New Borders and Anomalies in the Balkans

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2. New Borders and Anomalies in the Balkans Roundtable: Croatia’s Diaspora Constituency Tihana Bartulac-Blanc Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow National Endowment for Democracy November 14 and December 11, 2007 The views expressed in this presentation represent the opinions and analysis of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Endowment of Democracy or its staff.

3. Definition • Non-geographical Constituency/Diaspora Constituency/ XI. Constituency or District: • Refers to a separate electoral unit for Croatian citizens abroad with no residence in Croatia • 396,617 registered voters in 2003; inaccurate • Most Diaspora voters (~300,000) are citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B-H) who have never lived in what is Croatia today

4. Constituencies

5. Citizenship • Act on Croatian Citizenship, Art.16: • A member of the Croatian people without residence in the Republic of Croatia can obtain Croatian citizenship if s/he meets [other requirements] of this law and if s/he provides a written statement that s/he feels Croatian.

6. Constitution (1990, a 2001) • Art.10  [Citizens Abroad] • The Republic of Croatia shall protect the rights and interests of its citizens living or residing abroad, and shall promote their links with the homeland. • Art.45  [Electoral Rights] • (2) In elections for the Croatian Parliament and for the President of the Republic, the Republic of Croatia shall ensure suffrage to its citizens who are abroad at the time of the elections, so that they may vote in the countries in which they are or in any other way specified by law.

7. Electoral Law(s) • Act on the Election of Representatives to the Croatian Parliament: • Voters who do not have residence in the Republic of Croatia shall have the right to be represented in the Parliament … (Art. 8). • Voters who do not have residence in the Republic of Croatia shall elect representatives on the basis of lists with the 14 candidates in a special constituency (Art. 40)

8. Calculating Diaspora Seats(2000, 2003, 2007) Act on the Election of Representatives to the Croatian Parliament, Art. 41 Croatia: • 2,409,240 (total voters) % 140 (seats) • =17,209 Diaspora: • 70,529 (total voters) % 17,209 • =4 seats

9. Diaspora Seats since Independence:Only One Winner

10. 2003 Parliamentary Election: Only One Constituency with One Winner

11. 2005 Presidential Election (2nd):Difference in Preferences Stjepan Mesic (Coalition) 65.93% Jadranka Kosor (HDZ) 34.07% Stjepan Mesic (Coalition) 17.44% Jadranka Kosor (HDZ) 82.56%

12. Summary of Problems • Based on a very loose link with Croatia - citizenship based on common ethnicity. • Can influence the outcome of national elections and referenda. • Diaspora is clustered in only one country. • Potential negative effects in Bosnia. • Double voting. • The number of parliamentarians could surpass the constitutional limit of 160. • Biased in favor of one party. • Does not accurately reflect the public will in Croatia.

14. IRI Poll: September 2007

15. National Polls 1: October 2007Puls for HTV and Jutarnji list Votes without Diaspora Seats without Diaspora

16. National Polls 2: October 2007Media Center for Vecernji list • HDZ 31,9% or 56 seats • SDP 30,1% or 53 seats • without Diaspora

17. Political Parties: HDZ You Tube: Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, Minister of Foreign Affairs • From HDZ Party Program: “HDZ will continue to insist on constitutional rights of Croatian citizens residing abroad, including their active and passive voting right in the parliamentary and presidential elections.”

18. Political Parties: SDP You Tube: Zoran Milanovic, SDP President • No Diaspora list for the 2007 election. • 1 elected representative for B-H, 1 for U.S. and Australia

19. Croatian Civil Society: GONG • Observing elections since 2000. • “Elections Package” --improvement of the voters’ lists; termination of the list for Diaspora, or postal vote. • A political issue, not on the agenda. • Improvement of the electoral system, clean-up of voter lists, registration of voters abroad. • Cost of election. • Observers in 50% of all polling stations in B-H. • Reported fraud among Diaspora voters in 2005 (double and ‘ghost’ voting). Court decision.

20. International Best Practices: • “The provision of the Law on Citizenship granting ethnic Croats born abroad and with no permanent residence in Croatia the right to Croatian citizenship and the right to vote remains a significant concern.” OSCE/ODIHR • “Even in advanced countries, democracy is a work in progress; it is nowhere perfect. As an electorate becomes better informed and a country’s norms change, the rules of elections need to be adjusted.” Robert A. Pastor

21. Other Country Cases • 115 states provide external vote; 11 reserve seats for Diaspora. International IDEA • Europe: France, Italy, Portugal • Latin America: Colombia, Ecuador, Panama • Africa: Algeria, Angola, Cape Verde, Mozambique • None share other key features with Croatia.

22. Recent Reforms • Mandatory registration for voters abroad. • Voters with residency in both Croatia and B-H vote in the Zagreb Constituency (~ 100,000 ). • Independent Electoral Commission and Referendum Law. • The number of polling stations in B-H increased from 30 to 124.

23. Discussion: Electoral Reforms • Participants: political parties (inter-party bargaining), civil society, observers (reports and recommendations) • Timeframe: varies, non-election year • Feasibility: Constitutional changes or electoral law (options for representation)