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First Phase of the Central Asia South Asia Regional Electricity Market (CASAREM)

First Phase of the Central Asia South Asia Regional Electricity Market (CASAREM). March 2012. The CASAREM Vision. Kazakhstan. Reserves. :. Oil. 30 billion bbl. Natural Gas. 8 5. TCF. Coal. 31.3 billion tons. Kyrgyz. st. an. Hydro Power. 20,000 M. W. Reserves. :. Oil.

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First Phase of the Central Asia South Asia Regional Electricity Market (CASAREM)

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  1. First Phase of theCentral Asia South Asia Regional Electricity Market (CASAREM) March 2012

  2. The CASAREM Vision

  3. Kazakhstan Reserves : Oil 30 billion bbl Natural Gas 85 TCF Coal 31.3 billion tons Kyrgyz st an Hydro Power 20,000 M W Reserves : Oil 0.04 billion bbl Natural Gas 0.2 TCF Coal 0 .9 billion tons Hydro Power 26 , 0 00 M W Uzbekist an Reserves : Oil 594 m illion bbl Natural Gas 66 TCF Coal 3.3 billion tons Hydro Power 1 , 7 00 M W Turkmeni stan Taji kist an Reserves : Reserves : Oil 600 m illion bbl Oil 0.01 billion bbl Natural Gas 280 TCF Natural Gas 0.2 TCF Coal Modest Coal 3.6 billion tons Hydro Power Modest Hydro Power 40 , 0 00 M W Central Asian Republics are Endowed with Vast Energy Resources

  4. South Asian Countries Face Severe Electricity Shortages with Rapidly Increasing Demand

  5. CASA-1000, the First Phase of CASAREM, would Support 1,300 MW of Clean Electricity Trade Between Central Asia (Kyrgyz Republic & Tajikistan) and South Asia (Afghanistan & Pakistan)

  6. Project Components • 500 kV line Datka-Khudjand (477 km), with Tajik network transferring Kyrgyz exports to Sangtuda • Tajikistan Grid Strengthening • 1300 MW AC-DC Convertor Station at Sangtuda • 750 km HVDC line Sangtuda-Kabul-Peshawar • 300 MW Convertor Station at Kabul (with both import & export capability) • 1300 MW DC-AC Convertor Station at Peshawar

  7. A Challenging but Transformative Project

  8. Significant Benefits to all Countries

  9. Feasibility Study update confirms Soundness of Project

  10. Estimates of Summer Surplus based on Existing Generation Projects Only Combined Surplus (GWh) in the base case would reduce every year Summer Surplus, in the base case scenario, has been estimated by using: Generation from existing plants only over the projection period; and The countries’ demand based on GDP growth and other relevant factors. Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan have been exporting power to neighbors (up to 2.5 TWh annually ) and spilling water from the reservoirs without any generation.

  11. Feasibility Study Demand forecast Higher than Other Studies Estimates

  12. CASA-1000 is Economically Viable Even with Conservative Estimates of Surplus • The base case economic analysis gives a Benefits to Cost ratio of 1.34 and EIRR1 of 15.6% {excludes benefits of GHG reduction and Telecom connectivity). • Sensitivity: New generation added enabling a constant yearly exportable surplus of 4 TWh - Benefits to Cost ratio of 2.11 and EIRR of 20.8% • Sensitivity: Opportunity cost of US$ 0.20/kWh for Pakistan - Benefits to Cost ratio of 2.89 and EIRR of 31.9% 1- EIRR: Economic internal rate of return.

  13. Huge Difference in Cost of Electricity between importing and exporting countries

  14. Project Cost Estimates As per the Feasibility Study

  15. Major Milestones

  16. Project building blocks – Current Status

  17. Next Steps

  18. Donor Participation The US State Department, AusAid, DFID, ADB, Islamic Development Bank, USAID, IFC and the World Bank are among the donors who have supported pre-preparation activities of the project to-date. • Donors who attended the Sept 2011 IGC Meeting in Bishkek include: Islamic Development Bank, JICA, KfW, Eurasian Development Bank, DFID, EBRD, IFC, USAID, US State Dept, Russia, China.

  19. CASA-1000 Project Timeline 2006-2013 2006-2008 2009 - 2011 2012-2013

  20. World Bank Engagement in Energy and Water • Around US$ 3 billion in energy-water project investment commitments • Development Policy Operations (DPOs) to advance fundamental energy policy reforms at the national level – Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan • Analytical, institutional development and investment support being provided under the umbrella of the Central Asia Energy Water Development Program • Kyrgyz Republic • Improving water management systems • Urgent rehabilitation of generation assets, electricity , gas and heat distribution • Winter energy support • Policy Operations – for energy development strategy, tariff reforms, and energy governance • Tajikistan • Fergana valley water resources & watershed management • Policy Operations – budget control, tariff and governance reforms • Climate resiliency pilot- Adaptation investments • Energy loss reduction • Winter energy management support • Power supply options study; Assessment study for proposed RogunHPP & Rehabilitation for NurekHPP • Afghanistan • Improve electricity supply and access in major towns on the North East Power system ; • Improve revenue collection and distribution efficiency. • Rehabilitate power generation capacity (e.g.Naghlu, Mahipar) • Demand side energy efficiency • Irrigation rehabilitation • Pakistan • Reduce excessive dependence on costly imported oil by expanding indigenous hydropower (e.g. Tarbela) and improving efficiency of gas supply. • Improving sector financial condition and strengthening the sector, jointly with other development partners. • TA for capacity building on all aspects of water resource management including feasibilities of new hydro. • Regional Programs • Central Asia – South Asia (CASA) electricity exports • Analytic work with regional institutions – International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) • Afghanistan-Pakistan trade facilitation and customs Reforms

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