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1. Add a subtitle and graphic if needed Add your name and surname your position, your organization the date of your presentation Photo Credit: SohniDharti

2. Overview • Farmer adaptation and tackling food insecurity: • 1. Micro-econometric Study • Nature and Constraints to Autonomous Adaptation at the micro level • 7 sites, 1200 households, survey data, temperature and precipitation data (PMD) • 2. Political Economy Study • Institutional and historical review (1974 – current) • Evolution of Environmental Law • PE of Food, Water and ClimateChange • 3. Farmer Field Schools • Curriculum development • Master-trainer trainings

3. Methodology ,

4. Methodology cont. ,

5. For a given 5% uniform warming and 8% precipitation, 1982 values of US Southern farmlands fall by up to USD 1,000 / acre (Mendelsohn, 1994)

6. Theoretical framework • use highlights to make key words stand out and to draw attention; • keep it short and simple; • do not copy and paste entire texts; • use pictures and graphics; • summarize key points; and • practice to make sure you are under time! For given changes to warming and precipitation, what are the PKR values and % changes expected for yields, crop margins, food expenditures, and food belt contributions?

7. Comprehensive Questionnaire Design • Enables querying database, among others, for: • Plots (these can stretch/shrink, be replaced, or kept fallow) • Parcels (multiple plots, sometimes crop in plot repeats in other parcels) • Seasons (as per 1 above, plots alter with seasons) • Disaggregated cost variables (e.g., rental/operational/depreciation/opportunity cost values for equipment, labor, and other inputs by each stage of a crop cycle) • Adaptation related costs, income changes, onset dates, perceived utility of a particular measure, motivations besides climate change for given measures

8. Types of Policy Analysis enabled by the study database: • Is agricultural production diminished or less profitable owing to CC variation ? How sensitive are yields/margins to unit variation in temperature and rainfall? • What types of adjustments are farmers making ? Are these adaptation measures replicable, and at what cost and return to the government ? • Are household expenditures on food affected by adjustment costs ? Are food producing belts sustaining and increasing supply ? • What crops are likely to characterize given regions owing to changes in temperature and precipitation in coming decades? • What is the effectiveness of alternate possible government interventions? How do yields and margins of those (not) adapting fare if their counterfactuals are considered? What are returns on investment for different adaptation options?

9. From our reconnaissance …. Sanghar, December 2012 • Existing adaptation: better drainage, irrigation purchase, change in inputs Jhang: 65% practice up to 3 adaptation measures • High Awareness of Climate Change but variation in adaptation strategies RahimYar Khan: 96% practice adaptation measures – 73% practice at least 2; 23% practice up to 4. • Crop Change – primarily a response to market price of output Punjab: Rice/Cotton substitution • Alternative/off-farm employment - to offset uncertainties in agriculture • Farmers – Recall past product behaviour • GPS Coordinates – Every household, every concerned village!