1 / 15

How energy security fuels maritime security Future trajectories and challenges

How energy security fuels maritime security Future trajectories and challenges. Phillip Cornell Special Advisor to the Executive Director International Energy Agency. The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends.

pules
Télécharger la présentation

How energy security fuels maritime security Future trajectories and challenges

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. How energy security fuels maritime securityFuture trajectories and challenges Phillip Cornell Special Advisor to the Executive Director International Energy Agency

  2. The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends • Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy & limited means of intervention • Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty • MENA turmoil has raised questions about upstream investment • Some key trends are pointing in a worrying direction: • CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high • energy efficiency of global economy worsened for 2nd straight year • spending on oil imports is near record highs

  3. Emerging economies will continue to drive global energy demand World primary energy demand by regionin the New Policies Scenario Non-OECD countries account for nearly 90% of the increase in global energy demand to 2035 and China alone for 30% Other OECD 18 000 Mtoe 16 000 European Union 14 000 United States 12 000 Other non-OECD 10 000 8 000 Middle East 6 000 India 4 000 2 000 China 0 Inter-regional (bunkers) 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035

  4. Strategic Implications: New Policies Scenario • Stronger relationship between MENA producers and Asian emerging economies • Possible impacts on Saudi-US relationship – decoupling? • Fossil fuel production increasingly concentrated in MENA • Higher wealth transfers to OPEC producers • Maritime focus on Indian Ocean and SE Asia • Increased interest in maritime presence and patrolling by major emerging economies with much higher import dependencies • Reliance on MENA chokepoints (Hormuz, etc) – leave it to the 5th Fleet?

  5. Are we entering a golden age of gas? World primary energy demand by fuel in the GAS Scenario Gas overtakes coal before 2030 and meets one quarter of global energy demand by 2035 – demand grows by 2% annually, compared with just 1.2% for total energy 5 000 Oil Mtoe Gas 4 000 Coal Biomass 3 000 Nuclear 2 000 Other renewables Hydro 1 000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035

  6. Gas demand booms in the non-OECD Comparison of average annual natural gas demand growth between the New Policies Scenario and the GAS Scenario, 2009-2035 Faster gas growth could come from more aggressive policies to support gas use, lower supply costs, more use as a transport fuel & slower growth in nuclear power Golden Age of Total gas demand Gas Scenario Power generation New Policies Scenario Industry Buildings Transport Total OECD Total non-OECD China 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

  7. Strategic Implications: Golden Age of Gas Scenario • Gulf and Australian LNG to Asian markets • Indian Ocean and SE Asian routes • European gas import increase • Russian, Arctic, and Mediterranean gas focus • Turkey as gas hub • US becomes a significant exporter

  8. Policies could radically alter the long-term energy outlook World primary energy demand by scenario In the New Policies Scenario, which takes account of enacted policies & declared intentions, demand increases by 40% between 2009 & 2035 Current PoliciesScenario 20 000 Mtoe 18 000 New Policies Scenario 16 000 14 000 450 Scenario 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035

  9. 450 Scenario Requires Significant Shift Energy efficiency measures – driven by strong policy action across all sectors – account for 50% of the cumulative CO2 abatement over the Outlook period World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 38 Gt New Policies Scenario Abatement 36 2020 2035 34 Efficiency 72% 44% 32 Renewables 17% 21% 30 Biofuels 2% 4% 28 Nuclear 5% 9% 26 CCS 3% 22% Total (Gt CO2) 2.5 14.8 24 450 Scenario 22 20 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

  10. Meeting the 2⁰C goal implies a rapid shift away from fossil fuels World primary energy demand by fuel & scenario Consumption of coal unsurprisingly falls most in favour of more nuclear & renewables, but the scope of cutting oil use is limited by a lack of commercially viable substitute fuels 5 000 Mtoe 4 000 3 000 2009 2 000 2035: New Policies Scenario 1 000 2035: 450 Scenario 0 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass & waste Other renewables

  11. Climate policies would yield an early peak in oil demand World primary oil demand and average IEA crude oil import price by scenario Global oil use continues to expand on planned policies, reaching 99 mb/d by 2035, but would need to use less than 80 mb/d to achieve the 2-degree climate goal 110 Oil demand: mb/d Current Policies Scenario 100 New Policies Scenario 90 450 Scenario 80 150 Oil price (right axis): 70 100 Current Policies Scenario Dollars per barrel 60 New Policies Scenario 50 450 Scenario 50 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035

  12. ...and cut the cost of imported oil Lower oil-import requirements & international oil prices slash the oil-import bills of importing countries as a group by $8.4 trillion over 2010-2035 Oil-import bills in selected regions by scenario 600 2010 500 2035: New Policies Scenario 400 Billion dollars (2010) 2035: 450 Scenario 300 200 100 0 Japan United States India European Union China

  13. Strategic Implications: 450 Scenario • Limit wealth transfers to OPEC producers • Reduced dependence on fossil fuel imports, including seaborne • 1/3 lower import spending among China, EU, US, India, and Japan • Global oil demand peaks in 2020, below today and falling by 2035 • Refocused energy security concerns on electricity networks • Grid technology and security, including cyber • International electricity transfers, some regions still important (Desertec)

  14. Conclusions • Energy trade and imports will be significant in all scenarios • But high exposure to imports and limited supply routes can create vulnerabilities and induce competition/tension • Different mix (e.g., high-gas dependence) can alter the strategic balance • Reduced dependence fossil fuels (esp. imports) and energy in general offers significant security benefits • Energy reinforces broader strategic rise of Indian Ocean and SE Asian waters/chokepoints

  15. Thank you Phillip Cornell Special Advisor to the Executive Director International Energy Agency

More Related