Addressing the Low Carbon Skills Challenge (16.03.11)

1. Addressing the Low Carbon Skills Challenge (16.03.11) Phil Ford : Skills Strategy Manager

2. The prospects for construction in Scotland • According to latest ONS data construction output in Scotland in the first half of 2010 was 11% up on the previous half year and 8% above the same period of 2009 in current prices • The strongest sectors in the first half of 2010 were infrastructure, public non-residential and industrial construction, the last albeit from a very low base • New orders were also stronger in the first half of the year than they have been for a while – up by 23% compared with the previous half year and 10% compared with the first half of 2009 • Other evidence on the strength of construction in Scotland is more mixed. The Experian monthly survey of activity shows an index of under 50 for March to July, indicating falling activity, although it did go over 50 for August and September. The FMB’s activity balance for Scotland has remained negative throughout 2010 so far

3. Output in Scotland

4. Long term trends in Scottish construction

5. Employment forecasts for Scotland

6. Annual recruitment requirement for Scotland

7. Regional/devolved nation comparisons – output and employment Average annual output growth rate, %, 2011-2015 Total employment growth rate, %, 2011-2015 UK average UK average

8. “ No one should underestimate the sheer scale of the opportunity the transition to a low carbon economy will offer the construction industry. The requirement for low carbon construction is probably the biggest change management programme that the industry has faced since Victorian times." Government's chief construction adviser Paul Morrell: March 2010

9. Low Carbon Timeline - Scotland Outcome Policies/Drivers Deadlines Renewables Action Plan 31% energy generated from a renewable source 2011 Kyoto Protocol – Interim Targets 12.5% CO2 reduction targets for UK 2012 Zero Waste Plan 50% waste recycled and composted. 14% waste used for energy and 36% waste to landfill 2013 Fuel poverty to be eradicated as far as possible Phased zero net carbon emissions - space heating, hot water, lighting and ventilation by 2016-17 Fuel Poverty Zero Carbon 2016 Climate Change Act Renewables AP Renewable Heat AP Zero Waste Plan 42% reduction in CO2 emissions 80% renewable generation 11% heat generated from renewable sources 60% waste recycled and composted 25% waste used for energy and 15% waste to landfill 2020 Zero Waste Plan 70% waste recycled and composted 25% waste used for energy and 5% to landfill 2025

10. Other Drivers for Change • Policy/Regulation • Energy Efficiency Action Plan • Scottish Building Regulations • Low Carbon Economic Strategy • Sustainable Procurement Action Plan • Green Deal • Electricity/gas prices increasing – North Sea Grid • Feed in Tariffs/Renewable Heat Incentive • Technology - Pace of change with new products and processes • Social/community considerations in new developments

11. Impact on Skills 5 Broad Areas of Focus: • Microgeneration – solar, PV, wind, biomass, heat pumps • Macro generation – hydro, wave, tidal, wind • Energy Efficiency – retrofit/building fabric • Innovative Methods of Construction – offsite manufacture, new technologies/materials, lean construction etc) • Waste Areas of skills impact: • Qualifications (Modern Apprenticeships, SVQs etc) and multi-skilling • Accreditation Schemes and recognition of competence • Flexible delivery models

12. Key Questions • What is the current and future demand for low carbon skills, training and qualifications? • What is the current and future required capacity within the supply side to deliver these low carbon skills? • What actions need to be taken in the short, medium and long term to balance the demand and supply equation?

13. Measures and Installers – who does what?

14. Potential Number of Homes benefiting from various measures Source: Consultation on the energy efficiency action plan for Scotland, October 2009

15. Total number of FTE equivalent jobs estimated to be linked to energy efficiency and micro generation measures in Scotland, 2010-2020

16. Potential Training Demand for Solid Wall Insulation: 2010 – 2020 Source: ConstructionSkills

17. Impact on Qualifications UK Contractors Group Large regional Bldg contractors Civil Engineering Contractors Industry Activity Big SMEs and R&M Specialist Contractors Fusion Offsite Activity Modern Methods 2000-2008 Traditional Construction 1920 - 2000 Built Heritage Pre 1919 Qualifications New credit system to meet changing needs ConstructionSkills and Partner SSCs Apprentices Existing qualifications expanded to address carbon agenda Refurb / Insulator quals Training and quals + Manufacturers

18. Qualifications Construction Industry Housing Commercial Blg Public Blg Civil Eng Energy New build R & M Offices, Hotels, Supermarkets Education, NHS, Defence, MOJ Road, Rail, Water etc Wind, wave, Nuclear, Groundsource etc Pre 1919 New Refurb New Refurb Social Speculative 1920+ Craft, management and professional occupations

19. Training/qualification framework in home building sector for a volume housebuilder Construction Industry Productivity Climate Change Waste Energy Housing • WRAP • Recycling • Waste Minimisation • Waste management Plan • People waste • Mitigation • Adaptation • Usage and minimisation of: • Carbon • Water • Energy • Offsite activity and type • Lean Manufacturing • Robotics New build Existing Stock Social Speculative • Building Regulations • Flooding • Renewable energies • Air tightness • Cold Bridging • Building Regs Part J • Retrofit renewables • Insulation • Condensation

20. Registration/Accreditation • Certification of Construction: Electrical Installations; Drainage, Plumbing and Heating work. • Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS): operates to support the installation of a range of microgeneration technology, which is now linked to the Feed-In Tariff. To be eligible for the FIT an installation must be carried out by an MCS accredited installer. • Energy Assessors: have to by certified by an approved organisation, which is an institute who have signed an agreement with Scottish Ministers. • Competence cards: there are a number of card schemes that operate across the construction industry such as CSCS/SCORE etc

21. Meeting the Challenge • Consistent methodology to determine demand and supply • Qualifications and MA reform (new and existing) • Promotion of Career pathways across the Built Environment • Clarity over routes to competence and accreditation schemes • ‘Training the Trainers’ • Flexibility of funding and training delivery

22. Questions?