007) vs. July 2009 Treasury Yield Curve is at its most depressed level in at least 45 years. Investment income will fall as a result. Stock dividend cuts will further pressure investment income Sources: Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve Bank; Insurance Information Institute.

  39. Insurance Information Institute On-Line WWW.III.ORG THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME AND YOUR ATTENTION! Download at http://www.iii.org/presentations/WCEC081809.ppt 67

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