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Returns to higher education – some doubts and alternative views

Returns to higher education – some doubts and alternative views. John Thompson. Student choice. Whether to study What to study Where to study. Why go to university?.

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Returns to higher education – some doubts and alternative views

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  1. Returns to higher education – some doubts and alternative views John Thompson

  2. Student choice • Whether to study • What to study • Where to study

  3. Why go to university? “Universities transform lives - the typical graduate earns £31,000 a year as against £19,000 a year for a non-graduate. “ Willetts “on average, graduates tend to earn substantially more than people with A-levels who did not go to university. Projected over a working lifetime, the difference is something like £100,000” – Directgov

  4. Population • Students at English state schools and colleges • At least two A-levels or equivalents • At key stage 5 in 2008

  5. Student choice • Whether to study • What to study • Where to study

  6. Student choice • Whether to study • What to study • Where to study

  7. Earnings differentials for male and female graduates compared to non-graduates with 2+ A-levels

  8. Earnings differentials for male and female graduates compared to ALL non-graduates with 2+ A-levels

  9. Student choice • Whether to study • What to study • Where to study

  10. Student choice • Whether to study • What to study • Where to study

  11. Mis-selling?

  12. Policy development

  13. Policy development • How many places should be funded? • Share paid from the public purse? • Subject subsidy?

  14. Social returns • Productivity versus sorting • Impact on others • Who is affected?

  15. Social returns • Productivity versus sorting • Impact on others • Who is affected?

  16. Social returns • Productivity versus sorting • Impact on others • Who is affected?

  17. From estimates to policy

  18. The cost of student loans

  19. The catch “You must agree to repay your loan with the regulations at the time the repayments are due and as they are amended”

  20. What should be done?

  21. Those estimating • Set out all assumptions • Range estimates covering different scenarios • Detailed descriptions • Data extracts and intermediate datasets

  22. Pundits, politicians, policy makers When advising prospective students:- • Be circumspect In policy discussions:- • Do not treat approximate and uncertain estimates as hard facts

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