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Module 2: Climate change impact on a project level

Module 2: Climate change impact on a project level. Content. Project impact, indicators and their role Indicators for climate change mitigation and adaptation and key impact measurement techniques Tools and resources for measuring climate change impact Key take-away messages.

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Module 2: Climate change impact on a project level

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  1. Module 2: Climate change impact on a project level

  2. Content • Project impact, indicators and their role • Indicators for climate change mitigation and adaptation and key impact measurement techniques • Tools and resources for measuring climate change impact • Key take-away messages

  3. Project impact, indicators and their role

  4. Project impact – concept and terminology (Project) Impact: Positive and negative, primary and secondary long-term effects produced by an intervention, directly or indirectly, intended or unintended. STATUS QUO (baseline) PROJECT INTERVENTION PROJECT IMPACT M&E MRV • Creating indicators to track progress on the achievement of the project objectives is a key element of setting up Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E), respectively Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) systems to measure climate change impact during and after project implementation.

  5. General indicatorclassifications Foranyprojectitisimportanttoconsidervariousformsofindicatorstocaptureprojectreality! Quantitative indicators(e.g. percentage increase/decrease, ratios, absolute numbers) Qualitative indicators(e.g. results of an open-structured interview, description of a behavioral observation, narrative) Economicindicators(e.g. netpresentvalue, benefit-cost-ration, internal rate ofreturn) Behavioralindicators(e.g. modificationin behavior of targeted population) Logical frameworkclassification(output, outcome, process, impact)

  6. The role of indicators – logical framework Objectives Outcomes Outputs Activities Indicators are part of the results management framework (RMF) that intends to measure the achievement of a project or programmeagainst the goals defined by the fund. Indicators are defined for each level of the logical framework for mitigation and adaptation

  7. Selection of indicators – a challenging task Whenformulatingindicators, makesuretothinkofhowtocollectthenecessarydatatomeasureit! Selecting the appropriate indicators can be a challenging task and needs to balance:

  8. Formulation of SMART indicators S-Specific: they measure only the outcome or output they intend to measure, not other elements of the project/programme M - Measurable: there are practical ways to measure them, with results being clear and unambiguous A - Attributable: changes in the indicator can be clearly attributed to project/programme activities R-Realistic: data can be collected or measured with available resources at the intervals required T - Timebound: (a) defined time for collection; (b) timing of collection appropriate; (c) time-lag between activities, outputs and outcomes must be reflected

  9. Information requirements for indicators

  10. Overview of indicators for climate change mitigation and their measurement

  11. Mitigationindicators When choosing indirect metrics, consider whether it will be important to „convert“ the outcomes into GHG reductions with emission factors! Metrics overview: Absolute GHG or CO2 emissions; Relative GHG Emissions (e.g. emissions intensity); Indirect metrics (e.g. MW of renewable energy capacity installed, m3 of forest stock, or qualitative aspects such as mitigative capacity, co-benefits)

  12. Focus ofmitigationindicators Directemissionsreductions Indirectemissionsreductions Mitigativecapacitiestobedeveloped Sustainabledevelopment co-benefits Indicators should reflect what the mitigation project seeks to achieve:

  13. Focus ofmitigationindicators – directemissionsreductions Directemissionsreductions Direct emissions reductions refer to those GHG emissions which result directly from the project activities and are emitted from sources that are owned or controlled by the reporting entity. Indicator example: CO2 emissions reduced for the public transport sector through the introduction of low-carbon buses (hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric buses)

  14. Focus ofmitigationindicators – indirectemissionsreductions Indirectemissionsreductions Directemissionsreductions on projectlevelarevery rare. Most mitigationprojectsachieveratherindirectemissionsreductions! Indirect emissions refer to those GHG emissions which are a consequence of the activities of the reporting entity, but occur at sources owned or controlled by another entity. Indicator example: Amount of investments in energy efficient buildings that will be made due to the barrier removal and market creation by the project and that are not within the direct control of the project.

  15. Focus ofmitigationindicators – mitigativecapacitiestobedeveloped Mitigativecapacitiestobedeveloped Mitigative capacity describes a project’s contribution to increasing a country’s capacity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, or to protect or expand natural (carbon) sinks. This can be at the individual, organisationalor societal level of the country. Indicator example: Share of national budget allocation towards renewable energy installations (as a result of technical advisory of the relevant government agencies on developing a national renewable energy policy)

  16. Focus ofmitigationindicators – sustainabledevelopmentco-benefits Sustainabledevelopment co-benefits Sustainable development co-benefits result from a project/programmein addition to the GHG emissions reduction. ‘Co-benefits’ generally pertain to the substance of the initiative, such as energy access, water conservation, improved traffic flows or more efficient farming Indicator example: Number of people with energy access (as a result of a wind park installationsupplyingenergyto remote townsandvillageswithoutaccesstothe national grid)

  17. Green Climate Fund: Initial performance indicators for mitigation

  18. IndicatorsaspartofMeasuring, Reporting & Verification (MRV) Measuring Reporting Verification • What gets measured? • Emission reductions according to emission baseline scenario • Progress of achievement of sustainable development goals/co-benefits What gets reported? Data on emission savings and methodologies/sustainability objectives, coverage, institutional arrangements and activities What gets verified? All quantitative and qualitative information reported for the mitigation action MRV of actions is a concept to measure, report and verify the impacts of mitigation policies and actions. Activities of the action are assigned their own indicators, whether they seek to measure GHG reductions or other benefits  Indicatorsdetermine what gets measured, reported and verified!

  19. Indicators as part of Measuring, Reporting & Verification (MRV) (Source: GIZ, 2014. MRV Tool) Measurement should cover overall emissions and emission reductions of GHGs Define a baseline: calculate the difference between the emissions projections scenario with and without the project/programme, in order to obtain an estimation of the emission mitigation impact of the project Create indicators to track progress on: The achievement of the mitigation goal The achievement of sustainable development goals Develop data management systems to identify and record measurable data from different sources. Define responsibilities to sectoral organizations, municipalities, companies and other stakeholders. Conduct measurement on a regular basis.

  20. Impact measurementformitigation – commonterms BaselineThe baseline (or reference) is the state against which change is measured. It might be a ‘current baseline’, in which case it represents observable, present-day conditions. It might also be a ‘future baseline’, which is a projected future set of conditions excluding the driving factor of interest.. Business asUsual (BAU): BAU refersto a baseline scenario which assumes that future development trends follow those of the past and no changes in policies will take place. (IPCC Glossary) Additionality:Additionality is the effect of the project activity to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions or increase actual net GHG removals below the level that would have occurred in the absence of the project.(CDM Glossary)

  21. Impact measurementformitigation – GHG Accounting GHG Protocol for Project Accounting Greenhouse Gas Protocol tools enable companies and cities to develop comprehensive and reliable inventories of their GHG emissions, and help countries and cities track progress toward their climate goals. Calculating emissions is a multi-step process. An accurate and useful inventory can only be developed after careful attention to quality control issues and to the activity data required. http://www.ghgprotocol.org/standards/project-protocol The following notes set out a common approach of accounting for net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) projects in accordance with the International Financial Institution (IFI) framework IFI approach to GHG accounting for energy efficiency projectshttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/893531467991051828/pdf/101531-WP-P143154-PUBLIC-Box394816B-Joint-IFI-EE-GHG-Accounting-Approach-clean-final-11-30.pdf IFI approach to GHG accounting for renewable energy projectshttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/758831468197412195/pdf/101532-WP-P143154-PUBLIC-Box394816B-Joint-IFI-RE-GHG-Accounting-Approach-clean-final-11-30.pdf

  22. Impact measurementformitigation – GHG Accounting There is a series of further approaches to GHG accounting, see selection below: Clean Development Mechanism methodologyhttps://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/documentation/index.html Verified Carbon Standardhttp://www.v-c-s.org/ Gold Standardhttps://www.goldstandard.org/ EU Emissions Trading Schemehttps://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets/monitoring_en ISO 14064 (Parts 1 and 2) https://www.iso.org/standard/38381.html (part 1) https://www.iso.org/standard/38382.html (part 2) Policy and Action Standard (refers to policies not projects!)http://www.ghgprotocol.org/policy-and-action-standard

  23. Mitigationimpactmeasurement in practice – GCF projectexample Source: GCF approved project: SCF Capital Solutions, South Africa

  24. Mitigationimpactmeasurement in practice – GCF projectexample Source: GCF approved project: SCF Capital Solutions, South Africa

  25. Overview of indicators for climate change adaptation and their measurement

  26. Climate change adaptation project impact Climatestimulusleadstoimpacts on communitylivelihoods Project objective: Promoting Climate-Resilient Water Management and Agricultural Practices ADAPTATION PROJECT: Introductionofdrought resistent crops, mini ponds for rain water harvesting, renewable energy powered water pumps etc. FOOD INSECURITY DECREASED RAINFALL AND DROUGHT PROJECT IMPACT: Irrigation coverageandfarmingproductivityincreasedresulting in enhancedfoodsecurity CROP LOSSES M&E Increasingclimateresilience – vulnerabilitytoclimatechangereduced

  27. Determining climate change vulnerabilities and the need for adaptation Before preparing climate change adaptation projects, the anticipated impacts of climate change and local vulnerabilitiesofthetargetregionneedtobedetermined! Climate impact and risk analyses or vulnerability assessments identify regions, social groups or economic activities that are at risk Tools & Resources: • GIZ 2014: The Vulnerability Sourcebook • GIZ 2017: Risk Supplement to the Vulnerability Sourcebook • UNFCCC: Handbook on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment • … for further resources see here: http://www.adaptationcommunity.net/publications/?topic=vulnerability-risk-assessment

  28. GIZ’s Adaptation made to measure: Five-step model Adaptation indicators as part of M&Eon a project level • The principal aim of M&E is to demonstrate the benefits of adaptation. • M&E needs to be already considered during the planning and design phase • Adaptation M&E at the project level does not require a completely different M&E system • Potential challenges for adaptation M&E at the project level: • Designing meaningful adaptation indicatorsbeyond the output level. • Dealing with the uncertainty in climate and socio-economic development. • Evaluating project results after the project lifetime. Source: www.adaptationcommunity.net GIZ, 2011. Adaptation made to measure. A guidebook to the design and results-based monitoring of climate change adaptation projects

  29. Adaptation indicators – adaptation action Adaptation action Focus of indicator: Information to help track the implementation of adaptation strategies • Indicatorexample: Percentage of population living in flood and/or drought-prone areas with access to rainfall forecasts • Unit ofmeasurement: percentage • Data needs: Information on designated drought- and flood-prone areas (e.g. hazard maps); number of people living there and their access to different information channels (radio, extension service etc.) • Potential datasources: Ministry/ies responsible for climate change and/or disaster risk reduction; Meteorological agency; Community surveys on climate information provision and access • Potential limitations: This indicator could be completed with other indicators to assess the quality of the forecast, if people actually acted upon them and who is benefiting from improved access to rainfall forecasts.

  30. Adaptation indicators – adaptation results Focus of indicator: Information to help monitor and evaluate the outcomes of adaptation strategies where outcomes are broadly understood in terms of increased adaptive capacity (often framed as development outcomes), decreased sensitivity to climate stress, or some combination thereof. Adaptation results • Indicator example: Volume of water consumed by tourist facilities • Unit ofmeasurement: litre • Data needs: Total quantity of drinking water consumed by tourist facilities • Potential datasources:Utility provider • Potential limitations: This indicator only includes the volume of water consumed in tourist facilities for which tourist facilities are invoiced (drinking water) and does not take any other supplies of water into account. It does not consider the amount of tourists (water use per head).

  31. Green Climate Fund: Initial performance indicators for adaptation

  32. Monitoring of adaptation indicators Key questions for project implementation and management Should data collection for indicators be done in an inclusive manner? If so, are data being collected inclusively and with the appropriate stakeholder groups? Are the data sources and collection methods for the indicators clear for evaluators and participating stakeholders? Are the indicators (and associated terminology) clear so that evaluators and participating stakeholders can easily interpret them?

  33. http://www.ipcc-data.org/ Impact measurementforadaptation – tools Baseline data can be derived from the IPCC Data Distribution Centre providing access to: observed data covering the physical climate (e.g. global distributions temperature and rainfall) atmospheric composition, socio-economic information (e.g. national population and income data), and impacts of climate change

  34. http://www.adaptationcommunity.net/ Impact measurementforadaptation – tools AdaptationCommunity.net The platform captures knowledge and experience of adaptation decision-makers from around the world. By providing an inventory of methods for adaptation to climate change and their practical application, the platform can help with the formulation of adaptation indicators and give guidance on how to measure them. For instance you will find training materials, webinars and publications on topics such as adaptation M&E or impact evaluation of climate change adaptation projects.

  35. Impact measurementforadaptation – tools http://www.adaptationcommunity.net/?wpfb_dl=221/ Repository of Adaptation Indicators This repository of adaptation indicators, which draws from some of the latest experiences in adaptation M&E, is intended to systematically present various indicators from a range of sectors that track different aspects of the adaptation context, process and results,

  36. Adaptation impactmeasurement in practice – GCF projectexample Source: GCF approved project: Strengthening the resilience of smallholder farmers in the Dry Zone to climate variability and extreme events through an integrated approach to water management, Sri Lanka

  37. Adaptation impactmeasurement in practice – GCF projectexample Source: GCF approved project: Strengthening the resilience of smallholder farmers in the Dry Zone to climate variability and extreme events through an integrated approach to water management, Sri Lanka

  38. Summary and tools for measuring mitigation and adaptation impact

  39. MRV forMitigation M&E for Adaptation Impact measurementformitigationandadaptation- characteristics Measurement: definebaseline, indicators, datamanagementsystem Monitoring: Gatherdata on progressandachievement Reporting on quantitative and qualitatitvedata Evaluation: Draw conclusionstoassesstheimpacts  Establish a results-basedmonitoringsystemincluding a setofindicatorstomeasuretheimpact Verificationofinformationprovidedby different organisations at domestic and international levels Qualitative datais not only relevant formonitoringofadaptationactivities but also formeasuringmitigationefforts!

  40. Impact measurementformitigationandadaptation – tools Link Green Climate Fund GCF indicative indicators A list of indicative indicators for all six GCF investment criteria has been agreed upon by the GCF Board in June 2016. GCF applicantsarerequestedtorespondto all sixinvestmentcriteria but onlytheapplicableand relevant sub-criteriaandindicativeassessmentfactors.

  41. Key take-aways Right balance of indicators:Forboth, mitigationandadaptationprojectsitis vital tochoose a good mix ofindicators (qualitative, quantitaive, economic etc.) toreflectreality. Resources and tools for support: Avarietyofresourcesexisttosupportthedevelopmentofindicatorsandthemeasurementofclimatechangeimpactprovidinginformation such asdata , sample indicators, measurementmethodologies etc. Indicators are crucial to measure project impact: Besides financial returns (in the case of debt or equity-finances projects), impact is in the center of interest of the fund or financial institution financing the project. Itisthereforeof vital importancetodevelopcredibleindicatorsthathelptrackprojectimpact.

  42. Thank you for your attention!!!

  43. List of references and recommended readings: • Mitigation • Clean Development Mechanism methodologyhttps://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/documentation/index.html • EU Emissions Trading Schemehttps://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets/monitoring_en • GHG Protocol Source-specific Emissions Calculation Methods http://ghgprotocol.org/calculation-tools • GIZ 2014: MRV Tool: How To Set up National MRV Systems.https://www.transparency-partnership.net/mrv-tool-how-set-national-mrv-systems • Gold Standard https://www.goldstandard.org/ • ISO 14064 (Parts 1 and 2)https://www.iso.org/standard/38381.html (part 1)https://www.iso.org/standard/38382.html (part 2) • Policy and Action Standardhttp://www.ghgprotocol.org/policy-and-action-standard • Verified Carbon Standardhttp://www.v-c-s.org/

  44. List of references and recommended readings: • Adaptation: • ci:grasp 2.0: The Climate Impacts: Global and Regional Adaptation Support Platformhttp://pik-potsdam.de/cigrasp-2/ • Climate-EvalCommunity of Practice 2015: Good practice study on Principles for Indicator Development, Selection, and Use in Climate Change Adaptation Monitoring and Evaluation.https://www.climate-eval.org/sites/default/files/studies/Good-Practice-Study.pdf • GIZ 2011: Adaptation made to measure. A guidebook to the design and results-based monitoring of climate change adaptation projectshttps://gc21.giz.de/ibt/var/app/wp342deP/1443/wp-content/uploads/filebase/me/me-guides-manuals-reports/GIZ-2013_Adaptation_made_to_measure_second_edition.pdf • GIZ 2014: Repository of Adaptation Indicators.http://www.adaptationcommunity.net/?wpfb_dl=221 • GIZ 2014: The Vulnerability Sourcebook http://www.adaptationcommunity.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/giz_sbv_EN_suppl_v171019_screen_NEU-3.pdf • GIZ 2017: Risk Supplement to the Vulnerability Sourcebookhttp://www.adaptationcommunity.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/giz_sbv_EN_suppl_v171019_screen_NEU-3.pdf • IPCC Data Distribution Centre http://www.ipcc-data.org/observ/index.html • UNFCCC: Handbook on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessmenthttp://unfccc.int/resource/cd_roms/na1/v_and_a/index.htm

  45. List of references and recommended readings: • Other sources: • Fayolle, V. and Odianose, S. 2017: Green Climate Fund Proposal toolkit 2017. London: Acclimatise and Climate and Development Knowledge Network. • GCF 2014: Results Measurement Framework, from: Decisions of the Board – Eighth Meeting of the Board, 14-17 October 2014. http://www.greenclimate.fund/documents/20182/239759/5.3_-_Performance_Measurement_Frameworks__PMF_.pdf/60941cef-7c87-475f-809e-4ebf1acbb3f4 • GIZ 2017: Guidebook: Writing a Green Climate Fund Funding Proposal

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