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Modeling Forum Status Report

Modeling Forum Status Report. WRAP Planning Team Meeting February 22-23, 2006 John Vimont, Mary Uhl, & Kevin Briggs, Forum Co-Chairs. Modeling Forum Projects. All work handled by Regional Modeling Center University of California Riverside ENVIRON Carolina Environmental Program

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Modeling Forum Status Report

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  1. Modeling Forum Status Report WRAP Planning Team Meeting February 22-23, 2006 John Vimont, Mary Uhl, & Kevin Briggs, Forum Co-Chairs

  2. Modeling Forum Projects • All work handled by Regional Modeling Center • University of California Riverside • ENVIRON • Carolina Environmental Program • Have instituted management tools during 2004-05 • Increased monthly conference call and reporting frequency • Detailed periodic reports (2004 RMC annual, 2002 Model Performance) • Plans for mid-2006 report and Final Project report by 12/06 • Modeling simulation specification sheets & coordinator (Gerry Mansell)

  3. Modeling Forum Projects • 2006 objectives • Help states get past BART modeling hurdle • Finish regional modeling for 12/2007 haze plans • Document and archive model results • RMC Project has been ongoing since 2000-01, plan is to conclude the project by 12/2006 – need for future RMC?

  4. Completed Tasks - 2005 • Completed several modeling simulations • Base02a – actual 2002 emissions • Plan02a – actual 2002 emissions, except for Fire which used 2000-04 “average/representative” data • Base18a – projected growth and control of point/area/all mobile emissions, held fire, dust, and commercial marine emissions constant to Plan02a values • Emissions processing – all SSJF, EF, FEJF, DEJF, TDDWG EIs to date are included • 1999 Mexico EI now usable in regional model • Fire sensitivity modeling – well underway, complete in 3 months • Model performance – new EPA CMAQ v4.5 released in Fall 2005 • CAMx PSAT – source apportionment model benchmarking and emissions processing

  5. 2006 Ongoing/Pending Tasks • BART modeling support • Get everyone on a timeline • 36km met data to states handling CalPuff on their own, if desired • BART modeling protocol & CalPuff runs for AK, NM, NV, SD • Others (See table following slide) – what about AZ & UT? • Then, back to lots of regional modeling • Base02b, plan02b, Base18b • BART impacts across the region • Sensitivity and control strategy runs • Final runs for Technical Support System & planning support • Documentation • Mid-year 2006 report • Final report 12/2006 • Archive data and results

  6. Tom to fill in BART help status by state

  7. Regional Modeling - Future Needs • Archive modeling results and data after 2006 • On-going funding? • For maintaining data • For limited staff support, data transfers, and question-answering • Where and other questions not discussed in any detail to date • Forum is not requesting any other new projects in 2007

  8. Regional Haze Implementation Questions • Need regional modeling after 2006? • Probably, but not to the scale of the present RMC team • Should the Forum work to improve modeling tools and techniques after 2006, and when? • When should the Forum start gearing up for the next round of SIP review and update?

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